It also didn't pay to be optimistic in 1968 or in 1998-1999 (perhaps peak optimism, peak irrational exuberance). 1968-1982, the S&P 500 essentially went nowher

It also didn't pay to be optimistic in 1968 or in 1998-1999 (perhaps peak optimism, peak irrational exuberance). 1968-1982, the S&P 500 essentially went nowhere. 1998-2012, the S&P 500 essentially went nowhere. Those dead periods represent ~28 out of the last ~53 years. That's a long time for the market to produce mediocre results, especially compared to expectations today. The long-term chart and valuations of the S&P 500 are looking pretty comical at this point, in terms of irrational exuberance in the present. It's pricing in an extraordinary economic golden era of super growth, which isn't going to happen.