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I simply cannot wrap my mind around what is happening in Australia. Continuing a lockwdown while the number of positive covid cases remains in the low hundreds
by roody15 5y ago
I simply cannot wrap my mind around what is happening in Australia. Continuing a lockwdown while the number of positive covid cases remains in the low hundreds and the daily death rate in the lower tens to single digits.
Nothing makes sense here. Draconian laws, complete shutdown over something that is and has been statistically under control and managed from months.
Am I alone here or do people really think what is going on in Australia makes sense and that attempting to completely eradicate a virus that may be as easily spread as the common cold makes sense.
Serious cannot leave your house outside and go outside for a jog … because there are 50 positive cases in a nation of millions ?
My mind is blown.
- bradrn 5y agoAs an Australian, I should note that the reason positive cases were in the low hundreds — actually, low tens most of the time — was precisely because of the lockdowns. Once people stopped obeying the lockdowns, positive cases started rising, and we ended up with the current situation here in Sydney with ~1500 cases per day. The only reason it’s not any higher is because (a) we still have lockdown in place, and most people comply, and (b) we’re rapidly getting vaccinated as I type. (And also, the lockdowns weren’t continuous by any measure. Lockdown restrictions were consistently relaxed as soon as cases dropped to single digits.)
- fcklckdwns 5y agoYeah it's great. Lockdowns also reduce car accidents, plane accidents, boat accidents, bicycle accidents, gym accidents, etc. Incredible. I suggest we keep going forever because it saves so many lives.
- prohobo 5y agoRight, there's something disconcerting about the way people are behaving in this situation, and it's hard to process this as something that could reasonably happen. "I thought we were rational people in a free society?" The terrible thing is that this is exactly how people behaved in "historical" times - a foreshadowing to what lies ahead. The vast majority of people believe we are post-history, and that we're somehow more rational and good than previous generations. This isn't true, and people are just as susceptible to insane fantasies as they've always been. We're in danger now because of these people. What we're seeing is exactly what it looks like: mass psychosis on the level of witch-hunts, with incompetent and superstitious leaders trying to rule with underhanded measures. There's nothing to try to understand here, it's just time to wake up from the delusion that everything is stable and properly managed.
- wutbrodo 5y ago> . "I thought we were rational people in a free society There is no polity in the world in which "rational people" drove covid policy (or individual behavior) to any significant degree. Whether we're talking about Florida's low restrictions and high cases or the Bay Area's converse outcome, the best you can hope for is that the masses, through their blind superstition and social signaling, ended up somewhere close to the policy/behavior landscape that you think is optimal.
- prohobo 5y agoI don't disagree with this; it seems that if you ask most people who aren't following mandates why they're not following them you'll get a lot of poorly thought out answers. I would even say that DeSantis isn't really trying to follow science in his decisions, but more trying to align with the beliefs of Floridians. Sweden is one country which seems to have made the right decisions, though they themselves have said they would have done lockdowns if it were legal to do so. Because of that, I'd say that Sweden is at least competent and transparent in it's democratic policies. Other countries simply made lockdowns legal, clearly subverting their own established democratic processes. Now Sweden seems to be quite happy about it's decisions though.
- raxxorrax 5y agoThe difference between modern and medieval people isn't physiological, it is just education. But since stupidity is unlimited, it will just pick up a new mantle and look a bit different. Rules of public relation will make it increasingly difficult for any official to take a more relaxed stand. Fearful people are motivated people and will make themselves heard, no matter if their fears are justified or not.
- thesagan 5y agoBoiling it down to just education is too reductionist. Education is part of reciprocal human interaction and the academy (often associated with education) is itself an ancient institution. What's different is our collection and employment of knowledge.
- SilverRed 5y ago> Continuing a lockwdown while the number of positive covid cases remains in the low hundreds and the daily death rate in the lower tens to single digits. Surely you can see how this is equivalent to asking why the company hires a system admin when the system hardly ever goes down or gets hacked. And you have always been allowed outside for a jog. Please do not spread false information.
- throwawaythekey 5y ago> And you have always been allowed outside for a jog If you're in Victoria it can't be a long jog (2hr total per day), and it can't be after 9pm though! Sorry for being pedantic but really it should be you are allowed outside for a jog sometimes
- 0xdeadb00f 5y agoThis talk about "Draconian" lockdown in Australia needs to stop. Our privacy and digital rights laws are awful. But the lockdowns are necessary. NSW had upward of 1000+ cases and that's why they're (still) in a strict lockdown. QLD and i beleive WA as well for example are not in lockdown at all because of their much much lower daily cases. Also, "50 cases in a nation of millions"? I dont know where you're getting your info, but NSW and Victoria are NOT on top of COVID: https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-case-numbers-and-statistics https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavir...
- roody15 5y ago1200+ cases in NSW out of a population of over 8 million. So we should extend a strict lockdown … to do what exactly? Is the plan to manage this virus with a series of alternating lockdowns and get the number of cases to zero? Is this realistic, is this the type of world you want to live in? The virus appears to be as contagious as chicken pox, vaccines help with serious cases but are doing little unfortunately to stop the spread. At what point do you think it would make sense to manage the disease and resume normal life instead of draconian lockdowns for a untenable goal?
- shushpanchik 5y agoPlease put some effort in getting information instead of creating straw man. NSW and Victoria are in a lockdown to have time to get 70-80% of eligible population double-vaccinated. Modelling by couple of institutes show that if lockdown ends today, hospitals would be overwhelmed and lots of preventable deaths occur. By all estimates we would reach that 70-80% number in 1-3 months time, so that's the plan. Google for "Doherty Institute planning", visit https://covidlive.com.au https://covidlive.com.au, check daily press conference of VIC and NSW premiers - answers to your questions are in plain sight.
- CountDrewku 5y agoSo the "plan" is to do what other countries have already done and didn't stop the spread? That's a bold strategy Cotton.
- shakna 5y ago> Continuing a lockwdown while the number of positive covid cases remains in the low hundreds and the daily death rate in the lower tens to single digits. Correction - thousands, not hundreds. But comparison to the previous numbers is required, because it's approaching the peak we've seen. So close to highest ever, rather than something to be dismissed. > Serious cannot leave your house outside and go outside for a jog … because there are 50 positive cases in a nation of millions ? ... You can still do that. There are several allowed reasons to leave your house, and exercise is one of those, and always has been.
- roody15 5y agoDo you have to wear a mask when jogging outside? (or walking etc). Can you jog with your family or small group of friends?
- shakna 5y ago> Do you have to wear a mask when jogging outside? (or walking etc). Jogging, no you don't have to wear a mask. Walking, depends where you live. > Can you jog with your family or small group of friends? Depends where you live. But you're always allowed at least one other person, you're not cut off from humanity.
- throwawaythekey 5y agoOne day at the beginning of the pandemic I was out exercising and the police interrogated me over wearing jeans instead of sports wear. The copper was unsatisfied by my responses and directed me to return home + threatened a fine of several thousand dollars if I did not comply. > Do you have to wear a mask when jogging outside? Given my encounter and as jogging isn't well defined I assume this is at the discretion of the nearest officer.
- Gatsky 5y agoThis is pretty hyperbolic. Examination of global excess deaths would tell you that the lockdowns were successful in their stated primary aim. Australia and NZ had significantly fewer excess deaths during the first wave [1]. And if they continue with lockdowns, they will have signficantly fewer excess deaths again no matter what else happens. You may think this isn't a good trade-off, which is a fine point to make, but I don't think any minds need to be blown. [1] https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1434228604666368007?s=20 https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1434228604666368007?s=2...
- roody15 5y agoYou are correct I think this is not a good trade-off. However I stand by “my mind is blown” that continuing with these draconian measures and the lock down approach borders on madness. For reference in my part of the world we are fully open going on the 5th week of full in person schooling. All athletic teams and events have resumed with full crowds. In a school district of 2600 students we have over 45 positive cases (temp quarantine). The week prior we had 35 cases. Neither of these case numbers are concerning and we continue to promote vaccination and frequent testing to limit the spread.
- Gatsky 5y agoIt's hard to evaluate what this means without knowing, at least, the demographic make up of your part of the world, the vaccination rates, the vaccination kinetics, and health system capacity and access. I could equally cherry pick places with more disastrous outcomes as a counterargument eg Italy early on. Nevertheless, I'm envious of your lack of restrictions. I haven't seen my father for a long time.
- roody15 5y agoSorry that you haven’t seen your father that is a bummer. Not cherry picking literally describing the town and school system where I live. Hospitals are busier with an uptick in covid patients however they are not overwhelmed.
- 5y ago
- jakecopp 5y agoThis is false. We currently have ~1500 positive cases per day in NSW in Australia. NSW is planning to lift restrictions in mid October once vaccine rates hit 70%. ICU capacity is just about at 100%, with the peak to hit in the next few weeks. I'm pretty happy to be in lockdown for a little bit longer in this situation.
- jussij 5y ago> because there are 50 positive cases in a nation of millions Australia is currently experiencing 1500 daily case of COVID with some 30,000+ cumulative case since the start of this last outbreak which is now some two months old. > Nothing makes sense here. Firstly only three of the seven states and territories are in lock down. Four states and territories are experiencing zero cases and for them life is very close to normal. However, the reason two states are now in lock down is because, as a developed country, Australia is last in terms of vaccination roll out. And it is not only last, it is last by a long way. There are only two ways to deal with COVID: 1. Lock down until the vaccination numbers improve 2. Open up and let the virus rip and hope the hospital system can cope with the increased demand. NSW is currently in lock down (i.e. option 1) and even with these strict rules in place the health system is not coping well, as it struggles with the uptick in COVID hospitalizations. The simple fact is Australia stuffed up the vaccination roll out and we are now paying the price for that mistake.
- RileyJames 5y ago> Serious cannot leave your house outside and go outside for a jog This is simply not true. Why are you making a factually incorrect statement? Even at the highest lockdown level you are allowed to leave your home to exercise. NSW: https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/rules/greater-sydney https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/rules/greater-sydney VIC: https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/202109/stay-at-home-directions-%28victoria%29-%28no-8%29.pdf https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/20...
- stephen_g 5y agoPerhaps you're misinformed. The laws the article is talking about are the big problem - they're Federal and permanent (at least until we have a sane Government elected to reform and repeal them). The COVID lockdowns are all operating under temporary state of emergencies under the State Governments. There's no actual reason to think they will be 'extended forever' like some crazies seem to think. For several states, our State Governments are actually much more competent and better in many ways than the Federal Government. Of course, a big part of the reason lockdowns are needed is because the Federal Government botched some vaccine deals with Pfizer etc. so we started vaccinating very late and have been continually supply-constrained since then. The lockdowns have actually have tended to work effectively - for instance, in my state we've had a few lockdowns and have been able to quash every outbreak so far. So we've been mostly COVID free as we are at the moment, so there is no lockdown right now. Right now I can freely travel to any state except NSW, ACT and Victoria (which are hotspots). I would have to quarantine to go to WA though, but hopefully our state goes from "Low Risk" to "Very Low Risk" by their Government's rating soon so I can take a holiday there without two weeks quarantine. The main actually ridiculous restriction is the Federal Government's ban on travel out of the country. That is wrong, and probably unconstitutional. Travel out should absolutely be allowed, just with the proviso that there may not be quarantine capacity for months to return (perhaps you should need to have to book in advance and pay a deposit if you intend to return in the next year). Although apparently it is actually ridiculously easy to get an exception to leave, I have a few friends that have taken jobs overseas and their applications were approved in hours with no questions (not even asked for any evidence they actually had a job offer).
- _fat_santa 5y agoIt's not misinformation, it's that were looking at Australia from the outside. If you live in the US, pretty much any and all restrictions have been lifted for daily life. You see that there are still Covid cases and deaths, but they have dwindled in comparison to last year and life is pretty much back to how it was Pre-pandemic. So it's absolutely insane to see that for the same or less daily Covid cases/deaths, Australia is going into lockdowns and imposing draconian restrictions. That's the disconnect between for many of us. At least in the US, any politician even suggesting such measures nowadays would be politically crucified.
- quickthrower2 5y agoI’m happy with lockdowns. I think they should have locked down sooner in NSW for the current outbreak. The alternative is just let a shitload of people die because it enough ventilators to have 100k cases. I’m not happy with the vaccination sagas and lack of care with the index case that caused the outbreak though.
- Nursie 5y ago> Serious cannot leave your house outside and go outside for a jog … because there are 50 positive cases in a nation of millions ? There were around 1.5k new cases in NSW today. NSW is in lockdown. Victoria has new cases too, but is opening up its regional areas where they are covid free. WA has no cases and no lockdown. It's not like the whole country is locked down over 50 cases - there are many times that many, and the whole country is not locked down.
- loftyal 5y agoThey're trying to buy enough time to get enough people vaccinated before they "let it rip". Delta has an extremely high R value and will come back in force. This way we eliminate many more unnecessary deaths. Not hard to understand.
- christophilus 5y agoAmerican here. It appears to me to be poor incentives reinforcing themselves in the political sphere. If you make a single metric the measure of success, most will go to extremes to game that metric. Australian politicians seem to have made the low number of COVID infections the sole measure of their success. The result is somewhat predictable.
- bjowen 5y agoThirty thousand cases today, with about 1700 added overnight - and that is with the lockdowns. You may still personally consider this an overreaction, but please do not invite other people to that conclusion with incorrect data.