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For things defined by exponential growth like viruses, you don't have to stop them 100%. All you have to do is get the growth factor below 1.0 and the virus wi

For things defined by exponential growth like viruses, you don't have to stop them 100%. All you have to do is get the growth factor below 1.0 and the virus will die out as it can't infect enough people to stay alive.

walterbell 5y ago
Why hasn't that happened already in countries with very high vaccine rates, like Israel?
- lalaland1125 5y ago
  Israel's vaccination rate isn't that high? They are only 60% vaccinated.
  - walterbell 5y ago
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628... > Israel was the first country on Earth to fully vaccinate a majority of its citizens against COVID-19. Now it has one of the world's highest daily infection rates — an average of nearly 7,500 confirmed cases a day, double what it was two weeks ago. Nearly one in every 150 people in Israel today has the virus. Not a great advertisement for non-sterilizing vaccines.
    - endless1234 5y ago
      Why ignore the GPs argument? Israel has vaccinated 61% of their population. Of course the 39% who aren't vaccinated will continue to spread it like before, even more so if restrictions are lifted.
      - over_the_raibow 5y ago
        >Of course the 39% who aren't vaccinated will continue to spread it like before Why do you lie, vaccinated people spread the virus just as much
      - jtc331 5y ago
        The 61% is misleading because it includes children ineligible for the vaccine. My undertow that they’ve vaccinated something like 80% of adults (one of the highest on the world).
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
        ImPostingOnHN 5y ago
        80% of adults is misleading because it excludes children who can still get the virus and spread it to others tbh the concept of herd immunity doesn't care about who the law says can get vaccinated
        angelzen 5y ago
        An unvaccinated child has less chance of severe covid compared to a vaccinated adult. Covid is different between child and adults, reasonable to hypothesize that transmission is also different. > Evidence from studies primarily done before vaccine approval for those 12 years of age and older suggests that staff-to-staff transmission is more common than transmission from students to staff, staff to student, or student to student. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#sars-cov-2 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-br...
        ImPostingOnHN 5y ago
        "less chance of severe covid compared to a vaccinated adult" is an attempt to move the goalposts to an irrelevant point if they're vaccinated, they count towards the numerator if they are a person, and thus have a nonzero chance of getting infected, and a nonzero chance of infecting others if infected, they count towards the denominator that's how you determine vaccination rate
      - makomk 5y ago
        You see the sibling comment to that one, about how the UK's "very high vaccination rates" means that we've been out of lockdown for a while, are returning to normal life, and have very few hospitalizations for Covid? Well, we've only vaccinated 65% of our population, barely more than Israel - and I think we have demographics which lean more towards age groups at higher risk from Covid than Israel as well. The headline government figures are higher, but they're for over-16s which are the only group eligible for vaccination here.
- halflife 5y ago
  I’m from Israel, we were in an excellent condition couple of months ago, but once the vaccination started to lose its potency we see a steep rise in infections and hospitalizations. Now that we are deep into the booster shot we see the numbers of infections and hospitalizations start to drop again.
nradov 5y ago
There is no scientific evidence that it will be possible to get the growth factor below 1.0. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
newbamboo 5y ago
I didn’t think there were people who still believe herd immunity is possible at this point. Maybe that’s not what you’re saying?

walterbell 5y ago

Why hasn't that happened already in countries with very high vaccine rates, like Israel?

lalaland1125 5y ago
Israel's vaccination rate isn't that high? They are only 60% vaccinated.
- walterbell 5y ago
  https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628... > Israel was the first country on Earth to fully vaccinate a majority of its citizens against COVID-19. Now it has one of the world's highest daily infection rates — an average of nearly 7,500 confirmed cases a day, double what it was two weeks ago. Nearly one in every 150 people in Israel today has the virus. Not a great advertisement for non-sterilizing vaccines.
  - endless1234 5y ago
    Why ignore the GPs argument? Israel has vaccinated 61% of their population. Of course the 39% who aren't vaccinated will continue to spread it like before, even more so if restrictions are lifted.
    - over_the_raibow 5y ago
      >Of course the 39% who aren't vaccinated will continue to spread it like before Why do you lie, vaccinated people spread the virus just as much
    - jtc331 5y ago
      The 61% is misleading because it includes children ineligible for the vaccine. My undertow that they’ve vaccinated something like 80% of adults (one of the highest on the world).
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - ImPostingOnHN 5y ago
        80% of adults is misleading because it excludes children who can still get the virus and spread it to others tbh the concept of herd immunity doesn't care about who the law says can get vaccinated
        angelzen 5y ago
        An unvaccinated child has less chance of severe covid compared to a vaccinated adult. Covid is different between child and adults, reasonable to hypothesize that transmission is also different. > Evidence from studies primarily done before vaccine approval for those 12 years of age and older suggests that staff-to-staff transmission is more common than transmission from students to staff, staff to student, or student to student. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#sars-cov-2 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-br...
        ImPostingOnHN 5y ago
        "less chance of severe covid compared to a vaccinated adult" is an attempt to move the goalposts to an irrelevant point if they're vaccinated, they count towards the numerator if they are a person, and thus have a nonzero chance of getting infected, and a nonzero chance of infecting others if infected, they count towards the denominator that's how you determine vaccination rate
    - makomk 5y ago
      You see the sibling comment to that one, about how the UK's "very high vaccination rates" means that we've been out of lockdown for a while, are returning to normal life, and have very few hospitalizations for Covid? Well, we've only vaccinated 65% of our population, barely more than Israel - and I think we have demographics which lean more towards age groups at higher risk from Covid than Israel as well. The headline government figures are higher, but they're for over-16s which are the only group eligible for vaccination here.
halflife 5y ago
I’m from Israel, we were in an excellent condition couple of months ago, but once the vaccination started to lose its potency we see a steep rise in infections and hospitalizations. Now that we are deep into the booster shot we see the numbers of infections and hospitalizations start to drop again.

nradov 5y ago

There is no scientific evidence that it will be possible to get the growth factor below 1.0. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

newbamboo 5y ago

I didn’t think there were people who still believe herd immunity is possible at this point. Maybe that’s not what you’re saying?