44 ms·

Deaths 21 days or more after second dose: .89% Percent of all Covid Deaths That seems like great news?

by rkk3 5y ago

pfortuny 5y ago
Certainly. I am a bit disappointed by the “involving” qualificator, as it does not inspire much confidence on its meaning… But overall, very positive results, certainly.
- rsynnott 5y ago
  Defined in the glossary. It seems to mean where the person had an active covid infection at time of death, and excludes people who recovered from covid but died anyway.
  - pfortuny 5y ago
    Oh thanks, my bad…
allturtles 5y ago
I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.
- lmilcin 5y ago
  I think you need to read it again. Especially table 1. In the data they have they found that: 1. For all unvaccinated people, they had 38,964 covid-related deaths and 65,170 of other, non-covid-related deaths of unvaccinated people. 2. For all vaccinated people 21 days or more after second dose they found 458 covid-related and 57,263 non-covid-related deaths. It doesn't matter when these were recorded (unless we want to account for Delta, but there is not enough data for this here). So unless we are seeing huge increase in non-covid-related deaths of vaccinated people, this data suggests that vaccination makes it many, many times less likely that you are going to die of covid as compared to you dying to other things. Which I think is wonderful news to see in actual numbers from a large sample of data gathered over longer period of time. If that's is not a clear indication to you then I don't know what is.
  - tomrod 5y ago
    The ratio of Vax vs. Non-vax death proportions is 1.3%. So,50X to 100X reduction in deaths versus all-cause
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - sprawld 5y ago
    Yes although the vaccine was given first to the most vulnerable people (ie more likely to die from other things) so this still doesn't give a clear sense of the improvement. No one is doubting the effectiveness of vaccines (ok a bunch of idiots, but not me) but this isn't the most helpful stat to assess the relative improvement.
  - occamrazor 5y ago
    The data you mention provides extremely strong support for vaccine effectiveness in preventing death. The single data point in GGP post is quite useless, as GP points out.
  - allturtles 5y ago
    The elderly were prioritized in getting vaccinated, and they have a higher baseline death rate. So it's still not clear what it means that the # of non-covid deaths in (1) and (2) is roughly the same. I'm not disputing that the vaccines are effective at preventing death, but that doesn't mean that we can just point to any stat that looks good and celebrate without considering what it actually means.
    - jonplackett 5y ago
      Wouldn't that just point to the vaccine being even better than the stats suggest (by just looking at ratio of deaths of vaccinated / unvaccinated) since the vaccinated group would be the more vulnerable in the first place. Also there are more people vaccinated than not now so that would also skew the data to make a direct comparison look worse.
  - 5y ago
- rsynnott 5y ago
  About half the (total, not adult) population was vaccinated by end of May: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57313399 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57313399
- newbamboo 5y ago
  As stated in the report, “ the characteristics of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are changing over time, which limits the usefulness of comparing counts between the groups.”
  - lmilcin 5y ago
    It is still useful to be able to answer "What was your chance of dying of covid compared to all other types of deaths based on your vaccination status". Because if you can't do that you can compare data even with the status and vaccination rates changing over time. So even if we lump together all different cases at different times saying that person in this class of people had less than 1% of chance of dying to covid vs. another class where you had 30% of chance of dying to covid is a clear indication that one class was much more resistant to dying than other.
- Claudus 5y ago
  Yes, what is the the overall mortality rate for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Ballpark estimates looking at the vaccination rate over time, it seems like vaccinated people had almost double the mortality rate of unvaccinated. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations Vaccinated are less likely to die of Covid-19, but more likely to die? Not very reassuring.
  - cortesoft 5y ago
    Depends on the demographics of who gets vaccinated and who doesn't. If the elderly get vaccinated at a higher rate, it seems normal that vaccinated people would have a higher non-covid mortality rate. It is also not surprising if healthy people are less likely to get vaccinated.
    - Claudus 5y ago
      Wouldn’t the original study depend on demographics as well? If the young get vaccinated at a higher rate, it seems normal that unvaccinated people would have a higher covid mortality rate.
  - lokedhs 5y ago
    Well, if you think about who got vaccinated first, it should be pretty obvious why that is the case, don't you think?
    - tomrod 5y ago
      Aye. Stratification required here.
  - elliekelly 5y ago
    I don’t see any mortality data for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated in your link?
  - ddek 5y ago
    UK had strict age-banded rollout, starting with the eldest. By the end of this study, I had just had my first dose (I'm 27, and I booked it as soon as possible). It's not at all surprising that older populations were more likely to die.
- 0-_-0 5y ago
  From Table 1: In unvaccinated people 37.4% of all deaths was from COVID (38,964/104,134) In fully vaccinated people 0.8% of all deaths was from COVID (458/57,721) This is all amazing news! However we still don't know how much worse the vaccines are against the Delta variant, since most deaths during the period were not from the new variant. It can't be too bad though.
bedhead 5y ago
Facts like these don't matter to the COVID-obsessed. Turns out that screaming 24/7 for 18 months at people they're going to die messes with their cognitive abilities. Go figure! And here I thought doing this would keep us calm and rational. We basically have a best-case scenario today and an awful lot of people don't care and still think it's doomsday. Vaccines are fantastic at reducing COVID to a cold, kids are at no risk, the overwhelming majority of adults are at no risk, vaccines are available, natural immunity is great, and ironically, vaccines DONT stop transmission. So, we're all gonna get it, anyone who wants to be protected can be, and unvaccinated people don't matter because COVID is already endemic and we're all gonna get it so we have a clear path towards herd immunity. This is great! And here we are, instead making illogical and probably illegal rules that accomplish literally nothing, make everything worse, perpetuate irrational fear, etc. We scapegoat "the unvaccinated" and start this medical class warfare and just ramp up unnecessary hatred of each other. And worst of all, it doesn't protect anyone and probably will make COVID worse. Are we having fun yet?!
- spookthesunset 5y ago
  Linked is a fascinating dataset showing exactly what you are talking about. The average american thinks if they get covid, their odds of dying from it around 10%. In younger age brackets this is almost 1000x wrong. People are very, very badly misinformed about their risks for covid. This makes it almost impossible to have rational, grounded discussion of public policy. If everybody is walking around thinking covid is a death sentence, of course they will beg of all the crap we are doing right now. https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/ https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/
  - tehwebguy 5y ago
    Line of reasoning doesn't seem to account for ICU occupancy levels & reduces outcomes to simply "lived" vs "died" without looking at sub-outcomes under "lived" category.
    - LurkingPenguin 5y ago
      You're right. There is more nuance. For instance, many of the concerns about "long COVID" are legitimate. But even within the nuance the statistics are being used to support narratives that aren't always honest. Just look at the news that apparently 40-45% of COVID hospitalizations are actually people who were admitted for another reason and just so happened to test positive upon admission. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hos... This data changes the hospitalization narrative quite a bit.
bryan0 5y ago
I guess you could say that, but this isn't really "news". There have been a variety of studies[0][1] over the past 6 months from various countries showing the remarkable effectiveness of covid vaccines. Just some people apparently don't want to believe it. 2 random examples: [0]https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187 https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fc... [1]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-says-99-covid-deaths-since-feb-were-not-fully-vaccinated-2021-07-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-says-99-covid-dea...
- peakaboo 5y ago
  Because there are articles showing the vaccines are not effective and even dangerous as well. We can't hold two contradictory beliefs at the same time.

Deaths 21 days or more after second dose: .89% Percent of all Covid Deaths That seems like great news?

by rkk3 5y ago

Deaths 21 days or more after second dose: .89% Percent of all Covid Deaths That seems like great news?

Certainly. I am a bit disappointed by the “involving” qualificator, as it does not inspire much confidence on its meaning… But overall, very positive results, certainly.

rsynnott 5y ago
Defined in the glossary. It seems to mean where the person had an active covid infection at time of death, and excludes people who recovered from covid but died anyway.
- pfortuny 5y ago
  Oh thanks, my bad…

allturtles 5y ago

I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.

lmilcin 5y ago
I think you need to read it again. Especially table 1. In the data they have they found that: 1. For all unvaccinated people, they had 38,964 covid-related deaths and 65,170 of other, non-covid-related deaths of unvaccinated people. 2. For all vaccinated people 21 days or more after second dose they found 458 covid-related and 57,263 non-covid-related deaths. It doesn't matter when these were recorded (unless we want to account for Delta, but there is not enough data for this here). So unless we are seeing huge increase in non-covid-related deaths of vaccinated people, this data suggests that vaccination makes it many, many times less likely that you are going to die of covid as compared to you dying to other things. Which I think is wonderful news to see in actual numbers from a large sample of data gathered over longer period of time. If that's is not a clear indication to you then I don't know what is.
- tomrod 5y ago
  The ratio of Vax vs. Non-vax death proportions is 1.3%. So,50X to 100X reduction in deaths versus all-cause
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- sprawld 5y ago
  Yes although the vaccine was given first to the most vulnerable people (ie more likely to die from other things) so this still doesn't give a clear sense of the improvement. No one is doubting the effectiveness of vaccines (ok a bunch of idiots, but not me) but this isn't the most helpful stat to assess the relative improvement.
- occamrazor 5y ago
  The data you mention provides extremely strong support for vaccine effectiveness in preventing death. The single data point in GGP post is quite useless, as GP points out.
- allturtles 5y ago
  The elderly were prioritized in getting vaccinated, and they have a higher baseline death rate. So it's still not clear what it means that the # of non-covid deaths in (1) and (2) is roughly the same. I'm not disputing that the vaccines are effective at preventing death, but that doesn't mean that we can just point to any stat that looks good and celebrate without considering what it actually means.
  - jonplackett 5y ago
    Wouldn't that just point to the vaccine being even better than the stats suggest (by just looking at ratio of deaths of vaccinated / unvaccinated) since the vaccinated group would be the more vulnerable in the first place. Also there are more people vaccinated than not now so that would also skew the data to make a direct comparison look worse.
- 5y ago
rsynnott 5y ago
About half the (total, not adult) population was vaccinated by end of May: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57313399 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57313399
newbamboo 5y ago
As stated in the report, “ the characteristics of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are changing over time, which limits the usefulness of comparing counts between the groups.”
- lmilcin 5y ago
  It is still useful to be able to answer "What was your chance of dying of covid compared to all other types of deaths based on your vaccination status". Because if you can't do that you can compare data even with the status and vaccination rates changing over time. So even if we lump together all different cases at different times saying that person in this class of people had less than 1% of chance of dying to covid vs. another class where you had 30% of chance of dying to covid is a clear indication that one class was much more resistant to dying than other.
Claudus 5y ago
Yes, what is the the overall mortality rate for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Ballpark estimates looking at the vaccination rate over time, it seems like vaccinated people had almost double the mortality rate of unvaccinated. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations Vaccinated are less likely to die of Covid-19, but more likely to die? Not very reassuring.
- cortesoft 5y ago
  Depends on the demographics of who gets vaccinated and who doesn't. If the elderly get vaccinated at a higher rate, it seems normal that vaccinated people would have a higher non-covid mortality rate. It is also not surprising if healthy people are less likely to get vaccinated.
  - Claudus 5y ago
    Wouldn’t the original study depend on demographics as well? If the young get vaccinated at a higher rate, it seems normal that unvaccinated people would have a higher covid mortality rate.
- lokedhs 5y ago
  Well, if you think about who got vaccinated first, it should be pretty obvious why that is the case, don't you think?
  - tomrod 5y ago
    Aye. Stratification required here.
- elliekelly 5y ago
  I don’t see any mortality data for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated in your link?
- ddek 5y ago
  UK had strict age-banded rollout, starting with the eldest. By the end of this study, I had just had my first dose (I'm 27, and I booked it as soon as possible). It's not at all surprising that older populations were more likely to die.
0-_-0 5y ago
From Table 1: In unvaccinated people 37.4% of all deaths was from COVID (38,964/104,134) In fully vaccinated people 0.8% of all deaths was from COVID (458/57,721) This is all amazing news! However we still don't know how much worse the vaccines are against the Delta variant, since most deaths during the period were not from the new variant. It can't be too bad though.

bedhead 5y ago

Facts like these don't matter to the COVID-obsessed. Turns out that screaming 24/7 for 18 months at people they're going to die messes with their cognitive abilities. Go figure! And here I thought doing this would keep us calm and rational. We basically have a best-case scenario today and an awful lot of people don't care and still think it's doomsday. Vaccines are fantastic at reducing COVID to a cold, kids are at no risk, the overwhelming majority of adults are at no risk, vaccines are available, natural immunity is great, and ironically, vaccines DONT stop transmission. So, we're all gonna get it, anyone who wants to be protected can be, and unvaccinated people don't matter because COVID is already endemic and we're all gonna get it so we have a clear path towards herd immunity. This is great! And here we are, instead making illogical and probably illegal rules that accomplish literally nothing, make everything worse, perpetuate irrational fear, etc. We scapegoat "the unvaccinated" and start this medical class warfare and just ramp up unnecessary hatred of each other. And worst of all, it doesn't protect anyone and probably will make COVID worse. Are we having fun yet?!

spookthesunset 5y ago
Linked is a fascinating dataset showing exactly what you are talking about. The average american thinks if they get covid, their odds of dying from it around 10%. In younger age brackets this is almost 1000x wrong. People are very, very badly misinformed about their risks for covid. This makes it almost impossible to have rational, grounded discussion of public policy. If everybody is walking around thinking covid is a death sentence, of course they will beg of all the crap we are doing right now. https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/ https://covid19pulse.usc.edu/
- tehwebguy 5y ago
  Line of reasoning doesn't seem to account for ICU occupancy levels & reduces outcomes to simply "lived" vs "died" without looking at sub-outcomes under "lived" category.
  - LurkingPenguin 5y ago
    You're right. There is more nuance. For instance, many of the concerns about "long COVID" are legitimate. But even within the nuance the statistics are being used to support narratives that aren't always honest. Just look at the news that apparently 40-45% of COVID hospitalizations are actually people who were admitted for another reason and just so happened to test positive upon admission. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hos... This data changes the hospitalization narrative quite a bit.

bryan0 5y ago

I guess you could say that, but this isn't really "news". There have been a variety of studies[0][1] over the past 6 months from various countries showing the remarkable effectiveness of covid vaccines. Just some people apparently don't want to believe it. 2 random examples: [0]https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187 https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fc... [1]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-says-99-covid-deaths-since-feb-were-not-fully-vaccinated-2021-07-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-says-99-covid-dea...

peakaboo 5y ago
Because there are articles showing the vaccines are not effective and even dangerous as well. We can't hold two contradictory beliefs at the same time.