I'm not sure this is so clear. Google's first prediction market had 1,463 traders (>10% of the company at the time) and produced >250k predictions (though >50%

I'm not sure this is so clear. Google's first prediction market had 1,463 traders (>10% of the company at the time) and produced >250k predictions (though >50% of those were from trading bots). The market was a surprisingly accurate forecaster too: http://static.googleusercontent.com/media/services.google.com/en//blog_resources/google_prediction_market_paper.pdf http://static.googleusercontent.com/media/services.google.co...