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Prediction markets are probably not a panacea, but Google's various internal implementations of them (there have been several 20% attempts) are far from proof o
by asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
Prediction markets are probably not a panacea, but Google's various internal implementations of them (there have been several 20% attempts) are far from proof of this. If the people making the predictions don't have any actual skin in the game, the economic incentive to be correct is removed. That is the secret sauce that should supposedly make prediction markets more accurate than other forecasting venues.
- AlbertCory 5y agoPeople DO bet where "ego points" are the reward, and my own personal proof is the Hollywood Stock Exchange [1]. For several years, I won my movie Meetup group's Oscar pool, just by taking all the predictions from HSX. (They don't do all the minor awards, which is a problem.) Actually using real money is a major legal hurdle, and that's why most prediction markets don't do it. The political markets have a special "research" dispensation, last I checked. [1] https://www.hsx.com/ https://www.hsx.com/
- renewiltord 5y agoIsn’t this automatically inflationary? Just joining adds $2 mm Hollywood dollars to the pool. And you can join multiple times? But it does work clearly so I must be wrong about something.
- ddp26 5y agoYou'd be surprised how motivated many Googlers are to be on a leaderboard of top traders, even without $!
- AlbertCory 5y agoRight. asdfasgasdgasdg knows nothing about prediction markets, the vast majority of which don't involve real money.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 5y agoNot enough to generate routinely accurate, non-trivial predictions, apparently.