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How would that lead to more killings? It is not like activists come with an innate probability to be killed because of their work.

Hallucinaut 5y ago
I believe they're arguing there's an "innate probability" for _humans_ to be murdered.
- _Microft 5y ago
  In another thread, someone argued that it might be rather caused by an increase in mining and logging activity instead (which in turn also might lead to more activists protesting this behaviour). https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28509378 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28509378
- Ekaros 5y ago
  I would expect there is. I take lot more are murdered in absolute number now than then were let's say 40k humans on planet.
krageon 5y ago
To be fair, they definitely do. Any kind of activism that campaigns against mountains of money comes with an innate probability to be killed. I suppose you could argue that it's not innate because someone else is instigating it, but if the conflict that gives rise to the murder is in itself a property of the activism...
- _Microft 5y ago
  OK, I see your point. "Innate" was a carelessly chosen word and on closer consideration a red herring. The risk of getting killed by opponents might just be inherent to protesting in a lot of places.
TeMPOraL 5y ago
It seems they do, though. We're not talking about Extinction Rebellion people protesting outside a high school in a Western democracy, we're talking about activists working in nasty places, running interference against brutal governments and corporations. If the number of those activists is growing, then incidents of murder will be on the rise too. That is, of course, entirely orthogonal to the actual problem being: those people out there are being murdered, this needs to be stopped, and people responsible need to be brought to justice.
cm2187 5y ago
The article mentions countries like South Africa, Honduras and Mexico, that have shockingly high rates of crime and murders. If you increase the population sample you will necessarily capture more incidents that are unrelated to the activism. The question is how much of it is unrelated. I think it is a fair question.
kleiba 5y ago
Of course it wouldn't. But imagine this: you have an urn with N red and N black balls, and you draw a certain amount of balls randomly. Then you repeat the experiment, but you have replaced a certain number of black balls with an equal amount of red balls. Wouldn't you expect to see more red balls the second time around?

Hallucinaut 5y ago

I believe they're arguing there's an "innate probability" for _humans_ to be murdered.

_Microft 5y ago
In another thread, someone argued that it might be rather caused by an increase in mining and logging activity instead (which in turn also might lead to more activists protesting this behaviour). https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28509378 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28509378
Ekaros 5y ago
I would expect there is. I take lot more are murdered in absolute number now than then were let's say 40k humans on planet.

krageon 5y ago

To be fair, they definitely do. Any kind of activism that campaigns against mountains of money comes with an innate probability to be killed. I suppose you could argue that it's not innate because someone else is instigating it, but if the conflict that gives rise to the murder is in itself a property of the activism...

_Microft 5y ago
OK, I see your point. "Innate" was a carelessly chosen word and on closer consideration a red herring. The risk of getting killed by opponents might just be inherent to protesting in a lot of places.

TeMPOraL 5y ago

It seems they do, though. We're not talking about Extinction Rebellion people protesting outside a high school in a Western democracy, we're talking about activists working in nasty places, running interference against brutal governments and corporations. If the number of those activists is growing, then incidents of murder will be on the rise too. That is, of course, entirely orthogonal to the actual problem being: those people out there are being murdered, this needs to be stopped, and people responsible need to be brought to justice.

cm2187 5y ago

The article mentions countries like South Africa, Honduras and Mexico, that have shockingly high rates of crime and murders. If you increase the population sample you will necessarily capture more incidents that are unrelated to the activism. The question is how much of it is unrelated. I think it is a fair question.

kleiba 5y ago

Of course it wouldn't. But imagine this: you have an urn with N red and N black balls, and you draw a certain amount of balls randomly. Then you repeat the experiment, but you have replaced a certain number of black balls with an equal amount of red balls. Wouldn't you expect to see more red balls the second time around?