6 ms·

Yeah, that's a claim I made, out of ignorance. It seems the chinese were lucky like the russians while the Bronze Age folks were not so lucky. So I guess we s

by raducu 5y ago

Yeah, that's a claim I made, out of ignorance. It seems the chinese were lucky like the russians while the Bronze Age folks were not so lucky. So I guess we should invest more in asteroid defense.

nkoren 5y ago
We should. I've seen an analysis which concluded that your chances of dying in a meteor impact are about the same as your chances of dying in a car crash -- eg., really quite high. This doesn't sound right, because at as an individual, you're obviously far more likely to die in a car crash -- it's extremely unlikely that you'll personally die from a meteor impact. However in the very rare event that you are killed by an impact, then there's a very high probability that anywhere from tens of thousands to tens of millions will also be killed by the same event. So overall the numbers roughly balance out, and are high enough to be worth taking seriously. Fortunately there are groups that are doing just that: https://b612foundation.org/ https://b612foundation.org/
- vkou 5y ago
  The main problem here is that detecting a city-killer meteor before it hits you is incredibly difficult, which really puts a damper on your ROI. Meteors large enough to detect are both incredibly rare, and are very difficult to deal with, and meteors too small to detect will hit you before you see them. Not to mention that any detection will come with very large uncertainty bars. Suppose that you somehow discover that a ~500 KT meteor (Like the Chelyabinsk bolide - which was only ~20 meters across - good luck figuring out an accurate orbit for it) is an impact risk. The overwhelming majority of the Earth is covered with water. The overwhelming majority of the rest is... Not densely populated. And observations put it at a 0.5% chance of striking the Earth next year, with zero ability to predict which part of the Earth will be struck. That's the most likely outcome of a detection program. Not '100% chance', not '90% chance', but a '0.5% chance of a rock that's scary only if you're in its immediate path'. Is that worth doing anything about?
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
    What's the cost of a nuclear missile (or X chosen method?) Whats the cost of NYC turning in a smoldering crater * 0.5% (or whatever)? The cost of all rockets ever launched is a pittance compared to NYC real estate Also there is a project for a space telescooe spesifically designed to locate asteroids, its not that difficult or even expensive. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope
    - dr_zoidberg 5y ago
      Having nuclear missiles ready at all times, all over the world (near populated areas) is a risk on its own... In a politically stable world without conflicts, sure, but we haven't had that kind of world for centuries...
      - kadoban 5y ago
        That's true, but we already have that. There's nukes all over the place. Not in all countries, but many.
        yesenadam 5y ago
        > Not in all countries, but many. In 9 out of 195 countries.
        kadoban 5y ago
        True (I think? Right ballpark anyway). But, how much of the population does that cover? Between China and India to start with, should be quite a lot. And then you have alliances, the US has nukes in Europe and submarines a bunch of places. And that's just all the publicly known ones.
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
aaron695 5y ago
You were exactly correct. All these stories are bullshit of course. Indiana Jones style tales. Literally from the Bible for top post. Read the account, that's not even close to anything like a air burst. It's hail if anything to a normal person - "Stones fell like rain in the Ch’ing-yang district. The larger ones were 4 to 5 catties (about 1.5 kg), and the smaller ones were 2 to 3 catties (about 1 kg). Numerous stones rained in Ch'ing-yang. Their sizes were all different. The larger ones were like goose's eggs and the smaller ones were like water-chestnuts. More than 10,000 people were struck dead. All of the people in the city fled to other places."
noisy_boy 5y ago
Veritasium did pretty good video about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wrc4fHSCpw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wrc4fHSCpw

by raducu 5y ago

Yeah, that's a claim I made, out of ignorance. It seems the chinese were lucky like the russians while the Bronze Age folks were not so lucky. So I guess we should invest more in asteroid defense.

nkoren 5y ago

We should. I've seen an analysis which concluded that your chances of dying in a meteor impact are about the same as your chances of dying in a car crash -- eg., really quite high. This doesn't sound right, because at as an individual, you're obviously far more likely to die in a car crash -- it's extremely unlikely that you'll personally die from a meteor impact. However in the very rare event that you are killed by an impact, then there's a very high probability that anywhere from tens of thousands to tens of millions will also be killed by the same event. So overall the numbers roughly balance out, and are high enough to be worth taking seriously. Fortunately there are groups that are doing just that: https://b612foundation.org/ https://b612foundation.org/

vkou 5y ago
The main problem here is that detecting a city-killer meteor before it hits you is incredibly difficult, which really puts a damper on your ROI. Meteors large enough to detect are both incredibly rare, and are very difficult to deal with, and meteors too small to detect will hit you before you see them. Not to mention that any detection will come with very large uncertainty bars. Suppose that you somehow discover that a ~500 KT meteor (Like the Chelyabinsk bolide - which was only ~20 meters across - good luck figuring out an accurate orbit for it) is an impact risk. The overwhelming majority of the Earth is covered with water. The overwhelming majority of the rest is... Not densely populated. And observations put it at a 0.5% chance of striking the Earth next year, with zero ability to predict which part of the Earth will be struck. That's the most likely outcome of a detection program. Not '100% chance', not '90% chance', but a '0.5% chance of a rock that's scary only if you're in its immediate path'. Is that worth doing anything about?
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  What's the cost of a nuclear missile (or X chosen method?) Whats the cost of NYC turning in a smoldering crater * 0.5% (or whatever)? The cost of all rockets ever launched is a pittance compared to NYC real estate Also there is a project for a space telescooe spesifically designed to locate asteroids, its not that difficult or even expensive. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope
  - dr_zoidberg 5y ago
    Having nuclear missiles ready at all times, all over the world (near populated areas) is a risk on its own... In a politically stable world without conflicts, sure, but we haven't had that kind of world for centuries...
    - kadoban 5y ago
      That's true, but we already have that. There's nukes all over the place. Not in all countries, but many.
      - yesenadam 5y ago
        > Not in all countries, but many. In 9 out of 195 countries.
        kadoban 5y ago
        True (I think? Right ballpark anyway). But, how much of the population does that cover? Between China and India to start with, should be quite a lot. And then you have alliances, the US has nukes in Europe and submarines a bunch of places. And that's just all the publicly known ones.
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]

aaron695 5y ago

You were exactly correct. All these stories are bullshit of course. Indiana Jones style tales. Literally from the Bible for top post. Read the account, that's not even close to anything like a air burst. It's hail if anything to a normal person - "Stones fell like rain in the Ch’ing-yang district. The larger ones were 4 to 5 catties (about 1.5 kg), and the smaller ones were 2 to 3 catties (about 1 kg). Numerous stones rained in Ch'ing-yang. Their sizes were all different. The larger ones were like goose's eggs and the smaller ones were like water-chestnuts. More than 10,000 people were struck dead. All of the people in the city fled to other places."

noisy_boy 5y ago

Veritasium did pretty good video about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wrc4fHSCpw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wrc4fHSCpw