4 ms·

Honestly, I'm curious to see how long these gains can hold, both in the stock market and in housing. It is just bananas, and I say this as someone that has had

Honestly, I'm curious to see how long these gains can hold, both in the stock market and in housing. It is just bananas, and I say this as someone that has had both types of investments since the 1980's. The crashes of 1987, 2000, and 2008 all had very clear causes. I wonder what is going to be the cause of the next crash. Or maybe I suffer from 20/20 hindsight. EDIT #1 : If housing prices crater, I'm buying another one because history shows the market recovers. Same goes for index ETFs. So people like me sitting on a big cash position and paranoid AF will have some kind of balancing effect, no? EDIT #2 : "hindsight" not "hindisight", heh.

hijinks 5y ago
I've been watching Boise as the canary in the coalmine. You are starting to see it cool down as more listings are on the market now then 3-4 months ago. Homes are going for closer to asking if not under and homes are sitting on the market longer. If Boise goes south then I feel a lot of other hot markets since covid will go 2-6 months after.
- VRay 5y ago
  That's interesting, what do you think sets Boise apart as a good leading indicator? I was thinking the same thing myself, presumably the economy will crumble from the bottom-up next time. So once my rural hometown is a flaming pile of wreckage, I'll close out all my risky positions
  - rootsudo 5y ago
    Because, there is not much manufacturing or reason for Boise or that area to really support high real estate prices. That area IMO is akin to wealth leaving core metropolitan cities and investing in areas where are close enough, yet not near a metropolitan area. Or something like that.
- Ccecil 5y ago
  Coeur d'Alene/Spokane as well. Would like to think it is going to get better but this recent spike has only left things open more for market manipulation in the rental market. Even if things get better in the housing prices there is still a huge housing issue for the people who make less than $100k a year (average rate of pay in Coeur d'alene is $20/hr, minimum wage still $7.25, waiters can be paid ~$3.60/hr plus tips). The tent cities option that Ketchum was exploring recently is a thing we are going to be seeing a lot more often.
  - kazen44 5y ago
    > The tent cities option that Ketchum was exploring recently is a thing we are going to be seeing a lot more often. i wonder how long it will take before the goverments are forced to take action? i mean, after world war 2, there was a massive housing crisis in europe because of cities turned to rubble, but thanks to massive public works programmes which created housing, this was solved relately quickly (<10 years in some cases). The free market will not solve this problem because the shortage of houses is actually netting them more money, especially with the massive amount of money pumping going on.
jwond 5y ago
People treating houses as investment vehicles are a big reason why the housing market is so awful for people looking to buy their first home.
- SavantIdiot 5y ago
  /Raises finger/ sighs /Lowers finger/ Yeah, I'm part of the problem, but I'm also scared of getting fucked. I'm approaching my 60's and have The Fear. So I'm doing this "every man for himself" thing, because buying an investment property doesn't have a face associated with it, like mugging someone. I'm conflicted, but also worried for the future.
  - HarryHirsch 5y ago
    At least you aren't running an AirBnB. Not too long ago, I started a new job and quit within the week because the housing market in the area was completely oversubscribed. You couldn't even find a bedsit within driving distance in a month's time. Some lady I was suggested to speak to had an AirBnB. Her suggestion was to live in the back of a U-haul truck while looking for something more permanent. The revolution can't come soon enough.
    - mupuff1234 5y ago
      It's sad, but I think the only way out would involve violence/riots. The system is just so incredibly inhuman - you have working class people commuting hours / working 2 shifts and barely being able to afford housing, while others just hoard houses and profit. It's all just one big sad Monopoly game.
rektide 5y ago
I'm freaking out in a similar fashion. It's bananas. Between money being practically free due to low interest rates, and the large incomes that are about, we keep feeding the beast: dumping more & more money into the stock market, into housing. Those valuations go up and up, further increasing the money supply of those with some stake. How and where does this cycle ever slow down or stop?
- SavantIdiot 5y ago
  Hang on tight, we got this!
dgudkov 5y ago
> I'm curious to see how long these gains can hold The gains can hold long. The dollar may not.

hijinks 5y ago

I've been watching Boise as the canary in the coalmine. You are starting to see it cool down as more listings are on the market now then 3-4 months ago. Homes are going for closer to asking if not under and homes are sitting on the market longer. If Boise goes south then I feel a lot of other hot markets since covid will go 2-6 months after.

VRay 5y ago
That's interesting, what do you think sets Boise apart as a good leading indicator? I was thinking the same thing myself, presumably the economy will crumble from the bottom-up next time. So once my rural hometown is a flaming pile of wreckage, I'll close out all my risky positions
- rootsudo 5y ago
  Because, there is not much manufacturing or reason for Boise or that area to really support high real estate prices. That area IMO is akin to wealth leaving core metropolitan cities and investing in areas where are close enough, yet not near a metropolitan area. Or something like that.
Ccecil 5y ago
Coeur d'Alene/Spokane as well. Would like to think it is going to get better but this recent spike has only left things open more for market manipulation in the rental market. Even if things get better in the housing prices there is still a huge housing issue for the people who make less than $100k a year (average rate of pay in Coeur d'alene is $20/hr, minimum wage still $7.25, waiters can be paid ~$3.60/hr plus tips). The tent cities option that Ketchum was exploring recently is a thing we are going to be seeing a lot more often.
- kazen44 5y ago
  > The tent cities option that Ketchum was exploring recently is a thing we are going to be seeing a lot more often. i wonder how long it will take before the goverments are forced to take action? i mean, after world war 2, there was a massive housing crisis in europe because of cities turned to rubble, but thanks to massive public works programmes which created housing, this was solved relately quickly (<10 years in some cases). The free market will not solve this problem because the shortage of houses is actually netting them more money, especially with the massive amount of money pumping going on.

jwond 5y ago

People treating houses as investment vehicles are a big reason why the housing market is so awful for people looking to buy their first home.

SavantIdiot 5y ago
/Raises finger/ sighs /Lowers finger/ Yeah, I'm part of the problem, but I'm also scared of getting fucked. I'm approaching my 60's and have The Fear. So I'm doing this "every man for himself" thing, because buying an investment property doesn't have a face associated with it, like mugging someone. I'm conflicted, but also worried for the future.
- HarryHirsch 5y ago
  At least you aren't running an AirBnB. Not too long ago, I started a new job and quit within the week because the housing market in the area was completely oversubscribed. You couldn't even find a bedsit within driving distance in a month's time. Some lady I was suggested to speak to had an AirBnB. Her suggestion was to live in the back of a U-haul truck while looking for something more permanent. The revolution can't come soon enough.
  - mupuff1234 5y ago
    It's sad, but I think the only way out would involve violence/riots. The system is just so incredibly inhuman - you have working class people commuting hours / working 2 shifts and barely being able to afford housing, while others just hoard houses and profit. It's all just one big sad Monopoly game.

rektide 5y ago

I'm freaking out in a similar fashion. It's bananas. Between money being practically free due to low interest rates, and the large incomes that are about, we keep feeding the beast: dumping more & more money into the stock market, into housing. Those valuations go up and up, further increasing the money supply of those with some stake. How and where does this cycle ever slow down or stop?

SavantIdiot 5y ago
Hang on tight, we got this!

dgudkov 5y ago

> I'm curious to see how long these gains can hold The gains can hold long. The dollar may not.