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This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) https://www

This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canadas-west-fraser-expand-five-its-us-sawmills-sales-boom https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canada... This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. The price increase was a result of a usual 90 day delivery for new contracted lumber and nobody anticipating people would actually try to build houses in winter time (which they did). A lot of production was wound down and supply contracted out in the future was pulled to earlier dates leaving future contracted lumber demand unfilled leading to price spike and then a crash after extra supply was brought online. All the information is available but you have to pay for this. There are companies specializing in getting this info for you daily by calling lumber mills. Fwiw, timber itself is only up about 10% (comparable with 2010 prices)

renewiltord 5y ago
Oh, very interesting. Honestly, I have no problem receiving the information after all its trade value is exhausted. Not looking to trade in this area. Is expired info available for free somewhere?
- mrcode007 5y ago
  Unfortunately a lot of the information never gets released after it’s usefulness has expired. On the bright side, a lot of reports are available for free from the government sources.
mettamage 5y ago
> This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. If you're up for it could you teach me a bit about this? I'm new to commodities (lumber, gold, etc.). My email is in my profile.
- MarcelOlsz 5y ago
  Mind looping me in as well if you get a response? Profile is also in my bio.
  - mettamage 5y ago
    I'll pass it forward :)
imtringued 5y ago
> This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) Yeah and that was obviously the entire idea about the trump tariffs. Saw mills in the USA are insufficient, that's the point of the tariffs, those jobs are supposed to come back when capacity is being increased.
- mrcode007 5y ago
  Those jobs never left. The largest lumber producer in the world, from Canada, operates saw mills in the USA. They don’t pay tariffs on product made in the USA. Side note, the tariffs are always paid on import by the importer. Not by the exporter. Imposing tariffs on foreign goods usually raises prices for the end buyer. Here is more information including a 7% job growth for loggers https://www.bls.gov/ooh/farming-fishing-and-forestry/mobile/logging-workers.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/farming-fishing-and-forestry/mobile/...
ghshephard 5y ago
As I read this story: ""Low mortgage rates, low volumes of homes available for resale, favorable demographics, increasing acceptance of remote working and the underlying housing construction deficit due to several years of underbuilding appear to be positively influencing the demand for new housing in North America," the company wrote in an earnings report. "Economists are forecasting U.S. housing starts for 2021 to be approximately 1.5 million units, an increase of nearly 9% over 2020. An aging housing stock and increased repair and renovation spending should also continue to drive strong lumber, plywood and OSB demand."" The price increase was not relevant to their expansion, but long term trends in which the price increase was irrelevant.

renewiltord 5y ago

Oh, very interesting. Honestly, I have no problem receiving the information after all its trade value is exhausted. Not looking to trade in this area. Is expired info available for free somewhere?

mrcode007 5y ago
Unfortunately a lot of the information never gets released after it’s usefulness has expired. On the bright side, a lot of reports are available for free from the government sources.

mettamage 5y ago

> This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. If you're up for it could you teach me a bit about this? I'm new to commodities (lumber, gold, etc.). My email is in my profile.

MarcelOlsz 5y ago
Mind looping me in as well if you get a response? Profile is also in my bio.
- mettamage 5y ago
  I'll pass it forward :)

imtringued 5y ago

> This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) Yeah and that was obviously the entire idea about the trump tariffs. Saw mills in the USA are insufficient, that's the point of the tariffs, those jobs are supposed to come back when capacity is being increased.

mrcode007 5y ago
Those jobs never left. The largest lumber producer in the world, from Canada, operates saw mills in the USA. They don’t pay tariffs on product made in the USA. Side note, the tariffs are always paid on import by the importer. Not by the exporter. Imposing tariffs on foreign goods usually raises prices for the end buyer. Here is more information including a 7% job growth for loggers https://www.bls.gov/ooh/farming-fishing-and-forestry/mobile/logging-workers.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/farming-fishing-and-forestry/mobile/...

ghshephard 5y ago

As I read this story: ""Low mortgage rates, low volumes of homes available for resale, favorable demographics, increasing acceptance of remote working and the underlying housing construction deficit due to several years of underbuilding appear to be positively influencing the demand for new housing in North America," the company wrote in an earnings report. "Economists are forecasting U.S. housing starts for 2021 to be approximately 1.5 million units, an increase of nearly 9% over 2020. An aging housing stock and increased repair and renovation spending should also continue to drive strong lumber, plywood and OSB demand."" The price increase was not relevant to their expansion, but long term trends in which the price increase was irrelevant.