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I am far from a subject matter expert on this, but I have been doing my best to read up on this lately. It seems like we’re globally diverging on fabrication ex
by CSSer 5y ago
I am far from a subject matter expert on this, but I have been doing my best to read up on this lately. It seems like we’re globally diverging on fabrication expertise at a process level i.e. nanometer scale [0]. The bulk of leading edge chip manufacturing (currently around 7nm or below) seems to indeed be slipping away to Southeast Asia, but as you said the U.S. is holding their own at larger process levels (Cree is mentioned in the article as well) and still producing at a volume that may be surprising to many doomsayers. It’s worth noting at this point that, according to the article I linked below, it is estimated that five larger process chips are required for every leading process chip produced. So this doesn’t seem to entirely be an accident on the part of U.S. companies. Sure, some companies like Intel have simply failed to innovate in the past few years, but others seem to have made a calculated decision to avoid massive R&D expenditures that may or may not pay off as we begin to approach the limits of Moore’s law. The reality is that leading edge chip fabs are extraordinarily expensive. I read a podcast transcript recently with a prominent professor who is an expert in this field [1]. He mentioned that he did some consulting for the U.S. Govt., and when they asked him for his estimate for how much it would cost in subsidies to catch up with or outpace the rest of the world in fabs his response made the guy who asked the question practically fall out of his chair. Have we reached a point where quantity (at an average level of quality) is now more important than having the fastest and the smallest IP?
[0]: https://semiengineering.com/can-the-u-s-regain-its-edge-in-chip-manufacturing/ https://semiengineering.com/can-the-u-s-regain-its-edge-in-c...
[1]: https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/31/22648372/willy-shih-chip-shortage-tsmc-samsung-ps5-decoder-interview https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/31/22648372/willy-shih-chip-...
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago> seems to indeed be slipping away to Southeast Asia Do you mean east Asia? Southeast Asia still doesn’t have much fab capacity, and most of what it has isn’t very sophisticated, unless I’m missing something?
- RC_ITR 5y agoI think this is just some people's reflexive notion that 'China + sometimes Japan' = East Asia & 'Rest of Asia' = southeast Asia. It was mostly started by China companies like Alibaba treating any international expansion as 'Southeast Asia,' since they did it via HK or SG offices.
- CSSer 5y agoYes, sorry. East Asia is what I meant. To be completely honest, I’m not sure if I read SE Asia somewhere or if I’ve always just thought of Taiwan as SE Asia for some reason. Mercator projections, maybe? Anyway, today I learned Taiwan is in East Asia, north of Southeast Asia.
- seanmcdirmid 5y agoTaiwan is barely on the edge between Japan (East Asia) and the Philippines (SE Asia). But culturally is very East Asian.
- cma 5y agoEUV LLC was heavily funded by DARPA and US industry in the 90s and is why we are able to have export restrictions on (European) ASML machines used by TSMC for the latest EUV nodes.