8 ms·

YouTube Channel Polymater had a video about how NK would basically follow a' eternal cycle of "firing missiles to annoy everyone" / "get sanctionned" / "negocia

YouTube Channel Polymater had a video about how NK would basically follow a' eternal cycle of "firing missiles to annoy everyone" / "get sanctionned" / "negociate with the Us by promising to stop launching missiles" / "get sanctions lifted" / rinse and repeat. The cycle would go on forever, as long as China would not ditch support for NK. And of course, China would never get rid of such a powerful way to annoy everyone else. NK would never actually attack, as it would kill their bluff and give everyone a good reason to convince China to wipe them out. So this would be yet another episode. It's not "Mutually Assured Destruction", but "Perpetually Assured Annoyance".

Brave-Steak 5y ago
> China would never get rid of such a powerful way to annoy everyone else It's not just this. China doesn't want a unified, Western-friendly Korea directly on its border. They also don't want the mass refugees if NK fails.
- kbenson 5y ago
  I don't think they were necessarily referring to getting rid of NK as much as NK's tactic of firing missiles. China could presumably influence to NK to not launch missiles at neighbors while still supporting it as a separate state, it's just not in their interest to do that either.
  - Y_Y 5y ago
    Maybe that influence could take the form of not supplying them with fuel and materials and technology?
  - michael1999 5y ago
    A guard dog needs teeth.
  - pasabagi 5y ago
    >China could presumably influence to NK to not launch missiles at neighbors. Very questionable. If you read about the Rangoon bombing[0] the short of it is the Chinese passed on a note from the NKs to the Americans requesting trilateral talks, essentially vouching for them, just prior to the bombing. Apparently, Deng Xaiping said afterwards he'd never let 'that motherfucker' (Kim Jong Il) set foot on chinese soil as long as he lived, and apparently, KJI never did. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rangoon_bombing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rangoon_bombing
  - lumost 5y ago
    NK is a wildcard that China doesn't have a great way to get out of. They're just as likely to annoy China for more aid as they are to annoy other countries to remove sanctions. All of the pathways to a rational NK have outcomes that China would not like including both collapse of the North Korean state, hostility between China and NK or variations on unification between SK and NK. The only stable option is to work with NK too slowly migrate towards a modern Chinese communism approach over the span of decades through the use of aid money, advisors, economic exchange, and educational programs. This only risks periodic regression via purges within North Korea.
nostrademons 5y ago
I've heard North Korea described as "A small country with just one export: fear."
fleaaaa 5y ago
It's been like this for 6 decades, also worth noting that one of the major party in SK relies on this behavior for its co-dependent "prosperity".. Once, it even paid NK to bluff like this just before the presidential election for the sake of power consolidation. It was a huge and messy scandal. I find that relationship basically a parasite and host, and now they're likely going to win for election in next year.
bserge 5y ago
Aka "Time for the regular aid request". Either from China for being a good pe(s)t or the UN and US for promising to stop nuclear tests. The fact that their population suffers famine nearly every goddamn year is just unbelievably sad. How those people put up with it, I don't understand. They really managed to create a feudal country in a modern world. Could others do the same if left unchecked?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- trhway 5y ago
  >How those people put up with it, I don't understand. People en masse are willfully gullible when it comes for propaganda. Just look at the vaccine mandates. I myself is from USSR, and when i see photos from NK i see that my past, and i really don't know how they today (or we back then) could get out of that situation until the system crumbles on its own. >Could others do the same if left unchecked? Do you see any other way for Afghanistan for example?
baron_harkonnen 5y ago
> China would never get rid of such a powerful way to annoy everyone else. I've mentioned this in another comment, but you're severely underestimating the real relationship between North Korea and China. For the government, maybe it is only a strategic relationship, but if you talk to anyone who grew up in China there is a real feeling of kinship with the people that live in NK. For a long time there has been a lot of cultural exchange between the nations and many Chinese near the border are indistinguishable culturally from North Koreans. An attack on North Korea, even if a justifiable retaliation, would feel like an attack on the Chinese people for a great many everyday people in China. The closest analog to the US would be Canada. Most American's, especially in the North, feel that Canadians are very culturally similar. Many people in far Northern states have friends and family in Canada. Overall the bond is much closer than with Mexico, which has more culture, ethnic and linguistic differences. Imagine if Canada were ruled by a despot, who then irrationally launched a nuclear strike on another country. Even if American's were to feel that that was wrong, we would also still likely strongly defend Canadian people from aggressive retaliation. And this analogy is far from perfect, the sense I've gotten in conversations with Chinese about North Korea is that they're much closer.
- qeternity 5y ago
  > An attack on North Korea, even if a justifiable retaliation, would feel like an attack on the Chinese people for a great many everyday people in China. I lived in Beijing for a while and I can’t say I agree with this. For sure, China is an enormous country with much cultural surface area, so I could be wrong. But this does not strike me as an obvious conclusion.
  - arcanon 5y ago
    The Korean War: USA afraid of communisms spread. Sends MacArthur to Korea. He crushes the Korean communists. USA believes it to be a clean sweep. Mao surprise s USA with massive army encirclement of USA forces. USA forced to flee south and hold the line that became demarcation between north and south. There is a 0% chance China would allow the USA to take NK. They also love provoking Japan. Their entire origin story is about fighting against the Japanese in the 30s.
vmception 5y ago
Sorry, whats the downside of turning them into the biggest glass exporter here?
- COGlory 5y ago
  The deaths of a lot of innocent people.
- Redoubts 5y ago
  A bunch of artillery pointed at Seoul, on a hair trigger.
- mullen 5y ago
  Really Pissing off China Mass Murder Nuclear Fallout
digianarchist 5y ago
What worries me is an accidental strike that kicks off a new Cold War.
polote 5y ago
> YouTube Channel Polymater had a video about how NK would basically follow a' eternal cycle ... Tips of the day, don't put too much trust into Youtube videos. There are just random dudes/girls who are good with a video editor. And most of the content they produce is either from Wikipedia or their own random opinion. And for something as serious are NK I wouldn't trust anything that is said by a youtube video

Brave-Steak 5y ago

> China would never get rid of such a powerful way to annoy everyone else It's not just this. China doesn't want a unified, Western-friendly Korea directly on its border. They also don't want the mass refugees if NK fails.

kbenson 5y ago
I don't think they were necessarily referring to getting rid of NK as much as NK's tactic of firing missiles. China could presumably influence to NK to not launch missiles at neighbors while still supporting it as a separate state, it's just not in their interest to do that either.
- Y_Y 5y ago
  Maybe that influence could take the form of not supplying them with fuel and materials and technology?
- michael1999 5y ago
  A guard dog needs teeth.
- pasabagi 5y ago
  >China could presumably influence to NK to not launch missiles at neighbors. Very questionable. If you read about the Rangoon bombing[0] the short of it is the Chinese passed on a note from the NKs to the Americans requesting trilateral talks, essentially vouching for them, just prior to the bombing. Apparently, Deng Xaiping said afterwards he'd never let 'that motherfucker' (Kim Jong Il) set foot on chinese soil as long as he lived, and apparently, KJI never did. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rangoon_bombing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rangoon_bombing
- lumost 5y ago
  NK is a wildcard that China doesn't have a great way to get out of. They're just as likely to annoy China for more aid as they are to annoy other countries to remove sanctions. All of the pathways to a rational NK have outcomes that China would not like including both collapse of the North Korean state, hostility between China and NK or variations on unification between SK and NK. The only stable option is to work with NK too slowly migrate towards a modern Chinese communism approach over the span of decades through the use of aid money, advisors, economic exchange, and educational programs. This only risks periodic regression via purges within North Korea.

nostrademons 5y ago

I've heard North Korea described as "A small country with just one export: fear."

fleaaaa 5y ago

It's been like this for 6 decades, also worth noting that one of the major party in SK relies on this behavior for its co-dependent "prosperity".. Once, it even paid NK to bluff like this just before the presidential election for the sake of power consolidation. It was a huge and messy scandal. I find that relationship basically a parasite and host, and now they're likely going to win for election in next year.

bserge 5y ago

Aka "Time for the regular aid request". Either from China for being a good pe(s)t or the UN and US for promising to stop nuclear tests. The fact that their population suffers famine nearly every goddamn year is just unbelievably sad. How those people put up with it, I don't understand. They really managed to create a feudal country in a modern world. Could others do the same if left unchecked?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
trhway 5y ago
>How those people put up with it, I don't understand. People en masse are willfully gullible when it comes for propaganda. Just look at the vaccine mandates. I myself is from USSR, and when i see photos from NK i see that my past, and i really don't know how they today (or we back then) could get out of that situation until the system crumbles on its own. >Could others do the same if left unchecked? Do you see any other way for Afghanistan for example?

baron_harkonnen 5y ago

> China would never get rid of such a powerful way to annoy everyone else. I've mentioned this in another comment, but you're severely underestimating the real relationship between North Korea and China. For the government, maybe it is only a strategic relationship, but if you talk to anyone who grew up in China there is a real feeling of kinship with the people that live in NK. For a long time there has been a lot of cultural exchange between the nations and many Chinese near the border are indistinguishable culturally from North Koreans. An attack on North Korea, even if a justifiable retaliation, would feel like an attack on the Chinese people for a great many everyday people in China. The closest analog to the US would be Canada. Most American's, especially in the North, feel that Canadians are very culturally similar. Many people in far Northern states have friends and family in Canada. Overall the bond is much closer than with Mexico, which has more culture, ethnic and linguistic differences. Imagine if Canada were ruled by a despot, who then irrationally launched a nuclear strike on another country. Even if American's were to feel that that was wrong, we would also still likely strongly defend Canadian people from aggressive retaliation. And this analogy is far from perfect, the sense I've gotten in conversations with Chinese about North Korea is that they're much closer.

qeternity 5y ago
> An attack on North Korea, even if a justifiable retaliation, would feel like an attack on the Chinese people for a great many everyday people in China. I lived in Beijing for a while and I can’t say I agree with this. For sure, China is an enormous country with much cultural surface area, so I could be wrong. But this does not strike me as an obvious conclusion.
- arcanon 5y ago
  The Korean War: USA afraid of communisms spread. Sends MacArthur to Korea. He crushes the Korean communists. USA believes it to be a clean sweep. Mao surprise s USA with massive army encirclement of USA forces. USA forced to flee south and hold the line that became demarcation between north and south. There is a 0% chance China would allow the USA to take NK. They also love provoking Japan. Their entire origin story is about fighting against the Japanese in the 30s.

vmception 5y ago

Sorry, whats the downside of turning them into the biggest glass exporter here?

COGlory 5y ago
The deaths of a lot of innocent people.
Redoubts 5y ago
A bunch of artillery pointed at Seoul, on a hair trigger.
mullen 5y ago
Really Pissing off China Mass Murder Nuclear Fallout

digianarchist 5y ago

What worries me is an accidental strike that kicks off a new Cold War.

polote 5y ago

> YouTube Channel Polymater had a video about how NK would basically follow a' eternal cycle ... Tips of the day, don't put too much trust into Youtube videos. There are just random dudes/girls who are good with a video editor. And most of the content they produce is either from Wikipedia or their own random opinion. And for something as serious are NK I wouldn't trust anything that is said by a youtube video