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China Evergrande contagion concerns rile global markets
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- TylerE 5y agoThis is going to tank Bitcoin also, because a large amount of Tether's backing assets are Evergrande paper.
- LamdbaMamba 5y agoCitation needed. They say they don't hold Evergrande paper. Is that true? Who knows. But we actually don't know who's paper Tether holds.
- WJW 5y agoThere is some beautiful irony in the fact that bitcoin got started partly as a protest against the banking crisis of 2008, which was due to falling real estate prices causing a wave of defaults spreading through the financial system. Now, 13 years later, falling real estate prices may cause a wave of defaults spreading through the crypto-financial system. The wheel of time turns...
- NicoJuicy 5y agoAny source? It seems tether is denying it ( but I don't believe them much though, i just want a trust worthy source. Ugh )
- anm89 5y agoThis a game of telephone where you seem to be giving a 5th hand version of the initial news. There was a lot of speculation that because tether is holding a lot of commercial paper they would have some exposure to Evergrande. No one ever proved that amount. Tether claims the exposure is 0. There is no particular reason that tether would have a large portion of it's portfolio in the paper of a single company. So when you say "a large amount of Tether's backing assets" that statement is not only baseless but is just unlikely to be true.
- protoax 5y agoShould be noted that Tether have publicly denied holding any Evergrande paper.
- WalterSear 5y agoFwiw, their lawyer sidestepped the question of whether they hold Chinese real estate paper by bringing up the ratings claimed in Tether's attestations. https://twitter.com/bitcoinlawyer/status/1439261738067767297 https://twitter.com/bitcoinlawyer/status/1439261738067767297
- tracedddd 5y agoAm I missing something? The link you posted directly links to a clear statement that they don’t and never will hold. Where’s the sidestepping?
- WalterSear 5y agoThey stated they've never held Evergrande paper. Evergrande isn't the only distressed real estate developer in China. https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/1435720036073807884 https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/14357200360738078...
- sdrawkcabmai 5y agoTether denies: https://thedeepdive.ca/tether-denies-holding-commercial-paper-issued-by-troubled-real-estate-developer-evergrande/ https://thedeepdive.ca/tether-denies-holding-commercial-pape.... But that said, who knows? Tether isn't exactly reputable. Could still be affected by contagion in general Chinese paper.
- dystopiabreaker 5y agoactually, it's going to make Bitcoin go to the Moon because Tether is shorting Evergrande paper! Both the above and your statement have the same level of evidence behind them. We don't know what Tether's balance sheet is, and we don't know how that affects Bitcoin.
- didntknowya 5y agoi'd say they're more likely to hold no paper than Evergrande paper
- gammarator 5y ago"Cash-strapped developer China Evergrande Group has begun repaying investors in its wealth management products with real estate... The company said in a WeChat post dated Saturday that investors interested in redeeming wealth management products for physical assets should contact their investment consultants or visit local offices." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/evergrande-begins-repaying-investors-with-discounted-properties-bloomberg-news-2021-09-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/evergrande-begins-repayi...
- tg180 5y agoDo they have $300+ billion in real estate assets? In this case the risk of contagion of the whole sector is not negligible.. If they are flooding the real estate market with properties, the value of a building decreases for everyone.
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago> Do they have $300+ billion in real estate assets? If you believe that, I have a bridge in Xiangcheng to give you.
- WalterSear 5y agoThe contagion can't spread to the rest of the sector... because the rest of the sector is already involved. https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/1435720036073807884 https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/14357200360738078...
- galuggus 5y agoIt helps that the government can set prices
- tibbydudeza 5y agoI would not live in any of their apartments - cutting corners i.e more sand than actual cement in the concrete mix. Google tofu-dreg buildings and you will see.
- pengaru 5y ago> cutting corners i.e more sand than actual cement in the concrete mix There's supposed to be more sand than cement in concrete. It's something like 1:2:4 of cement:sand:gravel.
- tibbydudeza 5y agoI saw a video of somebody poking a stick into a wall and it just came apart like sand/rocks - so cement was too little. The worst was the rebar that you could bend with your hand like toffee.
- abduhl 5y agoLocalized defects like you're describing are generally a result of poor placement rather than an issue with the mix. And I think you'd be surprised at how easy it is to bend rebar anchored in concrete. Pretty much anything below a #8 (roughly a 25M in metric; 1 inch diameter) can be bent by hand or, worst case, with a pipe.
- pengaru 5y agoRight, and when doing such a large job, at least in the USA, the concrete would be getting delivered by a third-party material services company. From what I recall (my dad had a concrete construction company back in the day) the material services co. played a significant role in selecting appropriate mix ratios and additives for the application and conditions. They're not going to be deliberately sending out a mix with insufficient binders, especially not on such a massive order. The whole system runs on credit; the material services company doesn't get paid for the concrete they delivered until the whole job gets paid, sometimes years later. So they're incentivized to be quite involved and engaged in the whole process and ensuring success to the maximum extent available to them. The last thing they want is some finger-pointing lawsuits over a faulty mix getting in the way of collecting payment, or worse, get stuck with the bill of demolishing and disposing it all for a redo on top of it.
- TechBro8615 5y agoThis week on 4chan I learned of the volcano eruption and the Evergrande bankruptcy trouble before I found any mainstream coverage of either one. This is not an abnormal occurrence with news stories, with similar patterns occurring even for Covid in Dec 2019. Same goes for ZeroHedge, which is maybe one rung above 4chan in the information laundry cycle. Most stories like this seem to progress clearly through a spectrum of speed vs. noise. They emerge in high-speed, high-noise sources like 4chan, then tumble toward low-speed, low-noise sources. There are many sequences, but one common progression is 4chan > ZeroHedge > Federalist > Fox > CNN. Sometimes it feels like the only way to understand the truth of a story is to observe this cycle from end to end. But it’s exhausting, and requires too much time. I wonder if anyone is working on a solution to this. I would love a news app where users curate the news into “stories” with automated scrapers finding every related article and comments section. I want to view the story and trace it back to its origin without needing to observe it in real time. Give me a timeline, with automatically archived pages and screenshots.
- jareklupinski 5y agoi think there's too much money to be made in such an aggragator to release it to the public. if you can trace a tip back to 4chan and use that to beat the market...
- TechBro8615 5y agoWell that’s the thing. You can retrospectively trace the tip back after it’s become a story. But before then, you can’t really tell signal from the noise.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- genericone 5y agoOn the other hand, I've noticed some channels on Youtube have been talking about the Evergrande collapse for multiple weeks.
- relativ575 5y ago