6 ms·

A supply chain catastrophe is brewing in the US

46 points by hncurious 5y ago

yuppie_scum 5y ago
Brewing? It’s been brewed.
- steve_adams_86 5y ago
  I believe we’re at the beginning of the pour
1MachineElf 5y ago
Interesting story. A week ago, driving my car, I was exiting I-95 for a rest stop when the car in front of me and the truck in front of it started slowing down, then stop fully. We were stopped for a minute for no reason, so I relied on my trusty AWD to maneuver off the road and around the stopped truck. As I pulled up to it, I lowered my window, and asked the driver if he was OK. Driver said to me that his air system got damaged on the road, and he couldn't drive for more than a few hundred feet before stopping again. I'm not exactly sure how all of that works, but there was nothing I could do, so I moved on. After reading this, I wonder if that driver and his employer are facing the same challenge.
- letitbeirie 5y ago
  > I'm not exactly sure how all of that works Brakes on heavy vehicles like semis are set up so that a heavy spring closes the brakes with maximum force unless the air system is pressurized to prevent that from happening. That way if the system fails, the driver finds out about it like this guy did (i.e. the truck failing to move) rather than his brakes failing and causing a crash.
  - babelfish 5y ago
    Interesting - sounds like a Poka-yoke https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poka-yoke?wprov=sfti1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poka-yoke?wprov=sfti1
    - loonster 5y ago
      No. It is a fail safe, as opposed to a fail deadly. Poka-yokes are to prevent people from installing something wrong.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
rcpt 5y ago
Okay so what stock to buy based on this information? Uranium?
- obulpathi 5y ago
  Stocks related to 3D Printing?
  - splitstud 5y ago
    Beers. Two beers for these nongender gentlemen.
  - eurasiantiger 5y ago
    Where do you think those machines, their parts and materials come from?
deltree7 5y ago
Wow, a sub-reddit dedicated to collapse predicting a catastrophe? The World is innovating at a rapid pace. The supply chain problem is piddly and will be solved very soon. Think about it, The entire world shut down for 15 months with lockdowns and global panic. Yet, the GDP is almost back at 2020 levels. If you sit back and think about it, it is mind-boggling and an extra ordinary achievement of the Global Supply Chain. It is a 10 Billion product and a $80 T economy. It is incredibly stupid to use anecdotal examples. The economy is very resilient. People who have been predicting collapse end up making poor financial decisions
- splitstud 5y ago
  And those of us having to make difficult supply decisions don't appreciate your ignorant handwaving.
  - deltree7 5y ago
    OMG poor you! The entire global workforce switched to working from home with 2 weeks notice. The entire world switched to online education with 2 weeks notice. There are no food shortages. Vaccines were manufactured and delivered at an unseen rate. But wah wah poor me. Get a grip.
    - chimpansteve 5y ago
      A primarily affluent small minority of the global workforce switched to working from home. Literally everything your lifestyle depends upon requires actual people doing physical labour. An overwhelming majority of children have had basically no education at all for close to eighteen months.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- Lammy 5y ago
  > The economy is very resilient. Sure. The problem is a lot of people will get hurt along the way. People all across the board are stretched thinner than ever, people working multiple jobs, dual-income households that still can't afford a home of their own. Who gives a shit about GDP?
spookthesunset 5y ago
Gee who could have predicted that shutting down the entire industrialized world for 1.5 years could result in some pretty nasty stuff happening. Remember, all of this second and third order effects have negative health consequences for everybody involved. Odds are incredibly good we will shorten the lives of many more people from the lockdowns and our panic fueled reaction than covid ever did. Our reaction to covid will go down in history as the single worst public health / public policy fuck-up ever. We drove the train right off the track in a fit of media and politically fueled hysteria. Any dissent, criticism or objections were ridiculed, ostracized, bullied, shamed and censored. It's been nothing but the worst of human behaviour on display since March of 2020. We will be paying the price for a very long time.
- postpawl 5y ago
  “shutting down the entire industrialized world for 1.5 years” is a bit of an exaggeration?
- consumer451 5y ago
  Do you have any stats or research to back up your analysis or is this just a gut feeling? If we are doing gut feelings, I have to say I also saw the worst of humanity. I saw a political party politicize masks. This put my family in danger for political gain and I don’t see myself forgetting that anytime soon. As to specifics, what would you have done differently?
  - warlog 5y ago
    You mean the US surgeon general Jerome Adams announcing by twitter that masks weren't effective, and later deleting [0]? 0.https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/face-masks-coronavirus-surgeon-general-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/face-masks-coronavirus...
    - consumer451 5y ago
      Here is my take on masks. Of course they work, to varying degrees. I don’t need a government official to tell me that. My take on official gov statements is that they cannot always be taken a face value. It would be naive to do so, especially in a time of crisis. If I recall correctly, this was at a time when masks were in very short supply and I took this as misinformation to keep medical providers from having to re-use masks. However, there were all kinds of missteps during the pandemic and keeping the public “calm” seemed to be a major priority for the previous administration.[0] This could have been part of that. But I readily admit that this is all speculation. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/white-house-abandoned-plan-to-deliver-650-million-face-masks-across-us-report-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/white-house-abandoned-plan-t...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
kirykl 5y ago
Trucking is a very thin margin business. Companies and independents are nearly always in a state of existential crisis for any number of reasons. Buying a new truck in place of a part? Is the part the engine ?
- WarOnPrivacy 5y ago
  from the thread: It was the VB clamp that connects the two pieces of the bellows pipe (which runs from the turbo to the DPF). .. a 7-inch round steel pipe joint that has to stand up against thousands of pounds of exhaust/Jake break pressure. Just a simple clamp/gasket that should be in stock at every Freightliner shop in the US. Except it isn't available anywhere in the country.
hazza_n_dazza 5y ago
on a reddit forum called /collape who would have guessed? would def want some more information
throwawaymanbot 5y ago
As has been reported a lot recently, Hedge funds and wall st are involved in a lot of these things for their own profit. What they do is not illegal afaik, but engineered "shortages" or "supply chain issues" increase profit for them and why would they want to not take even more?

46 points by hncurious 5y ago

yuppie_scum 5y ago

Brewing? It’s been brewed.

steve_adams_86 5y ago
I believe we’re at the beginning of the pour

1MachineElf 5y ago

Interesting story. A week ago, driving my car, I was exiting I-95 for a rest stop when the car in front of me and the truck in front of it started slowing down, then stop fully. We were stopped for a minute for no reason, so I relied on my trusty AWD to maneuver off the road and around the stopped truck. As I pulled up to it, I lowered my window, and asked the driver if he was OK. Driver said to me that his air system got damaged on the road, and he couldn't drive for more than a few hundred feet before stopping again. I'm not exactly sure how all of that works, but there was nothing I could do, so I moved on. After reading this, I wonder if that driver and his employer are facing the same challenge.

letitbeirie 5y ago
> I'm not exactly sure how all of that works Brakes on heavy vehicles like semis are set up so that a heavy spring closes the brakes with maximum force unless the air system is pressurized to prevent that from happening. That way if the system fails, the driver finds out about it like this guy did (i.e. the truck failing to move) rather than his brakes failing and causing a crash.
- babelfish 5y ago
  Interesting - sounds like a Poka-yoke https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poka-yoke?wprov=sfti1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poka-yoke?wprov=sfti1
  - loonster 5y ago
    No. It is a fail safe, as opposed to a fail deadly. Poka-yokes are to prevent people from installing something wrong.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

rcpt 5y ago

Okay so what stock to buy based on this information? Uranium?

obulpathi 5y ago
Stocks related to 3D Printing?
- splitstud 5y ago
  Beers. Two beers for these nongender gentlemen.
- eurasiantiger 5y ago
  Where do you think those machines, their parts and materials come from?

deltree7 5y ago

Wow, a sub-reddit dedicated to collapse predicting a catastrophe? The World is innovating at a rapid pace. The supply chain problem is piddly and will be solved very soon. Think about it, The entire world shut down for 15 months with lockdowns and global panic. Yet, the GDP is almost back at 2020 levels. If you sit back and think about it, it is mind-boggling and an extra ordinary achievement of the Global Supply Chain. It is a 10 Billion product and a $80 T economy. It is incredibly stupid to use anecdotal examples. The economy is very resilient. People who have been predicting collapse end up making poor financial decisions

splitstud 5y ago
And those of us having to make difficult supply decisions don't appreciate your ignorant handwaving.
- deltree7 5y ago
  OMG poor you! The entire global workforce switched to working from home with 2 weeks notice. The entire world switched to online education with 2 weeks notice. There are no food shortages. Vaccines were manufactured and delivered at an unseen rate. But wah wah poor me. Get a grip.
  - chimpansteve 5y ago
    A primarily affluent small minority of the global workforce switched to working from home. Literally everything your lifestyle depends upon requires actual people doing physical labour. An overwhelming majority of children have had basically no education at all for close to eighteen months.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
Lammy 5y ago
> The economy is very resilient. Sure. The problem is a lot of people will get hurt along the way. People all across the board are stretched thinner than ever, people working multiple jobs, dual-income households that still can't afford a home of their own. Who gives a shit about GDP?

spookthesunset 5y ago

Gee who could have predicted that shutting down the entire industrialized world for 1.5 years could result in some pretty nasty stuff happening. Remember, all of this second and third order effects have negative health consequences for everybody involved. Odds are incredibly good we will shorten the lives of many more people from the lockdowns and our panic fueled reaction than covid ever did. Our reaction to covid will go down in history as the single worst public health / public policy fuck-up ever. We drove the train right off the track in a fit of media and politically fueled hysteria. Any dissent, criticism or objections were ridiculed, ostracized, bullied, shamed and censored. It's been nothing but the worst of human behaviour on display since March of 2020. We will be paying the price for a very long time.

postpawl 5y ago
“shutting down the entire industrialized world for 1.5 years” is a bit of an exaggeration?
consumer451 5y ago
Do you have any stats or research to back up your analysis or is this just a gut feeling? If we are doing gut feelings, I have to say I also saw the worst of humanity. I saw a political party politicize masks. This put my family in danger for political gain and I don’t see myself forgetting that anytime soon. As to specifics, what would you have done differently?
- warlog 5y ago
  You mean the US surgeon general Jerome Adams announcing by twitter that masks weren't effective, and later deleting [0]? 0.https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/face-masks-coronavirus-surgeon-general-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/face-masks-coronavirus...
  - consumer451 5y ago
    Here is my take on masks. Of course they work, to varying degrees. I don’t need a government official to tell me that. My take on official gov statements is that they cannot always be taken a face value. It would be naive to do so, especially in a time of crisis. If I recall correctly, this was at a time when masks were in very short supply and I took this as misinformation to keep medical providers from having to re-use masks. However, there were all kinds of missteps during the pandemic and keeping the public “calm” seemed to be a major priority for the previous administration.[0] This could have been part of that. But I readily admit that this is all speculation. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/white-house-abandoned-plan-to-deliver-650-million-face-masks-across-us-report-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/white-house-abandoned-plan-t...

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

kirykl 5y ago

Trucking is a very thin margin business. Companies and independents are nearly always in a state of existential crisis for any number of reasons. Buying a new truck in place of a part? Is the part the engine ?

WarOnPrivacy 5y ago
from the thread: It was the VB clamp that connects the two pieces of the bellows pipe (which runs from the turbo to the DPF). .. a 7-inch round steel pipe joint that has to stand up against thousands of pounds of exhaust/Jake break pressure. Just a simple clamp/gasket that should be in stock at every Freightliner shop in the US. Except it isn't available anywhere in the country.

hazza_n_dazza 5y ago

on a reddit forum called /collape who would have guessed? would def want some more information

throwawaymanbot 5y ago

As has been reported a lot recently, Hedge funds and wall st are involved in a lot of these things for their own profit. What they do is not illegal afaik, but engineered "shortages" or "supply chain issues" increase profit for them and why would they want to not take even more?