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This guy claims inflation in the 8-10% range for the last 15 years, which translates to a 3-4x price increase since 2006. Anecdotally, having tracked all my ex

This guy claims inflation in the 8-10% range for the last 15 years, which translates to a 3-4x price increase since 2006. Anecdotally, having tracked all my expenses since becoming an adult in 2006, in my area I have noticed: * Food prices 1-1.5x (unchanged to 50% higher or so). * Rent prices ~2x. * House prices ~4x. * Gas prices 1.5x * Transit prices 1.5x * Alcohol prices 1-1.2x * Entertainment prices 1-1.5x * Newest iPhone 1.8x * Newest Playstation 1x The housing crisis stands out as an obvious outlier, but most of this is consistent with inflation in the 2-3% range.

klipklop 5y ago
Food prices are hard to notice because often instead of raising the price they make the package smaller. So on top of your 50% price increase you might get slightly less food for the dollar. I find it interesting that the PlayStation stayed rather flat, but the iPhone went up so much over time. 8-10% inflation does not sound like it's true, but it's certainly higher than the CPI suggests.
- johnsimer 5y ago
  Based on OP's detailed-orientedness, I'd assume he was tracking his total monthly food expenses.
  - klipklop 5y ago
    I understand that, but if a container of food shrinks by an ounce or two over time most won't buy an entire extra one to make up the difference. If you could buy all food by weight this would be easier to notice and make an apples to apples comparison. Hat's off to the parent comment if they even tracked it down to the exact amount of food and kept it consistent for years. Most people set a budget of $X dollars of food that is rather generous and if they get slightly less food they don't notice because they are already buying an excess of calories most of the time.
    - Negitivefrags 5y ago
      Are you seriously suggesting that food prices have increased more and people are just generally eating less calories?
      - klipklop 5y ago
        Allow me clarify, I think people in general consume more calories than they did in the past. They are just 'wasting' less food. Most people when buying food budget money, not calories. So if food producers shave off a few ounces over time you won't notice because you already buy a surplus of food to begin with. The surplus just shrinks ever so slightly on the consumers end. That unused 2 ounces at the bottom of the mayo jar is now 1. That pack of fruit snacks has 1 less in the pouch, etc. It usually takes a dramatic sudden change for most consumers to notice "shrinkflation". I have noticed that when somebody says "so you are saying/suggesting X," X was never actually said/suggested. A frustrating thing to encounter in a discussion. Sorry if I was unclear.
    - cecilpl2 5y ago
      As I mentioned in the sister comment I do indeed track unit prices for things like meat, dairy, and produce. My total monthly expenses have increased by roughly 50-100% since 2006, but that's also because I now earn more, buy more expensive things like steak and good cheese, and am more physically active so eat larger quantities. I actually think that I overstated food price increase marginally. Many things I buy are the same price they were 15 years ago.
      - klipklop 5y ago
        I admire the thoroughness of your data collection. I don't doubt your numbers at all. If anything the only huge inflation I ever see is not in consumer goods, but in appreciating assets.
  - cecilpl2 5y ago
    I am indeed referring to total monthly food expenses, and also individual prices for things I track the unit cost of, like meat, dairy, and produce. To break it down further, best unit prices from 2006 to present: Lean ground beef: $3/lb -> $4/lb Chicken breast: $26/4kg -> $26/4kg Pork tenderloins: $2/lb -> $2/lb Milk: $4/gal -> $4.50/gal Apples: $0.69/lb -> $0.99/lb Green Peppers: $0.99/lb -> $1.49/lb I'll stop there but you get the idea. I've noticed pasta boxes shrinking from 500g to 454g at some point in the last 10 years, as did bacon going from 454g to 375g. But those are fairly isolated changes and bacon prices have also tripled in that time period for some reason.
    - gowld 5y ago
      Where are you in that mixes lb and kg like that? I've never seen a 500g box of pasta in my entire life. I've can't remember when apples were cheap, even the cheapest varieties. Milk is priced by subsidied and loss leaders, so it isn't practical for tracking inflation.
- nabla9 5y ago
  CPI tries to take into account changes in quality and quantity. If new iPhone has better quality than old iPhone so that price increase of CPI is not the difference of iPhone prices. You are paying more to get more.
  - klipklop 5y ago
    What metrics would you use to determine if an iPhone is better quality than older models? Quality sounds rather subjective and they did not always calculate CPI with taking that into account. Seems like they don't share the criteria they use to determine 'quality'. They added the quality weight to make the overall numbers look lower. I have zero idea if that distorts it, or makes it more correct.
    - cecilpl2 5y ago
      Here's a detailed example (with math!) of the CPI Hedonic Quality Adjustment for TVs. I found it by googling "CPI quality adjustment". https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/questions-and-ans...
      - klipklop 5y ago
        "Hedonic regression model" sounds fancy and all, but look at their charts just filled with arbitrary numbers accessing various features. Funny to see how they weighted various, now failed, technologies/features.
    - nabla9 5y ago
      They share the information and document it. Please don't succumb to some conspiratory thinking. They can't take everything into account and hedonic adjustments is used for only small percentage of products. That's one reason why it overestimates inflation.
      - klipklop 5y ago
        I don't think the folks that make the CPI are part of some vast conspiracy. I just question their methods. Like all numbers from the government, politics are involved. You can believe they are (slightly) wrong and not be a "conspiracy theorist/thinker" at the same time.
- ahahahahah 5y ago
  This is a really strange (i.e. wrong) comment considering that the CPI adjusts for changes in the size of things.
  - JetSetWilly 5y ago
    The response is not to the CPI - it is to an individual tracking food costs themselves anecdotally.
amznthrwaway 5y ago
Thank you; this guy is an obvious grifter, and it saddens me how many people know math in theory, but still fall for the nonsense. He’s realized that there are people who will pay $175/yr for a newsletter that confirms their priors (inflation is secretly out of control), and that these people will keep buying and recommending the newsletter even after _decades_ of it being obviously wrong. I mean, on the one hand, good for him. He realized there’s a market of people who want to be lied to, and he lies to them for a fee. But it’s nonsensical for it to be posted anywhere serious.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nradov 5y ago
Rent is a valid part of inflation but house prices are not. Real estate is an investment, not an expense. It doesn't factor into inflation for the same reason that stocks aren't a factor. Instead for homeowners the BLS calculates owner's equivalent rent. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHC https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHC

klipklop 5y ago

Food prices are hard to notice because often instead of raising the price they make the package smaller. So on top of your 50% price increase you might get slightly less food for the dollar. I find it interesting that the PlayStation stayed rather flat, but the iPhone went up so much over time. 8-10% inflation does not sound like it's true, but it's certainly higher than the CPI suggests.

johnsimer 5y ago
Based on OP's detailed-orientedness, I'd assume he was tracking his total monthly food expenses.
- klipklop 5y ago
  I understand that, but if a container of food shrinks by an ounce or two over time most won't buy an entire extra one to make up the difference. If you could buy all food by weight this would be easier to notice and make an apples to apples comparison. Hat's off to the parent comment if they even tracked it down to the exact amount of food and kept it consistent for years. Most people set a budget of $X dollars of food that is rather generous and if they get slightly less food they don't notice because they are already buying an excess of calories most of the time.
  - Negitivefrags 5y ago
    Are you seriously suggesting that food prices have increased more and people are just generally eating less calories?
    - klipklop 5y ago
      Allow me clarify, I think people in general consume more calories than they did in the past. They are just 'wasting' less food. Most people when buying food budget money, not calories. So if food producers shave off a few ounces over time you won't notice because you already buy a surplus of food to begin with. The surplus just shrinks ever so slightly on the consumers end. That unused 2 ounces at the bottom of the mayo jar is now 1. That pack of fruit snacks has 1 less in the pouch, etc. It usually takes a dramatic sudden change for most consumers to notice "shrinkflation". I have noticed that when somebody says "so you are saying/suggesting X," X was never actually said/suggested. A frustrating thing to encounter in a discussion. Sorry if I was unclear.
  - cecilpl2 5y ago
    As I mentioned in the sister comment I do indeed track unit prices for things like meat, dairy, and produce. My total monthly expenses have increased by roughly 50-100% since 2006, but that's also because I now earn more, buy more expensive things like steak and good cheese, and am more physically active so eat larger quantities. I actually think that I overstated food price increase marginally. Many things I buy are the same price they were 15 years ago.
    - klipklop 5y ago
      I admire the thoroughness of your data collection. I don't doubt your numbers at all. If anything the only huge inflation I ever see is not in consumer goods, but in appreciating assets.
- cecilpl2 5y ago
  I am indeed referring to total monthly food expenses, and also individual prices for things I track the unit cost of, like meat, dairy, and produce. To break it down further, best unit prices from 2006 to present: Lean ground beef: $3/lb -> $4/lb Chicken breast: $26/4kg -> $26/4kg Pork tenderloins: $2/lb -> $2/lb Milk: $4/gal -> $4.50/gal Apples: $0.69/lb -> $0.99/lb Green Peppers: $0.99/lb -> $1.49/lb I'll stop there but you get the idea. I've noticed pasta boxes shrinking from 500g to 454g at some point in the last 10 years, as did bacon going from 454g to 375g. But those are fairly isolated changes and bacon prices have also tripled in that time period for some reason.
  - gowld 5y ago
    Where are you in that mixes lb and kg like that? I've never seen a 500g box of pasta in my entire life. I've can't remember when apples were cheap, even the cheapest varieties. Milk is priced by subsidied and loss leaders, so it isn't practical for tracking inflation.
nabla9 5y ago
CPI tries to take into account changes in quality and quantity. If new iPhone has better quality than old iPhone so that price increase of CPI is not the difference of iPhone prices. You are paying more to get more.
- klipklop 5y ago
  What metrics would you use to determine if an iPhone is better quality than older models? Quality sounds rather subjective and they did not always calculate CPI with taking that into account. Seems like they don't share the criteria they use to determine 'quality'. They added the quality weight to make the overall numbers look lower. I have zero idea if that distorts it, or makes it more correct.
  - cecilpl2 5y ago
    Here's a detailed example (with math!) of the CPI Hedonic Quality Adjustment for TVs. I found it by googling "CPI quality adjustment". https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/questions-and-ans...
    - klipklop 5y ago
      "Hedonic regression model" sounds fancy and all, but look at their charts just filled with arbitrary numbers accessing various features. Funny to see how they weighted various, now failed, technologies/features.
  - nabla9 5y ago
    They share the information and document it. Please don't succumb to some conspiratory thinking. They can't take everything into account and hedonic adjustments is used for only small percentage of products. That's one reason why it overestimates inflation.
    - klipklop 5y ago
      I don't think the folks that make the CPI are part of some vast conspiracy. I just question their methods. Like all numbers from the government, politics are involved. You can believe they are (slightly) wrong and not be a "conspiracy theorist/thinker" at the same time.
ahahahahah 5y ago
This is a really strange (i.e. wrong) comment considering that the CPI adjusts for changes in the size of things.
- JetSetWilly 5y ago
  The response is not to the CPI - it is to an individual tracking food costs themselves anecdotally.

amznthrwaway 5y ago

Thank you; this guy is an obvious grifter, and it saddens me how many people know math in theory, but still fall for the nonsense. He’s realized that there are people who will pay $175/yr for a newsletter that confirms their priors (inflation is secretly out of control), and that these people will keep buying and recommending the newsletter even after _decades_ of it being obviously wrong. I mean, on the one hand, good for him. He realized there’s a market of people who want to be lied to, and he lies to them for a fee. But it’s nonsensical for it to be posted anywhere serious.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

nradov 5y ago

Rent is a valid part of inflation but house prices are not. Real estate is an investment, not an expense. It doesn't factor into inflation for the same reason that stocks aren't a factor. Instead for homeowners the BLS calculates owner's equivalent rent. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHC https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHC