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> Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. > What next? What is there to prevent China from try

by hker 5y ago

> Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. > What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? > The only way the regime can be changed is from the inside. Worth noting that the Chinese Army “may not be willing to fight” (‘pay the bill’ for the aggressive stance of the Foreign Ministry). [1] If the Chinese Army did not score decisive victories early on, they may be the one to give up, pushing back pressure from the top, instead of trying again and again. [1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/p0nqla/chinese_pla_unwilling_to_pay_the_bill_for_foreign/ https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/p0nqla/chinese...

PakG1 5y ago
War is tough and horrible. Any person can see that. There are many complex reasons why the larger Afghan army could not stand up to the Taliban, and while the situation is not comparable at all to the Chinese military, my point is that around the world, there are military units that aren't prepared or willing to fight the wars that their politicians wage. I do wager that China's PLA would win a war that involves Taiwan, just due to sheer numbers and resources, but that the experience would be so bitter that the PLA would lose morale in various respects. This is partly because they don't actually have real war experience in the modern era. Even armies with real war experience can get bitter. Armies without real war experience that suddenly get thrown into the fire, I'd wager that they would get even more bitter. PTSD and suicides would only be par for the course, the real issue would be inexperienced soldiers starting to question "what are we really doing and why am I killing people, do I really believe in what I'm doing?" I wager it would create cracks in what is currently a fairly unified country in China.
- belter 5y ago
  You are seeing too much from a modern occidental perspective although I dont know where you are from. No PTSD in the divisions that were driving over their own citizens in this event: https://imgur.com/bGP9oKf https://imgur.com/bGP9oKf Also no hesitation, dissent of any kind is known, from the internal departments implementing it in Hong Kong, Tibet, or Xinjiang.
blagie 5y ago
I predict: 1) China won't attack Taiwan until it can be assured a swift victory. 2) China will reach that state within our lifetimes. WWII was won, in part, by US manufacturing prowess. China has that advantage. It's military is currently behind in equipment, but if it chose to, it could build a blue water navy or whatever else it wants in record time. It also has the political ability to engage in major projects like these (see respective COVID19 responses). I suspect Chinese military leadership is far more competent than US or EU. The cream of the crop in the West doesn't go into the military (see Afghanistan for an good example of how US armed forces are managed). I also think we will see major disruptions in military from autonomous and semi-autonomous machines which will really reduce the US lead. DJI is headquartered in China, as are many of the other players here. If heave machines like carriers are obsoleted, the US advantage might turn into an expensive liability. The Chinese military also has more manpower.
- dTal 5y ago
  Carriers are already obsolete in a superpower war. Both sides possess weapons that can destroy them utterly from a great distance, and their location cannot be kept secret. Carriers won't last a day.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    China's hypersonic missiles have shorter range than an F35 launched from a carrier with midair refuel drone. The only issue is that we'd want our carriers closer in practice. Close to the action means faster response times. If we are willing to destroy Chinese satellites, then China's kill chain becomes much harder. I'm not convinced that a drone or spyplane can reliably penetrate the defensive line of destroyers + cruisers + E2 Hawkeyes. And satellites aren't even that reliable either, it may be possible to hide a carrier between satellite flyovers in practice.
    - blagie 5y ago
      A drone could not penetrate a defensive line of destroyers, cruisers, and E2 Hawkeyes. However, a destroyer costs $870 million. I can build a drone for around $870 which has decent range, and sufficient firepower to do real damage if attacking with sufficient precision (e.g. placing a small explosive charge directly within a barrel). That means I can launch a million drones for the cost of one destroyer. I'm pretty sure that a line of destroyers, cruisers, and E2 Hawkeyes wouldn't be able to destroy a fleet of a million drones. If they could, the cost of destroying each drone would likely be greater than the cost of the drone.

by hker 5y ago

PakG1 5y ago

War is tough and horrible. Any person can see that. There are many complex reasons why the larger Afghan army could not stand up to the Taliban, and while the situation is not comparable at all to the Chinese military, my point is that around the world, there are military units that aren't prepared or willing to fight the wars that their politicians wage. I do wager that China's PLA would win a war that involves Taiwan, just due to sheer numbers and resources, but that the experience would be so bitter that the PLA would lose morale in various respects. This is partly because they don't actually have real war experience in the modern era. Even armies with real war experience can get bitter. Armies without real war experience that suddenly get thrown into the fire, I'd wager that they would get even more bitter. PTSD and suicides would only be par for the course, the real issue would be inexperienced soldiers starting to question "what are we really doing and why am I killing people, do I really believe in what I'm doing?" I wager it would create cracks in what is currently a fairly unified country in China.

belter 5y ago
You are seeing too much from a modern occidental perspective although I dont know where you are from. No PTSD in the divisions that were driving over their own citizens in this event: https://imgur.com/bGP9oKf https://imgur.com/bGP9oKf Also no hesitation, dissent of any kind is known, from the internal departments implementing it in Hong Kong, Tibet, or Xinjiang.

blagie 5y ago

I predict: 1) China won't attack Taiwan until it can be assured a swift victory. 2) China will reach that state within our lifetimes. WWII was won, in part, by US manufacturing prowess. China has that advantage. It's military is currently behind in equipment, but if it chose to, it could build a blue water navy or whatever else it wants in record time. It also has the political ability to engage in major projects like these (see respective COVID19 responses). I suspect Chinese military leadership is far more competent than US or EU. The cream of the crop in the West doesn't go into the military (see Afghanistan for an good example of how US armed forces are managed). I also think we will see major disruptions in military from autonomous and semi-autonomous machines which will really reduce the US lead. DJI is headquartered in China, as are many of the other players here. If heave machines like carriers are obsoleted, the US advantage might turn into an expensive liability. The Chinese military also has more manpower.

dTal 5y ago
Carriers are already obsolete in a superpower war. Both sides possess weapons that can destroy them utterly from a great distance, and their location cannot be kept secret. Carriers won't last a day.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  China's hypersonic missiles have shorter range than an F35 launched from a carrier with midair refuel drone. The only issue is that we'd want our carriers closer in practice. Close to the action means faster response times. If we are willing to destroy Chinese satellites, then China's kill chain becomes much harder. I'm not convinced that a drone or spyplane can reliably penetrate the defensive line of destroyers + cruisers + E2 Hawkeyes. And satellites aren't even that reliable either, it may be possible to hide a carrier between satellite flyovers in practice.
  - blagie 5y ago
    A drone could not penetrate a defensive line of destroyers, cruisers, and E2 Hawkeyes. However, a destroyer costs $870 million. I can build a drone for around $870 which has decent range, and sufficient firepower to do real damage if attacking with sufficient precision (e.g. placing a small explosive charge directly within a barrel). That means I can launch a million drones for the cost of one destroyer. I'm pretty sure that a line of destroyers, cruisers, and E2 Hawkeyes wouldn't be able to destroy a fleet of a million drones. If they could, the cost of destroying each drone would likely be greater than the cost of the drone.