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I think “prevent” is too imprecise a term here. The vaccines don’t eliminate the risk of spreading the virus to others. They do materially reduce the risk of sp

I think “prevent” is too imprecise a term here. The vaccines don’t eliminate the risk of spreading the virus to others. They do materially reduce the risk of spreading the virus to others.

captainredbeard 5y ago
How much pro-social good is required to force me to take a medical treatment I do not consent to?
- tfehring 5y ago
  A lot - that’s why I strongly oppose government vaccine mandates except in contexts where the magnitude of that pro-social good is far above the baseline - e.g., for healthcare workers. Thankfully, the “or test” part distinguishes this from a vaccine mandate. We should have been testing most of the population since last March, and if anything we should have stronger testing requirements than this guidance dictates.
- White_Wolf 5y ago
  I don't think anyone should be forced to take any medicine against their will as long as they are not in a coma or incapacitated and unable to reason. I personally had the vaccine because I have very high blood pressure, have pretty high blood sugar (even though I'm fit/in shape) and am almost 40. It was MY CHOICE in the risk vs reward game of numbers it I did it only for myself with a good life insurance already in place that covers death/incapacity from medication too(covers COVID vaccines too). What if I would of ended up like that BBC presenter? Dead. For me it's down to my family and that is it. This will be a bit exagerated but (hopefully) shold get the point across: At the end of the day anyone else is disposable as long as my family is safe from harm. As long as the vaccine is not 100% safe nobody should be allowed to force anyone else to take it. Edit: One thing that puzzles me though - Why is nobody talking about those that are immune or already have the antibodies and don't need a vaccine? Why force them to have it if those vaccinated are safe?
  - md_ 5y ago
    > Edit: One thing that puzzles me though - Why is nobody talking about those that are immune or already have the antibodies and don't need a vaccine? Why force them to have it if those vaccinated are safe? The mRNA vaccines do appear to reduce risk (of infection and of symptoms) in recovered patients as well. (See e.g. https://theconversation.com/if-ive-already-had-covid-do-i-need-a-vaccine-and-how-does-the-immune-system-respond-an-expert-explains-164236 https://theconversation.com/if-ive-already-had-covid-do-i-ne...) That said, the German "geimpft, getestet, oder genesen" strategy ("vaccinated, tested, or recovered") is explicitly what you suggest. The tradeoff here, to me, is that: - If we do not mandate vaccination, people can preserve their individual autonomy and will, nonetheless, probably get infected sooner or later and thus have some immunity. (According to some research, greater than that of vaccinated people against the same strain, but perhaps reduced against other strains.) - However, that relies upon maintaining sufficient hospital capacity for the additional cases with severe symptoms. So as long as hospital capacity remains an issue, mandatory vaccinations make sense.
    - White_Wolf 5y ago
      From the heart: respect to Germany for that policy. I'm assuming you're in Germany/know someone in Germany when asking this and you might of heard something about it: -Is it true that Hungarians are using some sort of medication as treatment? I heard it from a guy at work(hungarian) and was stumped.
      - md_ 5y ago
        I'm not and I have not heard that. Maybe they're taking horse dewormer. ;)
- thehappypm 5y ago
  Non-zero. If COVID had a 100% death rate and was contagious like COVID we’d be vaccinating everyone against their will.
  - captainredbeard 5y ago
    Such efforts would likely grind to a halt after the first several waves of vaccination crew member killings. There are a lot of unhinged people out there and forced vaccination crosses a red line.
    - thehappypm 5y ago
      A 100% death rate would look a lot like Bird Box. Probably a society ender.
- betterunix2 5y ago
  How much was required for mandatory polio vaccination? MMR? Smallpox? Vaccine requirements have been commonplace for decades now, and society has greatly benefited from it.
walterbell 5y ago
They increase the risk of asymptomatic transmission, because vaccines suppress the symptoms of infection, which would otherwise signal the infected person to quarantine. The CDC says this can be addressed by regular testing of the vaccinated, https://archive.is/PW9SP https://archive.is/PW9SP > The agency now advises that vaccinated people be tested for the virus if they come into contact with someone with Covid-19, even if they have no symptoms... “Our updated guidance recommends vaccinated people get tested upon exposure regardless of symptoms,” Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the agency’s director, said in an email to The New York Times. “Testing is widely available.”
- tfehring 5y ago
  Do you have a source for the claim that a vaccinated person is more likely than an unvaccinated person to transmit the virus asymptomatically?
  - walterbell 5y ago
    That wasn't the claim. The claim was that an unvaccinated person can self-isolate when they observe symptoms. As the CDC said above, absence of symptoms is not a sufficient indicator for a vaccinated person. If a vaccinated person is tested regularly, they can self-isolate upon a positive test result, since they can't rely on symptoms as a signal.
    - MagnumOpus 5y ago
      > absence of symptoms is not a sufficient indicator for a vaccinated person Absence of symptoms is not a sufficient indicator for the unvaxed either, so your argument falls apart. Why isn't 90% reduction in ICU occupation and 70% reduction in chance of infection a sufficient argument for the public benefits? Just because it is not perfect, you'd rather let the country's hospitals overload and shut down?
    - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
      The problem with COVID-19 all along has been that it is transmissible before being symptomatic. That is why it spread like wildfire when SARS and MERS did not. Listened to a good interview on NPR some months ago with a leading coronavirus expert who went over this in detail, but unfortunately can't remember her name or find the interview right now. In any case, vaccines don't really change the equation here. Testing for temperature and symptoms with COVID have proven to be ineffective because asymptomatic transmission in the early stages is a thing with COVID-19 even without vaccination.
jansan 5y ago
If this were the case, shouldn't Israel have fewer cases now? No other country has more infections per million than Israel, with a vaccination rate much higher than the US.
- bluGill 5y ago
  Illinois has already higher vaccination rate than Israel. Israel has a lot of kids (and interesting politics )
- matwood 5y ago
  Israel's overall vaccination rate is actually not that high. They were first out the gate, but tapered. They have also found the recent spike in cases to be focused in areas with low vaccination rates [1]. With the delta variant every unvaccinated person will likely end up becoming infected at some point. These unvaccinated pockets are where the large spikes are coming from, especially for severe disease. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1420059122725183491.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1420059122725183491.html
  - jansan 5y ago
    Again, they recently had (or still have) the highest case per million rate in the world! Compare this to Palestine, with a vaccination rate of about 10% and roughly 1/40 of the cases per million. You could argue that Palestine is one big pocket of unvaccinated people. Why are the cases so much lower? And how would the situation in Israel be without vaccines? Worse than now or the same as in Palestine?
    - ckdarby 5y ago
      Different countries, different events, different cultures, etc. There is also the problem of having a sense of security when there is a large vaccinated population which causes the vaccinated population to resume a regular life. Those who are not vaccinated are now exposed to more people in general. Example, my wife and I prior to being fully vaccinated interacted with less than 10 people in the 1.5 years. We had everything delivered and had someone do our Costco shopping and drop it off at our doorstep. With us both fully vaccinated we go to Costco for our groceries and indirectly come in contact with probably 50 people in a single visit.

I think “prevent” is too imprecise a term here. The vaccines don’t eliminate the risk of spreading the virus to others. They do materially reduce the risk of spreading the virus to others.

captainredbeard 5y ago

How much pro-social good is required to force me to take a medical treatment I do not consent to?

tfehring 5y ago
A lot - that’s why I strongly oppose government vaccine mandates except in contexts where the magnitude of that pro-social good is far above the baseline - e.g., for healthcare workers. Thankfully, the “or test” part distinguishes this from a vaccine mandate. We should have been testing most of the population since last March, and if anything we should have stronger testing requirements than this guidance dictates.
White_Wolf 5y ago
I don't think anyone should be forced to take any medicine against their will as long as they are not in a coma or incapacitated and unable to reason. I personally had the vaccine because I have very high blood pressure, have pretty high blood sugar (even though I'm fit/in shape) and am almost 40. It was MY CHOICE in the risk vs reward game of numbers it I did it only for myself with a good life insurance already in place that covers death/incapacity from medication too(covers COVID vaccines too). What if I would of ended up like that BBC presenter? Dead. For me it's down to my family and that is it. This will be a bit exagerated but (hopefully) shold get the point across: At the end of the day anyone else is disposable as long as my family is safe from harm. As long as the vaccine is not 100% safe nobody should be allowed to force anyone else to take it. Edit: One thing that puzzles me though - Why is nobody talking about those that are immune or already have the antibodies and don't need a vaccine? Why force them to have it if those vaccinated are safe?
- md_ 5y ago
  > Edit: One thing that puzzles me though - Why is nobody talking about those that are immune or already have the antibodies and don't need a vaccine? Why force them to have it if those vaccinated are safe? The mRNA vaccines do appear to reduce risk (of infection and of symptoms) in recovered patients as well. (See e.g. https://theconversation.com/if-ive-already-had-covid-do-i-need-a-vaccine-and-how-does-the-immune-system-respond-an-expert-explains-164236 https://theconversation.com/if-ive-already-had-covid-do-i-ne...) That said, the German "geimpft, getestet, oder genesen" strategy ("vaccinated, tested, or recovered") is explicitly what you suggest. The tradeoff here, to me, is that: - If we do not mandate vaccination, people can preserve their individual autonomy and will, nonetheless, probably get infected sooner or later and thus have some immunity. (According to some research, greater than that of vaccinated people against the same strain, but perhaps reduced against other strains.) - However, that relies upon maintaining sufficient hospital capacity for the additional cases with severe symptoms. So as long as hospital capacity remains an issue, mandatory vaccinations make sense.
  - White_Wolf 5y ago
    From the heart: respect to Germany for that policy. I'm assuming you're in Germany/know someone in Germany when asking this and you might of heard something about it: -Is it true that Hungarians are using some sort of medication as treatment? I heard it from a guy at work(hungarian) and was stumped.
    - md_ 5y ago
      I'm not and I have not heard that. Maybe they're taking horse dewormer. ;)
thehappypm 5y ago
Non-zero. If COVID had a 100% death rate and was contagious like COVID we’d be vaccinating everyone against their will.
- captainredbeard 5y ago
  Such efforts would likely grind to a halt after the first several waves of vaccination crew member killings. There are a lot of unhinged people out there and forced vaccination crosses a red line.
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    A 100% death rate would look a lot like Bird Box. Probably a society ender.
betterunix2 5y ago
How much was required for mandatory polio vaccination? MMR? Smallpox? Vaccine requirements have been commonplace for decades now, and society has greatly benefited from it.

walterbell 5y ago

They increase the risk of asymptomatic transmission, because vaccines suppress the symptoms of infection, which would otherwise signal the infected person to quarantine. The CDC says this can be addressed by regular testing of the vaccinated, https://archive.is/PW9SP https://archive.is/PW9SP > The agency now advises that vaccinated people be tested for the virus if they come into contact with someone with Covid-19, even if they have no symptoms... “Our updated guidance recommends vaccinated people get tested upon exposure regardless of symptoms,” Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the agency’s director, said in an email to The New York Times. “Testing is widely available.”

tfehring 5y ago
Do you have a source for the claim that a vaccinated person is more likely than an unvaccinated person to transmit the virus asymptomatically?
- walterbell 5y ago
  That wasn't the claim. The claim was that an unvaccinated person can self-isolate when they observe symptoms. As the CDC said above, absence of symptoms is not a sufficient indicator for a vaccinated person. If a vaccinated person is tested regularly, they can self-isolate upon a positive test result, since they can't rely on symptoms as a signal.
  - MagnumOpus 5y ago
    > absence of symptoms is not a sufficient indicator for a vaccinated person Absence of symptoms is not a sufficient indicator for the unvaxed either, so your argument falls apart. Why isn't 90% reduction in ICU occupation and 70% reduction in chance of infection a sufficient argument for the public benefits? Just because it is not perfect, you'd rather let the country's hospitals overload and shut down?
  - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
    The problem with COVID-19 all along has been that it is transmissible before being symptomatic. That is why it spread like wildfire when SARS and MERS did not. Listened to a good interview on NPR some months ago with a leading coronavirus expert who went over this in detail, but unfortunately can't remember her name or find the interview right now. In any case, vaccines don't really change the equation here. Testing for temperature and symptoms with COVID have proven to be ineffective because asymptomatic transmission in the early stages is a thing with COVID-19 even without vaccination.

jansan 5y ago

If this were the case, shouldn't Israel have fewer cases now? No other country has more infections per million than Israel, with a vaccination rate much higher than the US.

bluGill 5y ago
Illinois has already higher vaccination rate than Israel. Israel has a lot of kids (and interesting politics )
matwood 5y ago
Israel's overall vaccination rate is actually not that high. They were first out the gate, but tapered. They have also found the recent spike in cases to be focused in areas with low vaccination rates [1]. With the delta variant every unvaccinated person will likely end up becoming infected at some point. These unvaccinated pockets are where the large spikes are coming from, especially for severe disease. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1420059122725183491.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1420059122725183491.html
- jansan 5y ago
  Again, they recently had (or still have) the highest case per million rate in the world! Compare this to Palestine, with a vaccination rate of about 10% and roughly 1/40 of the cases per million. You could argue that Palestine is one big pocket of unvaccinated people. Why are the cases so much lower? And how would the situation in Israel be without vaccines? Worse than now or the same as in Palestine?
  - ckdarby 5y ago
    Different countries, different events, different cultures, etc. There is also the problem of having a sense of security when there is a large vaccinated population which causes the vaccinated population to resume a regular life. Those who are not vaccinated are now exposed to more people in general. Example, my wife and I prior to being fully vaccinated interacted with less than 10 people in the 1.5 years. We had everything delivered and had someone do our Costco shopping and drop it off at our doorstep. With us both fully vaccinated we go to Costco for our groceries and indirectly come in contact with probably 50 people in a single visit.