4 ms·

Case fatality has been declining for sure, but it's still at about 3%. So it shouldn't be that hard to find a signal. https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-

Case fatality has been declining for sure, but it's still at about 3%. So it shouldn't be that hard to find a signal. https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-0 https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-0 https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpmd/104/6/article-p2176.xml https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpmd/104/6/article-p2176...

alvah 5y ago
The reported CFR may be in that region, but most credible sources estimate a much lower real CFR, due both to many undetected / asymptomatic infections, and confusion between deaths with & deaths caused by Covid-19. For a statistical reporting agency such as the ABS to claim to know the actual CFR with any level of certainty seems careless at the very least.
- jjeaff 5y ago
  Case fatality ratio is only counting diagnosed cases. Unknown, asymptomatic cases are irrelevant.
- robbiep 5y ago
  The term you are looking for is IFR
- scoopertrooper 5y ago
  The ABS clearly sets out their method for calculating CFR, which is covid deaths divided by confirmed infections. Yes, that is only a proxy for the overall all infection fatality rate. However, given the contact tracing, testing, and medical systems have been quite robust in Australia, it shouldn't be too far off the mark. Furthermore, the 3% figure only applies to the population as a whole. According to the ABS, CFR climbs to over 30% for people 80 and over. Similarly, a recent American study found it to be about 21% [1]. So, back to the original point, it should be very easy to find a mortality signal in a RCT, which included that cohort. [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.09.21255193v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.09.21255193v...
  - nradov 5y ago
    The actual infection fatality ratio is nowhere near 3%. The US CDC estimated it at 0.6%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

alvah 5y ago

The reported CFR may be in that region, but most credible sources estimate a much lower real CFR, due both to many undetected / asymptomatic infections, and confusion between deaths with & deaths caused by Covid-19. For a statistical reporting agency such as the ABS to claim to know the actual CFR with any level of certainty seems careless at the very least.

jjeaff 5y ago
Case fatality ratio is only counting diagnosed cases. Unknown, asymptomatic cases are irrelevant.
robbiep 5y ago
The term you are looking for is IFR
scoopertrooper 5y ago
The ABS clearly sets out their method for calculating CFR, which is covid deaths divided by confirmed infections. Yes, that is only a proxy for the overall all infection fatality rate. However, given the contact tracing, testing, and medical systems have been quite robust in Australia, it shouldn't be too far off the mark. Furthermore, the 3% figure only applies to the population as a whole. According to the ABS, CFR climbs to over 30% for people 80 and over. Similarly, a recent American study found it to be about 21% [1]. So, back to the original point, it should be very easy to find a mortality signal in a RCT, which included that cohort. [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.09.21255193v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.09.21255193v...
- nradov 5y ago
  The actual infection fatality ratio is nowhere near 3%. The US CDC estimated it at 0.6%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...