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Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight

Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? Will the US be prepared to ward off attacks after attacks after attacks? This is unlikely to happen. With this, lets again assume that China eventually successfully takes Taiwan. What next? They would have taken over an island with a large number of people who resents their rule. There will be a persistent resistance group as long as Beijing continues her ways and Beijing is aware of this and is trying to shape the education of the younger generations so that the resentment does not cross generations. Even if all these were to take place and all hope seems to be lost. There is a glimmer of hope. A totalitarian state has one major fault. There is no effective feedback mechanism and to assume that this one man can make the right call, the right decision all the time is a stretch. At some point, be it internal infighting, or a policy misstep creating intense misery amongst the people, there will be discontent and if the history of China is any indication, the discontent can trigger uprisings and eventually a change of regime. The only way the regime can be changed is from the inside.

rackjack 5y ago
> Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? Will the US be prepared to ward off attacks after attacks after attacks? This is unlikely to happen. America did this in Korea and it split the country in half. > With this, lets again assume that China eventually successfully takes Taiwan. What next? They would have taken over an island with a large number of people who resents their rule. There will be a persistent resistance group as long as Beijing continues her ways and Beijing is aware of this and is trying to shape the education of the younger generations so that the resentment does not cross generations. Also, brainwashing via complete control of the media, disappearing dissidents... They're doing it to the Falun Gong and the Muslims and others and they'll have no problem doing it to more. > Even if all these were to take place and all hope seems to be lost. There is a glimmer of hope. A totalitarian state has one major fault. There is no effective feedback mechanism and to assume that this one man can make the right call, the right decision all the time is a stretch. At some point, be it internal infighting, or a policy misstep creating intense misery amongst the people, there will be discontent and if the history of China is any indication, the discontent can trigger uprisings and eventually a change of regime. Also possible for there to be enough bureaucratic momentum that those within it have enough skin in the game to want to install a new head. But once China's growth starts to slow down I wouldn't be surprised at the CCP losing the Mandate of Heaven and the Ouroboros eating its tail again.
- klodolph 5y ago
  > America did this in Korea and it split the country in half. That is not even close to what happened. Korea was divided at the end of WWII into Soviet and US occupation zones after the Japanese surrender. Prior to that, it had been occupied by Japan.
- JackeJR 5y ago
  I agree that once the growth slows China will start to see cracks in its society. This, I submit, is the reason why Beijing is doubling down on the nationalist path. Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments. The social compact I believe that exists in China is that the people put up with the curbs either out of ignorance of the lacks of curbs or because of the promise of a better life which comes along with increased job wages as long as they toe the party line. The moment the bargain is not held up for the increased wages, the compact starts to get eroded. Turmoil in China if it happens will have a widespread and largely unknown consequences. Unknown because too many pieces are intricately linked to the stable functioning of China. For one, I hope to be able to witness this one day.
  - justicezyx 5y ago
    > Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments. Well, no, this is what US is doing, paint China as the source of all evil. Yourself is the product of that ploy. Think about Afghanistan, after so many years of wasted money life and time, one still think war is the answer. How effective the propaganda has been...
hker 5y ago
> Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. > What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? > The only way the regime can be changed is from the inside. Worth noting that the Chinese Army “may not be willing to fight” (‘pay the bill’ for the aggressive stance of the Foreign Ministry). [1] If the Chinese Army did not score decisive victories early on, they may be the one to give up, pushing back pressure from the top, instead of trying again and again. [1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/p0nqla/chinese_pla_unwilling_to_pay_the_bill_for_foreign/ https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/p0nqla/chinese...
- PakG1 5y ago
  War is tough and horrible. Any person can see that. There are many complex reasons why the larger Afghan army could not stand up to the Taliban, and while the situation is not comparable at all to the Chinese military, my point is that around the world, there are military units that aren't prepared or willing to fight the wars that their politicians wage. I do wager that China's PLA would win a war that involves Taiwan, just due to sheer numbers and resources, but that the experience would be so bitter that the PLA would lose morale in various respects. This is partly because they don't actually have real war experience in the modern era. Even armies with real war experience can get bitter. Armies without real war experience that suddenly get thrown into the fire, I'd wager that they would get even more bitter. PTSD and suicides would only be par for the course, the real issue would be inexperienced soldiers starting to question "what are we really doing and why am I killing people, do I really believe in what I'm doing?" I wager it would create cracks in what is currently a fairly unified country in China.
  - belter 5y ago
    You are seeing too much from a modern occidental perspective although I dont know where you are from. No PTSD in the divisions that were driving over their own citizens in this event: https://imgur.com/bGP9oKf https://imgur.com/bGP9oKf Also no hesitation, dissent of any kind is known, from the internal departments implementing it in Hong Kong, Tibet, or Xinjiang.
tasogare 5y ago
The local big player is Japan. It would be hard to intervene because of its current constitution but I don't see them letting PRC push its border so close. Moreover Okinawa was historically a vassal state of both Chinese empires and Japan, so it's possible China greed could extend there as well.
ukoki 5y ago
There will be political unrest as soon as the populace realise that the easy victory they were promised is not materialising and in fact tens of thousands of sons -- only-children who represent the future, pride and prosperity of their parents -- will not be returning home.
belter 5y ago
From a tactical point a view it looks a minor issue, except of course for the people of Taiwan. I cannot imagine what somebody in Taiwan, born and raised in a democracy, might be thinking when looking at what is happening in Hong Kong From the Strategic point of view, you have to look at a map to see what that would mean. China would take over Taiwan, and immediately expand its sea island building around its borders. Cut off the Philippines and Japan across the South China Sea. From Taiwan a fighter jet can be over Japan in 10 min. Australia with its rich mineral resources and empty spaces would be next... That the US, Australia, Japan together not make it clear to China invading Taiwan would mean a price not worth paying, will prove to be the Strategic blunder of this Century.
- greyhair 5y ago
  Are you in the diplomatic corps? Are you certain that US, Australia, and Japan are not communicating to China? Not all diplomatic exchanges are made public. For example, it is clear that the US is currently talking with the Taliban leadership. What are they saying? We have no idea, but it is taking place. I suspect the same is true for the above.
- nmfisher 5y ago
  I don't know where this absurd idea came from that "China invading Taiwan" means "Australia/Japan would be next!". As far as the PRC is concerned, Taiwan is a part of China. They wouldn't be invading another nations, they would simply be reclaiming sovereignty over a renegade province. That is something entirely different from invading a Western ally. One thing has absolutely no bearing on the other.
  - belter 5y ago
    Well historically Taiwan could argue China is the renegade province. See other comments in this thread for the context. I think you are missing the main point. Despite an arbitration court ruling against it, China decided all of the China Sea is theirs: https://im-media.voltron.voanews.com/Drupal/01live-166/styles/sourced/s3/2019-10/South%20China%20Sea_highlight.jpg?itok=k8UIg399 https://im-media.voltron.voanews.com/Drupal/01live-166/style... "The South China Sea Arbitration (The Republic of Philippines v. The People's Republic of China)" https://pca-cpa.org/en/cases/7/ https://pca-cpa.org/en/cases/7/ Started making artificial islands in the middle of nowhere, and now says all foreign vessels need to report in their ‘territorial waters’. "China to require foreign vessels to report in ‘territorial waters’" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28395358 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28395358 Have a look at a map, and see the distance from Yonaguni ( Japan ) to Taiwan and the distance Yonaguni to mainland Japan. You think China will do what they are doing in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, South China Sea and suddenly...Come to their senses and stop, specially if unchallenged for previous actions? If they do this in the other side of the world: "Hundreds of fishing vessels vanishing along Argentina’s waters" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27412691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27412691 What will they do at their door?
Rd6n6 5y ago
Huge thread about a war between the USA and China without serious mention of nuclear weapons and nuclear winter

rackjack 5y ago

> Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? Will the US be prepared to ward off attacks after attacks after attacks? This is unlikely to happen. America did this in Korea and it split the country in half. > With this, lets again assume that China eventually successfully takes Taiwan. What next? They would have taken over an island with a large number of people who resents their rule. There will be a persistent resistance group as long as Beijing continues her ways and Beijing is aware of this and is trying to shape the education of the younger generations so that the resentment does not cross generations. Also, brainwashing via complete control of the media, disappearing dissidents... They're doing it to the Falun Gong and the Muslims and others and they'll have no problem doing it to more. > Even if all these were to take place and all hope seems to be lost. There is a glimmer of hope. A totalitarian state has one major fault. There is no effective feedback mechanism and to assume that this one man can make the right call, the right decision all the time is a stretch. At some point, be it internal infighting, or a policy misstep creating intense misery amongst the people, there will be discontent and if the history of China is any indication, the discontent can trigger uprisings and eventually a change of regime. Also possible for there to be enough bureaucratic momentum that those within it have enough skin in the game to want to install a new head. But once China's growth starts to slow down I wouldn't be surprised at the CCP losing the Mandate of Heaven and the Ouroboros eating its tail again.

klodolph 5y ago
> America did this in Korea and it split the country in half. That is not even close to what happened. Korea was divided at the end of WWII into Soviet and US occupation zones after the Japanese surrender. Prior to that, it had been occupied by Japan.
JackeJR 5y ago
I agree that once the growth slows China will start to see cracks in its society. This, I submit, is the reason why Beijing is doubling down on the nationalist path. Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments. The social compact I believe that exists in China is that the people put up with the curbs either out of ignorance of the lacks of curbs or because of the promise of a better life which comes along with increased job wages as long as they toe the party line. The moment the bargain is not held up for the increased wages, the compact starts to get eroded. Turmoil in China if it happens will have a widespread and largely unknown consequences. Unknown because too many pieces are intricately linked to the stable functioning of China. For one, I hope to be able to witness this one day.
- justicezyx 5y ago
  > Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments. Well, no, this is what US is doing, paint China as the source of all evil. Yourself is the product of that ploy. Think about Afghanistan, after so many years of wasted money life and time, one still think war is the answer. How effective the propaganda has been...

hker 5y ago

> Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. > What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? > The only way the regime can be changed is from the inside. Worth noting that the Chinese Army “may not be willing to fight” (‘pay the bill’ for the aggressive stance of the Foreign Ministry). [1] If the Chinese Army did not score decisive victories early on, they may be the one to give up, pushing back pressure from the top, instead of trying again and again. [1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/p0nqla/chinese_pla_unwilling_to_pay_the_bill_for_foreign/ https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/p0nqla/chinese...

PakG1 5y ago
War is tough and horrible. Any person can see that. There are many complex reasons why the larger Afghan army could not stand up to the Taliban, and while the situation is not comparable at all to the Chinese military, my point is that around the world, there are military units that aren't prepared or willing to fight the wars that their politicians wage. I do wager that China's PLA would win a war that involves Taiwan, just due to sheer numbers and resources, but that the experience would be so bitter that the PLA would lose morale in various respects. This is partly because they don't actually have real war experience in the modern era. Even armies with real war experience can get bitter. Armies without real war experience that suddenly get thrown into the fire, I'd wager that they would get even more bitter. PTSD and suicides would only be par for the course, the real issue would be inexperienced soldiers starting to question "what are we really doing and why am I killing people, do I really believe in what I'm doing?" I wager it would create cracks in what is currently a fairly unified country in China.
- belter 5y ago
  You are seeing too much from a modern occidental perspective although I dont know where you are from. No PTSD in the divisions that were driving over their own citizens in this event: https://imgur.com/bGP9oKf https://imgur.com/bGP9oKf Also no hesitation, dissent of any kind is known, from the internal departments implementing it in Hong Kong, Tibet, or Xinjiang.

tasogare 5y ago

The local big player is Japan. It would be hard to intervene because of its current constitution but I don't see them letting PRC push its border so close. Moreover Okinawa was historically a vassal state of both Chinese empires and Japan, so it's possible China greed could extend there as well.

ukoki 5y ago

There will be political unrest as soon as the populace realise that the easy victory they were promised is not materialising and in fact tens of thousands of sons -- only-children who represent the future, pride and prosperity of their parents -- will not be returning home.

belter 5y ago

From a tactical point a view it looks a minor issue, except of course for the people of Taiwan. I cannot imagine what somebody in Taiwan, born and raised in a democracy, might be thinking when looking at what is happening in Hong Kong From the Strategic point of view, you have to look at a map to see what that would mean. China would take over Taiwan, and immediately expand its sea island building around its borders. Cut off the Philippines and Japan across the South China Sea. From Taiwan a fighter jet can be over Japan in 10 min. Australia with its rich mineral resources and empty spaces would be next... That the US, Australia, Japan together not make it clear to China invading Taiwan would mean a price not worth paying, will prove to be the Strategic blunder of this Century.

greyhair 5y ago
Are you in the diplomatic corps? Are you certain that US, Australia, and Japan are not communicating to China? Not all diplomatic exchanges are made public. For example, it is clear that the US is currently talking with the Taliban leadership. What are they saying? We have no idea, but it is taking place. I suspect the same is true for the above.
nmfisher 5y ago
I don't know where this absurd idea came from that "China invading Taiwan" means "Australia/Japan would be next!". As far as the PRC is concerned, Taiwan is a part of China. They wouldn't be invading another nations, they would simply be reclaiming sovereignty over a renegade province. That is something entirely different from invading a Western ally. One thing has absolutely no bearing on the other.
- belter 5y ago
  Well historically Taiwan could argue China is the renegade province. See other comments in this thread for the context. I think you are missing the main point. Despite an arbitration court ruling against it, China decided all of the China Sea is theirs: https://im-media.voltron.voanews.com/Drupal/01live-166/styles/sourced/s3/2019-10/South%20China%20Sea_highlight.jpg?itok=k8UIg399 https://im-media.voltron.voanews.com/Drupal/01live-166/style... "The South China Sea Arbitration (The Republic of Philippines v. The People's Republic of China)" https://pca-cpa.org/en/cases/7/ https://pca-cpa.org/en/cases/7/ Started making artificial islands in the middle of nowhere, and now says all foreign vessels need to report in their ‘territorial waters’. "China to require foreign vessels to report in ‘territorial waters’" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28395358 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28395358 Have a look at a map, and see the distance from Yonaguni ( Japan ) to Taiwan and the distance Yonaguni to mainland Japan. You think China will do what they are doing in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, South China Sea and suddenly...Come to their senses and stop, specially if unchallenged for previous actions? If they do this in the other side of the world: "Hundreds of fishing vessels vanishing along Argentina’s waters" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27412691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27412691 What will they do at their door?

Rd6n6 5y ago

Huge thread about a war between the USA and China without serious mention of nuclear weapons and nuclear winter