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Show this graph for just the last 4-5 months, not from the beginning of the pandemic.

by malshe 5y ago

timr 5y ago
That's a fair point, and it's a difficult analysis to do for every state simultaneously, but even a cursory look at the data shows that it's not as dramatic as has been claimed. The majority of Florida's Covid deaths happened prior to March 2021: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/ By this source, ~32k of Florida's deaths happened prior to March 1, and now they're at ~51k. So 32k/51k = 63% of Florida's deaths happened prior to mass vaccination. For NY the equivalent percentage is 48k / 55k = 87%: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ So yes, Florida has had 19k deaths (vs New York's 7k deaths) since vaccines became available, but they also did substantially better than New York throughout 2020 and early 2021, despite far fewer restrictions for nearly all of that time. It isn't a simple narrative.
- tzs 5y ago
  New York had a huge number of deaths early. They went from around 10 on Apr 1 2020 to 120 on May 1 2020 (all numbers are cumulative per 100k). They were at 153 by Jun 1 2020. From June 1 2020 to the end of 2020 they had an additional 40. In the first 6 months of 2021 they added 80. Since then they have added 7. Florida was still around 10 by June 1 2020. From June 1 to the end of 2020 they added 90. In the first 6 months of 2021, Florida added 75. Since then they have added 63. Comparing, Florida did substantially better than New York for the first 10% of the time since the pandemic started. For the second half of 2020 New York had less than half the death rate of Florida. In the first half of 2021 they were close. Then, in the era of widespread vaccine availability New York has dropped an order of magnitude from where they were in the first half of 2021 whereas Florida has merely dropped about 20%.
  - timr 5y ago
    > Comparing, Florida did substantially better than New York for the first 10% of the time since the pandemic started. For the second half of 2020 New York had less than half the death rate of Florida. In the first half of 2021 they were close. That's unique to New York, which had a particularly skewed distribution. Compare to Illinois (which also had severe restrictions), where most of the mortality was in winter 2020: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/ Or to California (same pattern), which has a higher age-adjusted mortality rate than FL, despite some of the most ridiculously over-the-top restrictions in the country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/ Or to Pennsylvania, which is similar overall: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/pennsylvania/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/pennsylvania/ You really have to cherry-pick the data to make the argument that this is because of policy decisions around NPIs. The patterns being described here have as much to do with seasonality as anything else, and if you don't control for that fact, then any argument is simply pointless. That's all I'm saying. These simple narratives that "Florida didn't do $my_preferred_intervention, and look how that turned out!" are far more heat than light. If $preferred_intervention were really as effective as claimed, then it would be simply unambiguous that they're doing worse. Instead, they're about mid-pack for overall mortality. In the big natural experiment of Covid responses, there's no clear signal that anything works, other than vaccination. > Then, in the era of widespread vaccine availability New York has dropped an order of magnitude from where they were in the first half of 2021 whereas Florida has merely dropped about 20%. OK. I'm not entirely sure what point you're trying to make with this. Is it that Florida isn't vaccinating people, and that's why the mortality rate is higher in summer 2021? Florida is at 66% partial vaccination, vs. New York's 69.9%: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-trac... Again, seasonality plays a huge role here, and the media narrative is hyperbolic. I expect that the northeastern states will see a mortality increase in the fall, because they always do, even before SARS-CoV2. Meanwhile, Florida's wave will probably fall.

Show this graph for just the last 4-5 months, not from the beginning of the pandemic.

by malshe 5y ago

Show this graph for just the last 4-5 months, not from the beginning of the pandemic.

timr 5y ago

That's a fair point, and it's a difficult analysis to do for every state simultaneously, but even a cursory look at the data shows that it's not as dramatic as has been claimed. The majority of Florida's Covid deaths happened prior to March 2021: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/ By this source, ~32k of Florida's deaths happened prior to March 1, and now they're at ~51k. So 32k/51k = 63% of Florida's deaths happened prior to mass vaccination. For NY the equivalent percentage is 48k / 55k = 87%: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ So yes, Florida has had 19k deaths (vs New York's 7k deaths) since vaccines became available, but they also did substantially better than New York throughout 2020 and early 2021, despite far fewer restrictions for nearly all of that time. It isn't a simple narrative.

tzs 5y ago
New York had a huge number of deaths early. They went from around 10 on Apr 1 2020 to 120 on May 1 2020 (all numbers are cumulative per 100k). They were at 153 by Jun 1 2020. From June 1 2020 to the end of 2020 they had an additional 40. In the first 6 months of 2021 they added 80. Since then they have added 7. Florida was still around 10 by June 1 2020. From June 1 to the end of 2020 they added 90. In the first 6 months of 2021, Florida added 75. Since then they have added 63. Comparing, Florida did substantially better than New York for the first 10% of the time since the pandemic started. For the second half of 2020 New York had less than half the death rate of Florida. In the first half of 2021 they were close. Then, in the era of widespread vaccine availability New York has dropped an order of magnitude from where they were in the first half of 2021 whereas Florida has merely dropped about 20%.
- timr 5y ago
  > Comparing, Florida did substantially better than New York for the first 10% of the time since the pandemic started. For the second half of 2020 New York had less than half the death rate of Florida. In the first half of 2021 they were close. That's unique to New York, which had a particularly skewed distribution. Compare to Illinois (which also had severe restrictions), where most of the mortality was in winter 2020: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/ Or to California (same pattern), which has a higher age-adjusted mortality rate than FL, despite some of the most ridiculously over-the-top restrictions in the country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/ Or to Pennsylvania, which is similar overall: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/pennsylvania/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/pennsylvania/ You really have to cherry-pick the data to make the argument that this is because of policy decisions around NPIs. The patterns being described here have as much to do with seasonality as anything else, and if you don't control for that fact, then any argument is simply pointless. That's all I'm saying. These simple narratives that "Florida didn't do $my_preferred_intervention, and look how that turned out!" are far more heat than light. If $preferred_intervention were really as effective as claimed, then it would be simply unambiguous that they're doing worse. Instead, they're about mid-pack for overall mortality. In the big natural experiment of Covid responses, there's no clear signal that anything works, other than vaccination. > Then, in the era of widespread vaccine availability New York has dropped an order of magnitude from where they were in the first half of 2021 whereas Florida has merely dropped about 20%. OK. I'm not entirely sure what point you're trying to make with this. Is it that Florida isn't vaccinating people, and that's why the mortality rate is higher in summer 2021? Florida is at 66% partial vaccination, vs. New York's 69.9%: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-trac... Again, seasonality plays a huge role here, and the media narrative is hyperbolic. I expect that the northeastern states will see a mortality increase in the fall, because they always do, even before SARS-CoV2. Meanwhile, Florida's wave will probably fall.