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I wonder how quickly North Korea’s nuke problem would be solved, if the US quietly let China know that if NK stays nuclear, the US will support Japan and Taiwan

I wonder how quickly North Korea’s nuke problem would be solved, if the US quietly let China know that if NK stays nuclear, the US will support Japan and Taiwan developing nuclear weapons. With Japan and Taiwan’s industrial sector and precision machinery, how long before they could develop nuclear bombs and ICBMs, maybe a few months?

Sebguer 5y ago
Do you want WW3? Because this is how you get WW3.
the-dude 5y ago
This is the most stupid idea I have read in a while.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> With Japan and Taiwan’s industrial sector and precision machinery, how long before they could develop nuclear bombs and ICBMs, maybe a few months? Longer than the conventional invasion of Taiwan and destruction of its regime would take.
- numpad0 5y ago
  I believe they call this the “beheading” scenario - a small group of PRC ninjas could infiltrate ROC and surgically remove the government, causing the nation to de-exist, after which a swift invasion takes place. It won’t take a full week and they won’t last weeks afterwards. Only protection against that is American presence in the region.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > Only protection against that is American presence in the region. No, the only protection is Chinese belief that the US is willing to engage in full-scale war to protect Taiwan; “presence in the region” but not specifically at risk in Taiwan doesn't necessarily acheive that (ask Ukraine!)
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      Not even that. Full-scale war is preferable to nuclear Taiwan for them. The Chinese are very confident they could invade Taiwan before the US would be able to get through their A2/AD shield, and they would probably be right. In other words, they're quite confident they would win the war as far as Taiwan is concerned. China sees a nuclear-armed Taiwan as an existential threat.
- Chris2048 5y ago
  What did conventional wisdom say about how well the US would do in Afghanistan? Or Vietnam? Plus, it the US supported the development of nuclear weapons, why not the loan of nuclear weapons?
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    The US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq quite rapidly, it's the counterinsurgency that was the issue. That's not a problem for Taiwan, it's an island with nowhere for insurgents to hide or flee to. In a China vs Taiwan conflict, the Taiwanese would lose any and all ports and airstrips in the first 6 hours, and would be completely unable to receive any US help from then on. The Taiwanese state is meanwhile so deeply infiltrated that there is no chance the nukes could arrive before the PRC knew. Beyond that, both Afghanistan and Vietnam are countries thousands of kilometers away from the US that the average person absolutely doesn't care about and that pose zero real threat.
sudosysgen 5y ago
The end result is that Taiwan would become a Chinese colony, Japan would get nukes to no appreciable geostrategic gain, and the entire economy would absolutely crater, killing millions of people.
- krapp 5y ago
  Japan getting nukes would actually make their political situation much worse.
- Chris2048 5y ago
  > Taiwan would become a Chinese colony If that's the case, why isn't it already?
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Because of economic issues that would arise, as I touched on in the end. There's no reason for China not to wait 30 years to be in an even better position and create reliable enough supply chains and allies so that their economy cannot be rattled significantly by the US.
soheil 5y ago
> I wonder how quickly North Korea’s nuke problem would be solved, if the US quietly let China know that if NK stays nuclear, the US will support Japan and Taiwan developing nuclear weapons. You're describing a nightmarish nuclear arms race scenario [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_arms_race https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_arms_race
adventured 5y ago
If you were going to give/allow Taiwan nuclear weapons to protect itself, you'd have wanted to do it decades ago. And you wouldn't support them in developing nuclear weapons, you'd want to have quietly slipped nukes into Taiwan several decades ago. China was far less advanced in the 1980s and 1990s, it might have been possible to arm Taiwan with nukes back then, before China could stop it. Today if China found out Taiwan were attempting to develop nuclear weapons, they'd either invade and conquer the island in rapid fashion (at whatever cost necessary), or potentially glass it entirely (that's a serious consideration for China, and a good reason not to give Taiwan nukes at this point).
FpUser 5y ago
>""I wonder how quickly North Korea’s nuke problem would be solved, if the US quietly let China know that if NK stays nuclear, the US will support Japan and Taiwan developing nuclear weapons." Agile approach to solving world's problems?

Sebguer 5y ago

Do you want WW3? Because this is how you get WW3.

the-dude 5y ago

This is the most stupid idea I have read in a while.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> With Japan and Taiwan’s industrial sector and precision machinery, how long before they could develop nuclear bombs and ICBMs, maybe a few months? Longer than the conventional invasion of Taiwan and destruction of its regime would take.

numpad0 5y ago
I believe they call this the “beheading” scenario - a small group of PRC ninjas could infiltrate ROC and surgically remove the government, causing the nation to de-exist, after which a swift invasion takes place. It won’t take a full week and they won’t last weeks afterwards. Only protection against that is American presence in the region.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Only protection against that is American presence in the region. No, the only protection is Chinese belief that the US is willing to engage in full-scale war to protect Taiwan; “presence in the region” but not specifically at risk in Taiwan doesn't necessarily acheive that (ask Ukraine!)
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Not even that. Full-scale war is preferable to nuclear Taiwan for them. The Chinese are very confident they could invade Taiwan before the US would be able to get through their A2/AD shield, and they would probably be right. In other words, they're quite confident they would win the war as far as Taiwan is concerned. China sees a nuclear-armed Taiwan as an existential threat.
Chris2048 5y ago
What did conventional wisdom say about how well the US would do in Afghanistan? Or Vietnam? Plus, it the US supported the development of nuclear weapons, why not the loan of nuclear weapons?
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  The US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq quite rapidly, it's the counterinsurgency that was the issue. That's not a problem for Taiwan, it's an island with nowhere for insurgents to hide or flee to. In a China vs Taiwan conflict, the Taiwanese would lose any and all ports and airstrips in the first 6 hours, and would be completely unable to receive any US help from then on. The Taiwanese state is meanwhile so deeply infiltrated that there is no chance the nukes could arrive before the PRC knew. Beyond that, both Afghanistan and Vietnam are countries thousands of kilometers away from the US that the average person absolutely doesn't care about and that pose zero real threat.

sudosysgen 5y ago

The end result is that Taiwan would become a Chinese colony, Japan would get nukes to no appreciable geostrategic gain, and the entire economy would absolutely crater, killing millions of people.

krapp 5y ago
Japan getting nukes would actually make their political situation much worse.
Chris2048 5y ago
> Taiwan would become a Chinese colony If that's the case, why isn't it already?
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Because of economic issues that would arise, as I touched on in the end. There's no reason for China not to wait 30 years to be in an even better position and create reliable enough supply chains and allies so that their economy cannot be rattled significantly by the US.

soheil 5y ago

> I wonder how quickly North Korea’s nuke problem would be solved, if the US quietly let China know that if NK stays nuclear, the US will support Japan and Taiwan developing nuclear weapons. You're describing a nightmarish nuclear arms race scenario [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_arms_race https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_arms_race

adventured 5y ago

If you were going to give/allow Taiwan nuclear weapons to protect itself, you'd have wanted to do it decades ago. And you wouldn't support them in developing nuclear weapons, you'd want to have quietly slipped nukes into Taiwan several decades ago. China was far less advanced in the 1980s and 1990s, it might have been possible to arm Taiwan with nukes back then, before China could stop it. Today if China found out Taiwan were attempting to develop nuclear weapons, they'd either invade and conquer the island in rapid fashion (at whatever cost necessary), or potentially glass it entirely (that's a serious consideration for China, and a good reason not to give Taiwan nukes at this point).

FpUser 5y ago

>""I wonder how quickly North Korea’s nuke problem would be solved, if the US quietly let China know that if NK stays nuclear, the US will support Japan and Taiwan developing nuclear weapons." Agile approach to solving world's problems?