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Apple Won a Battle to Lose the War
- quelsolaar 5y agoI think this is right. This is a major blow to Apple. If you look at the 10 games on the app store, revenue goes up by 1.8x for every placement. That meant that there are a few VERY profitable games, and it drops off very quickly. My bet is that its the same for non-game apps. If the App store is that tilted, then there are few developers representing most of the revenue, and they can afford setting up an alternative payment process, and the reduced fees for these companies will be significant. They have a lot of incentives to do it. If Apple loses half of the top 40 apps, to alternative payment systems, it will mean a significant amount of revenue lost.
- playpause 5y ago> If you look at the 10 games on the app store, revenue goes up by 1.8x for every placement OT: Where can you see this kind of data?
- corentin88 5y agoSomewhat related: > And, as the injunction reveals, the vast majority of App Store billings come from gaming. Games account for approximately 70 percent of the entire App Store’s revenue, and 98 percent of in-app purchase revenue. The App Store is a game store, and more specifically, it’s a game store for massive, free-to-play games that make nearly all of their money from in-app items. Source: https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/10/22667047/apple-epic-ruling-games-app-store-fortnite-revenue-purchases-business https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/10/22667047/apple-epic-rulin...
- SSLy 5y ago>it’s a game store for massive, free-to-play games that make nearly all of their money from in-app items. Oh… It's the kind of games I never download if I see smattering of gems/crowns/coins in the IAP's.
- Tarsul 5y agothis is so eye-opening. One can only imagine how many people are addicted to those games and its casino-like mechanics.
- quelsolaar 5y agoSomeone shared information they aren't allowed to share over drinks.
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y agoOn the other hand, Apple can remove those games from the top places in AppStore, which, these days, is horrible for discovery anyway. So money will flow to the new occupants of top spots.
- username_my1 5y agothat's why the "anti-trust" laws exist.. in other law suits already apple was required to have a clear way they rank and display apps in the appstore.
- worrycue 5y agoMy guess is they will just stop doing “Top” lists and do more categorised “Featured” lists and “App Spotlight”. I think the end result will be the same, exposure for the lucky developers and potentially increased revenue. If there are other stores, antitrust no longer applies and Apple can feature whoever they want on their store front.
- Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago"editor's choice", "Games of the week", the possibilities are endless.
- bttrfl 5y agoThis could be a chicken-egg thing. If the top apps had no Apple payments perhaps they wouldn't be on the list. For an established games the discovery is probably less important though I'd imagine that lots of people buy apps just because they are top apps.
- WastingMyTime89 5y agoI think Apple knows the big blows are coming and they will most likely not come from the court but legislatively. I mean they are most likely going to lose badly in the EU anyway but the writting is on the wall regarding digital stores and restrained access to the NFC chip. Even if what they do is legal today, it will not stay that way. Considering that, it seems in their interest to milk the cow as long as they can.
- realusername 5y agoI agree for the analysis on the EU side, I don't know for other countries but the fact that France had to cripple the covid app to get it accepted will strongly play against them in the future, that "show of power" on Apple side was a terrible mistake in my opinion.
- laurent92 5y agoFrance having crippled the Covid app on iPhone but not Android is the reason I still use Apple. Despite their recent attempt at crippling privacy.
- realusername 5y agoThat wasn't really about privacy, they just enforced their guidelines.
- raxxorrax 5y agoI doubt that. Users reluctant on data sharing will mostly see government as the larger security issue.
- realusername 5y agoUsers yeah maybe, the government I don't think so. Remember that Apple was already viewed negatively due to the tax avoidance, now they are adding antitrust issues on top of tax issues.
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- skinkestek 5y agoI think the article is right that execs at Apple don't see it. They are so used to being heroes and underdogs that it will be a major shock when they finally realize that people want to see them bleed over this. (Yes, I'm an Apple customer, I love some of their products.) Same goes for Google and soon Microsoft (again). There is a limit to how far one can abuse customers and developers and still be seen as the good guys
- klodolph 5y agoI think the execs see it, they're just betting that the billions of dollars they get now will be more than what they would get otherwise. I think they botched some decisions regarding Epic (revoking certs), but the overall strategy makes sense to me.
- gman83 5y agoI think the end game for Epic and their owner Tencent is to get a foot in the door on iOS and Android to open it up to Chinese app stores, especially in markets outside of the U.S. This could potentially be good for developers, but at the same time having to support multiple app stores can get really tiresome.
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- kwere 5y agorats are escaping the ship?
- poisonborz 5y agoThis is a really interesting take. I already wanted to rebutt that Android is open and Play Store still has dominance, when I saw this: https://1z1euk35x7oy36s8we4dr6lo-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/nativex_china_market_img.png https://1z1euk35x7oy36s8we4dr6lo-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-...
- tdsamardzhiev 5y agoMany normies use Amazon store, or Samsung store, or whatever, without even realising it's a different thing.
- dep_b 5y agoI don't mind paying "The Apple Tax" on the typical 1-10 dollar one-off paid apps we had basically since 2008 or something, but if I'm going to do a recurring payment for something like Adobe Photoshop I might or might not be interested in using the App Store. For one I absolutely fucking hate everything surrounding subscriptions and Adobe and paying through Apple might save me a ton of hassle. But other companies might be able to offer a discount in a way that Apple cannot or doesn't want to, like cheaper upgrades for existing users.
- mcintyre1994 5y agoAlso no SAAS company outside of the app store is paying anywhere near 30% to their payments provider, so for something big ticket like that I'd expect them to charge a lot less if you're not buying through the App Store.
- dep_b 5y agoWhile StoreKit is one of the worst API’s in iOS to work with, it’s still cheaper to implement (and usually better) than what a lot of companies use or built themselves.
- cvwright 5y agoI can confirm this. I’ve been implementing App Store subscriptions this week and last. The StoreKit (1.0) piece is easily the worst thing I’ve had to deal with in building the whole app. But I’d still rather do this than try to build the whole payment infrastructure on my own. Here’s to hoping the new API they announced this year will be much nicer.
- AniseAbyss 5y agoI personally dislike middleman parasites and thought the internet would allow people to directly do business with creators. But then I have to admit the convenience of a single store. I think Apple wants avoid a Trivalgo or Booking.com situation were people search for hotels but book a room directly on the hotel's own website for less.
- andrewstuart 5y agoAll it takes to battle Apple is a company like Epic with essentially infinite money to spend and a vast amount at stake. Nothing less will make a dent. Independent and "small" developers - even many large developers have zero chance fighting the injustices of the tech giants.
- draw_down 5y agoI don’t understand these analyses. All it takes is someone with unlimited money? Gee, they’re really screwed now!! Everything I’m reading here seems to underscore Apple’s position of strength. TFA closes by saying that what Apple is currently doing is “not a great look”. I’m sure their leadership is really quaking in their boots over that. Jeez.
- Nextgrid 5y agoThis is where regulation should step in.
- Tsiklon 5y agoI get vibes of "IBM vs SCO" from this whole thing.
- nickflood 5y agoEpic, while huge, is 100 times smaller than Apple. Apple could buy 3 Epics from one quarterly iPhone revenue.
- yarcob 5y agoThere are a lot of Apple apologists who claim Apple's payment system is superior for the customer, but that just doesn't match my experience. I don't subscribe to a lot of services, but I find that eg. subscribing and unsubscribing from Netflix is a much nicer experience than subscribing from something that uses Apple's service. With Netflix, I know exactly where to subscribe and where to unsubscribe, and the terms are pretty clear. Apple on the other hand makes it surprisingly hard to show your active subscriptions. On the Mac, I think you have to open the Music app and click on a bunch of links that I keep forgetting. Kinda weird when Apple is supposedly known for their ease of use. It's also often unclear how it works. In one app I clicked "start 14 day trial", but ended up being charged for an annual subscription immediately. At first I was surprised, but then I thought maybe it was because I had apparently started the trial already a few years ago already. The buttons I tapped did not make that clear. And some basic things are impossible with Apple's solution: Eg. charge the Apple Music subscription to a different bank account. Nope, with Apple all your subscriptions go to a single credit card.
- franciscop 5y agoI have never used an iPhone, but IIRC Neflix is the example people usually put as the "perfect" subcription & unsubscription workflows, as in they will make your life easy to unsubscribe and that has earned them a bunch of customers over the years. So it's a bit unfair to put "the best in class" as the alternative and saying it's not as good, when virtually every other subscription system is worse than Netflix. Apple payments don't even need to be the best, they just need to be good enough since they are already the default and integrated with your phone.
- mnadkvlb 5y agoi recently tried on spotify and disney plus as well, works like a charm. The worst offenders in recent history were bloomberg (where i had to open a support case to cancel) and some other news publication. FT was the best experience in news publications. More and more services seem to be getting better in this.
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- ribit 5y agoApple will definitely have to revisit the App Store economics. Obviously, more choice is great for both the user and the developer alike, but I am a bit worried about the future of the App Store access. In my opinion, the original brilliance of the App Store model was that trying is free and you pay on success. This is a stark contrast to previous models where the developer had to bring an often significant initial investment for listing/API licensing/accounting with the success being uncertain. IMO, the App Store model is what made small-time development possible. Whatever changes they implement to offset the revenue loss from the successful apps, I hope it will be just as easy (and free) to access the App Store in the future.
- arvindamirtaa 5y agoApple may not make a lot of money from these high quality free/cheap apps from small development shops. But indirectly, that quality content is one of the reasons people buy an iOS device over an Android. Crippling that is crippling their own bottom line and they know that all too well.
- worrycue 5y agoMaybe I’m completely off the mark but I feel that if Apple isn’t making good money on their stores, they will shorten their support period for their phones. Apple will lose all incentive to makes sure their products last since their profit will come from selling new phones only - just like Android phone makers; right now Apple would rather you keep using an old iPhone and continue to give them money via the App Store than risk you switching to another brand and losing all revenue from you. I quite like my phones lasting a long time - also more electronic waste isn’t good for anyone.
- ribit 5y agoIt is difficult to foresee the practical implication of these changes. Discussion about fairness notwithstanding, Apple‘s economic model had it’s simple elegance. Frankly, I hope that they will decide to take the cut to their revenue and continue to operate the store at a lower profit, maybe even reducing the „tax“ to 10% across the board. This will be a hit to the shareholders, but who cares (I say it as a shareholder) at it will ensure that the ecosystem stays healthy. Apple should take this as an opportunity to improve the App Store instead of resting on their laurels. Also, I think the growth of the Mac business will more than offset the loss of the App Store revenue.
- jevgeni 5y agoWhat a non-article... Two points: - "the judge’s order to stop App Store anti-steering is a big one" - "bad vibes yielding bad blood within Apple’s own developer community" Rest is just filler.
- undecisive 5y agoI'm glad I'm not the only one who thought this! It's like someone wrote the article designed solely to test bias confirmation. At the end of the article, I still don't know what apple lost, or what the author thinks that apple will have lost (other than "the war"). It didn't tell me what apple did win - other than "exactly what everyone knew they would win" - gee, thanks for that one. I can't see what people are downvoting on this comment. Basically, you cannot read that article without any bias on this topic and expect to have learned something new. Maybe if I followed all the links in it, that might explain the situation - but the links are: - a series of tubes - [the next battle of] Apple v. Epic. - just maybe - they need to say - given the Japanese settlement - continues - real reforms to the App Store - they’re a lot smarter ... etc. There is absolutely no context to this non-article, and no hints where to go to get the context. Sorry. I usually try not to rant about the content that people put on the internet, but please HN community - you're usually much better at filtering the bull than this.
- jevgeni 5y agoAs someone who claims to be a writer, the author really should know better and not publish such low-value posts. Your point with the links makes it even clearer.
- stavros 5y agoI don't know why people are downvoting this (without providing a rebuttal, no less), I agree.
- jevgeni 5y agoEh... People get emotional about their pre-established opinions. :D
- Grustaf 5y agoSurely the war is "make more money than everyone else! And they don't seem to be losing that.
- AniseAbyss 5y agoWhenever I see people whining about Apple I always think: just buy a fucking Android. But then I read that in the US teens are practically bullied into suicide for not owning an iPhone so maybe it's not that simple? Apple never appealed to me in the slightest and there isn't an iMessage cult in Europe.
- bodge5000 5y agoI have problems with android, namely on data privacy (which until recently apple were the big player kings of in the mobile space). Switching isn't that easy, theres a lot of considerations and wins and losses you have to account for. For example, I wanted the increased privacy, I didn't want to lose type-c or the headphone jack. I might have eventually concided one thing or the other, but that takes time to decide. As for the imessage issue, I don't think its as bad as suicide, but I too was absolutely shocked about how serious that was. I always knew about it as a joke but I thought it was just that. Even stranger, I've spoke to people with this attitude, and none of them were aware of the advantages (which there certainly are) of an imessage only chat. Its purely about the bubbles and their colour. Absolutely mad
- simion314 5y ago>Whenever I see people whining about Apple I always think: just buy a fucking Android. B It is not free to switch. I am not on Apple phones but I own a PlayStation, if/when Sony screws me over I can't move my swap my fingers and my PS4 transforms into an XBOX and my games are transferred. To switch over you need to sell your old device, buy a new one, then buy again most of the applications/games. If you have some cloud integration you will probably have to sort that out too, cancel subscriptions, move/backup your data etc. On a different topic I think that if I pay the full price on a console then I own it and I should have the right to unlock it, they can ban me from multiplayer games if they can't trust the OS but I should have an unlock code.
- OldHand2018 5y agoThe judge ruled that it is ok for Apple to set and enforce their App Store guidelines. Remember that. Apple nuked Epic for running an unauthorized payment processing flow. And it was ok. Apple is now forced to allow other payment processors into their ecosystem. But there is nothing in that ruling that says Apple can't make guidelines on payment processors and that Apple can't enforce them. You had better believe that Apple is going to make a bunch of "consumer friendly" rules about transparency, data privacy, refunds, subscription cancellations, etc. And they are going to enforce them with no mercy, because the judge said that it is legal. Also, don't be surprised if the "Free with in-app purchase" apps now have to pay Apple for bandwidth at whatever the prevailing AWS/Azure egress charges are. But that will be waived for using the Apple payment processor.
- syspec 5y agoApple is not forced to allow other payment systems. News outlets got that wrong in their initial reading.
- OldHand2018 5y agoThanks for the update - I did not realize that :)
- nickflood 5y agoYep, Apple exploits holes in everything. Remember when Europe tried to introduce one charging port standard? Apple got around it by selling the shittiest most flimsy and easily broken microUSB to Lightning adapter known to man. If Apple can give EU such a middle finger, you better believe the third-party payment link ruling will have every hole in it exploited to the fullest to preserve revenue and show app developers their place. And Epic will be sscrewedwith even more, including Unreal for Apple's platforms. But I feel like these IT monopolies won't hold for more than 30-50 years.
- kthejoker2 5y agoAs someone in an Apple device dominated family with none of my own, my complaints are simple: * there's no way to get itemized billing without an Apple device. * credit card charge descriptions are completely useless * no "hey your X subscription is about to renew" notifications, 100% a dark pattern * only one payment method allowed, even in a family account (also, whole family ecosystem is underbaked, but this is true for just about every major company ... a real potential moat) * just extremely poor support over all, linkrot in their community posts about billing, billing inquiries on a PC go to reportaproblem.apple.com and suppory ticket style interface .. I could go on, it definitely feels more like malice than incompetence - a form of cheery neglect.
- lolsal 5y ago> * no "hey your X subscription is about to renew" notifications, 100% a dark pattern I'm not sure what you mean here, I absolutely get emails from Apple notifying me of subscription confirmations, renewal confirmations and expiration/cancelation confirmations.