4 ms·

Reducing is still a society-wide public health benefit.

walterbell 5y ago
Reducing does not have the same scaling effect as stopping, e.g. society must continue to pay an ongoing price for mitigations. Stopping means society can move on after a one-time vaccine cost. There are intranasal (e.g. inhaler) vaccines under development, which may provide nasal/mucosal antibodies. Until those are available, recovery from natural infection will provide both nasal/mucosal and blood/serum antibodies. This path is available to both the vaccinated and unvaccinated.
- lalaland1125 5y ago
  For things defined by exponential growth like viruses, you don't have to stop them 100%. All you have to do is get the growth factor below 1.0 and the virus will die out as it can't infect enough people to stay alive.
  - walterbell 5y ago
    Why hasn't that happened already in countries with very high vaccine rates, like Israel?
    - lalaland1125 5y ago
      Israel's vaccination rate isn't that high? They are only 60% vaccinated.
      - walterbell 5y ago
        https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628... > Israel was the first country on Earth to fully vaccinate a majority of its citizens against COVID-19. Now it has one of the world's highest daily infection rates — an average of nearly 7,500 confirmed cases a day, double what it was two weeks ago. Nearly one in every 150 people in Israel today has the virus. Not a great advertisement for non-sterilizing vaccines.
        endless1234 5y ago
        Why ignore the GPs argument? Israel has vaccinated 61% of their population. Of course the 39% who aren't vaccinated will continue to spread it like before, even more so if restrictions are lifted.
        over_the_raibow 5y ago
        >Of course the 39% who aren't vaccinated will continue to spread it like before Why do you lie, vaccinated people spread the virus just as much
        jtc331 5y ago
        The 61% is misleading because it includes children ineligible for the vaccine. My undertow that they’ve vaccinated something like 80% of adults (one of the highest on the world).
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
        ImPostingOnHN 5y ago
        80% of adults is misleading because it excludes children who can still get the virus and spread it to others tbh the concept of herd immunity doesn't care about who the law says can get vaccinated
        angelzen 5y ago
        An unvaccinated child has less chance of severe covid compared to a vaccinated adult. Covid is different between child and adults, reasonable to hypothesize that transmission is also different. > Evidence from studies primarily done before vaccine approval for those 12 years of age and older suggests that staff-to-staff transmission is more common than transmission from students to staff, staff to student, or student to student. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#sars-cov-2 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-br...
    - halflife 5y ago
      I’m from Israel, we were in an excellent condition couple of months ago, but once the vaccination started to lose its potency we see a steep rise in infections and hospitalizations. Now that we are deep into the booster shot we see the numbers of infections and hospitalizations start to drop again.
  - nradov 5y ago
    There is no scientific evidence that it will be possible to get the growth factor below 1.0. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
  - newbamboo 5y ago
    I didn’t think there were people who still believe herd immunity is possible at this point. Maybe that’s not what you’re saying?
- konspence 5y ago
  Just admit that you're antivax and let's move on. And yes, "I am not always against vaccines" does not count.
- simonh 5y ago
  Meanwhile here in the UK, with very high vaccination rates, we've been out of lockdown for a while now, are very much getting back to normal life and have low hospitalisation rates. If that's not a 'society wide benefit' I'd like to know what is. We may need further short tactical lockdowns, and are considering booster shots for the elderly, but the situation here is night and day compared to the US and many other countries thanks to an effective vaccination programme with broad popular support. It's amazing to me how the political culture of the right has diverged between the US and Europe, and here in the UK particularly. For us responsible behaviour in public and prompt vaccination are conservative touchstones, not exclusively conservative of course but very much seen as not just compatible with conservatism but flowing directly from it's basic principles. What's happened to Republicanism in the US is confusing, and rather horrifying from that perspective.
  - jtbayly 5y ago
    You might want to read up on Israel before you assume it is because of the high rate of vaccination that you happen to be in a valley of infections again.
    - simonh 5y ago
      Oh we have plenty of infections, tens of thousands of cases per day, but we have much fewer deaths because infected vaccinated people rarely get sick and if they do are extremely unlikely to die. Early this year we were seeing similar rates of new infections per day, but about a thousand people were dying every day. Nowadays the death rate is about a tenth of that, concentrated among the remaining unvaccinated population. Israel seems to be having a similar experience, people are catching the virus but those that are vaccinated aren't dying as a result. They're introducing mask mandates and considering tactical lockdowns to try and protect the unvaccinated population. We may need to do the same, nevertheless the best way to protect people who can't be vaccinated is to vaccinate everyone who can be.
- ImPostingOnHN 5y ago
  whether or not the "scaling effect" is the same is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does whether or not society must continue to pay an ongoing price for mitigations is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does whether or not society can move on after a one-time vaccine cost is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does the goalposts were set at "provides a societal benefit", which it does

Reducing does not have the same scaling effect as stopping, e.g. society must continue to pay an ongoing price for mitigations. Stopping means society can move on after a one-time vaccine cost. There are intranasal (e.g. inhaler) vaccines under development, which may provide nasal/mucosal antibodies. Until those are available, recovery from natural infection will provide both nasal/mucosal and blood/serum antibodies. This path is available to both the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

lalaland1125 5y ago
For things defined by exponential growth like viruses, you don't have to stop them 100%. All you have to do is get the growth factor below 1.0 and the virus will die out as it can't infect enough people to stay alive.
- walterbell 5y ago
  Why hasn't that happened already in countries with very high vaccine rates, like Israel?
  - lalaland1125 5y ago
    Israel's vaccination rate isn't that high? They are only 60% vaccinated.
    - walterbell 5y ago
      https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628... > Israel was the first country on Earth to fully vaccinate a majority of its citizens against COVID-19. Now it has one of the world's highest daily infection rates — an average of nearly 7,500 confirmed cases a day, double what it was two weeks ago. Nearly one in every 150 people in Israel today has the virus. Not a great advertisement for non-sterilizing vaccines.
      - endless1234 5y ago
        Why ignore the GPs argument? Israel has vaccinated 61% of their population. Of course the 39% who aren't vaccinated will continue to spread it like before, even more so if restrictions are lifted.
        over_the_raibow 5y ago
        >Of course the 39% who aren't vaccinated will continue to spread it like before Why do you lie, vaccinated people spread the virus just as much
        jtc331 5y ago
        The 61% is misleading because it includes children ineligible for the vaccine. My undertow that they’ve vaccinated something like 80% of adults (one of the highest on the world).
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
        ImPostingOnHN 5y ago
        80% of adults is misleading because it excludes children who can still get the virus and spread it to others tbh the concept of herd immunity doesn't care about who the law says can get vaccinated
        angelzen 5y ago
        An unvaccinated child has less chance of severe covid compared to a vaccinated adult. Covid is different between child and adults, reasonable to hypothesize that transmission is also different. > Evidence from studies primarily done before vaccine approval for those 12 years of age and older suggests that staff-to-staff transmission is more common than transmission from students to staff, staff to student, or student to student. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#sars-cov-2 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-br...
  - halflife 5y ago
    I’m from Israel, we were in an excellent condition couple of months ago, but once the vaccination started to lose its potency we see a steep rise in infections and hospitalizations. Now that we are deep into the booster shot we see the numbers of infections and hospitalizations start to drop again.
- nradov 5y ago
  There is no scientific evidence that it will be possible to get the growth factor below 1.0. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
- newbamboo 5y ago
  I didn’t think there were people who still believe herd immunity is possible at this point. Maybe that’s not what you’re saying?
konspence 5y ago
Just admit that you're antivax and let's move on. And yes, "I am not always against vaccines" does not count.
simonh 5y ago
Meanwhile here in the UK, with very high vaccination rates, we've been out of lockdown for a while now, are very much getting back to normal life and have low hospitalisation rates. If that's not a 'society wide benefit' I'd like to know what is. We may need further short tactical lockdowns, and are considering booster shots for the elderly, but the situation here is night and day compared to the US and many other countries thanks to an effective vaccination programme with broad popular support. It's amazing to me how the political culture of the right has diverged between the US and Europe, and here in the UK particularly. For us responsible behaviour in public and prompt vaccination are conservative touchstones, not exclusively conservative of course but very much seen as not just compatible with conservatism but flowing directly from it's basic principles. What's happened to Republicanism in the US is confusing, and rather horrifying from that perspective.
- jtbayly 5y ago
  You might want to read up on Israel before you assume it is because of the high rate of vaccination that you happen to be in a valley of infections again.
  - simonh 5y ago
    Oh we have plenty of infections, tens of thousands of cases per day, but we have much fewer deaths because infected vaccinated people rarely get sick and if they do are extremely unlikely to die. Early this year we were seeing similar rates of new infections per day, but about a thousand people were dying every day. Nowadays the death rate is about a tenth of that, concentrated among the remaining unvaccinated population. Israel seems to be having a similar experience, people are catching the virus but those that are vaccinated aren't dying as a result. They're introducing mask mandates and considering tactical lockdowns to try and protect the unvaccinated population. We may need to do the same, nevertheless the best way to protect people who can't be vaccinated is to vaccinate everyone who can be.
ImPostingOnHN 5y ago
whether or not the "scaling effect" is the same is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does whether or not society must continue to pay an ongoing price for mitigations is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does whether or not society can move on after a one-time vaccine cost is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does the goalposts were set at "provides a societal benefit", which it does