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I was born in 1958 and it is amazing to me what has been invented even since then. But in the early 60's it seemed like the future was limitless. I distinctly

I was born in 1958 and it is amazing to me what has been invented even since then. But in the early 60's it seemed like the future was limitless. I distinctly remember the promise of flying cars, vacations on the moon, and electricity via nuclear power that would be "too cheap to meter". Even Arthur C. Clark's seminal science fiction classic was set in 2001 - hey, that's 20 years ago! I really wonder what kind of advances we'll see in 200 more years and what kind of society they will enable. With things like social media, AI, face recognition, a divided nation here in the USA, and all the complexities and complications from climate change, the future seems to be one massive challenge after another, with our species frequently making decisions that is not in its best interest. Does the future give us both better tools and improved judgement to use them for the common good?

someothherguyy 5y ago
Back then, advertisers and book dealers sold wild futurism because it made them money. Now media outlets new and old sell fear and uncertainty for the same reason. There is no crystal ball.
- aardvarkr 5y ago
  This is very true and it makes me very sad. I wish we were forward-looking as a society pushing towards a great future but instead we’re looking backwards and holding onto the past
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
adventured 5y ago
> the promise of flying cars What's the promise of flying cars though? I'd suggest they're largely a terrible idea, wildly inefficient as a mode of transportation, and should not exist unless we come up with an extraordinary energy breakthrough that entirely remakes the planet. There are plenty of terrible ideas we've chosen not to pursue because they're irrational. We could make flying garbage trucks. Who doesn't want hovering garbage trucks. So futuristic! It's a terrible idea. We could make buses that can fly. It's a terrible idea. We could all try to live in underwater cities. It's a terrible idea. We could all try to live in orbit around the planet. It's a terrible idea. The lack of flying cars isn't a failure. It's the ideal outcome (for now). I don't get the appeal of low quality fantasy ideas that were obviously absurd. I don't get why people dwell on mediocre ideas from the past as an indictment of the present. It seems like a cheap excuse to lash the present for not being good enough. Electricity too cheap to meter was obviously not going to happen at scale, it was an incorrect premise that wasn't thought through at all (as though nuclear power plants, infrastructure, maintenance, replacement, labor were also going to be free or nearly so). I'd call it a very foolish notion by the person that suggested it. Just because someone comes up with a fantastic premise and floats it out there (what if I could take a pill and live forever!), that doesn't mean the present failed by not realizing it. Sometimes they're just bad ideas or otherwise a false premise, supported by poor reasoning (if supported by anything).
- kccqzy 5y ago
  The promise of flying cars was in the 1960s, according to GP. You can see flying cars through the lens of 2021 and find that they don't make sense, but you can't say the same if you were looking through the lens of 1960s. > wildly inefficient as a mode of transportation Energy was plentiful in the 1960s. Gasoline was cheap. The oil crisis was in the 1970s. people hardly ever thought that there was a need to conserve energy. Plus, widespread cheap nuclear energy was on the horizon. > should not exist unless we come up with an extraordinary energy breakthrough that entirely remakes the planet Nuclear was such an imminent breakthrough back in 1960s.
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    With solar and storage becoming cheap, we are in many ways in the beginning of a cheap energy revolution. Think of that jet pack dude. Those things are about 5% efficient thermodynamically, and they use jet fuel which costs about 5-15 cents per chemical kWh of energy, so the cost per useful mechanical kWh is about $1-3. For electric power, you can use off-peak electricity at 5 cents per kWh (or solar power utility scale which is half of that and falling) and the efficiency is more like 80-95%, for a useful energy cost of between 3 and 6 cents per mechanical kWh. Plus, electric motors and batteries cost less than those microturbines. And the motors are comparable in specific power, even. So the ingredients are there for new modes of transport enabled by MUCH cheaper and more abundant mechanical energy. Which we are, in fact, seeing in the form of Urban Air Mobility vehicles. But it may take quite a while for all these things to make it through society. The 21st Century is the century of the lithium battery like the 20th Century was the century of the internal combustion engine. Brushless motors with high energy rare earth magnets are a big part of this new energy revolution. 200 years after Faraday invented the first electric motor.
  - visarga 5y ago
    > You can see flying cars through the lens of 2021 and find that they don't make sense but we got autonomous flying drones instead and almost self driving cars
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
martythemaniak 5y ago
Well, our species doesn't really make decisions. Individual and collections of individuals make choices that somehow end up accomplishing things. That there is anything at all is actually quite amazing. To take an optimistic view, the next few years will see flying minivans (Lillium etc) and people going on vacation in a space hotel in Low Earth Orbit. The future seems to be coming right along at its own pace.
billti 5y ago
> I really wonder what kind of advances we'll see in 200 more years and what kind of society they will enable. I _really_ hope I’m wrong, but I honesty think it’s probably a 50/50 chance we’ll make it that far. Besides what we’re doing to the planet and the lack of action we seem to be able to muster for that, our ability to create carnage (WMDs if you will) and them gradually falling into more hands seems high risk. (And what if something deadlier than Covid WAS developed in a lab and got into the wild?). Again, I hope our ingenuity pulls us through. But the damage a few lunatics with a lot of resources could affect 200 years ago was pretty limited. Now some hacker in Moscow can knock out energy pipelines on the East Coast of the U.S.
kleiba 5y ago
To me, I always feel that the sci-fi authors of that era believed in progress being fueled by noble causes, i.e., improving mankind. In reality, it is rather driven by commercial interest and while this has undoubtedly lead to amazing inventions across many fields, it can at the same time be a limiting factor. But I think this fact is more or less inevitable given how our society and economy are structured.
- saalweachter 5y ago
  I'd say 65% "commercial interest", 20% "improving mankind", 10% "I wonder what happens", and 5% "I'LL SHOW THEM ALL".

someothherguyy 5y ago

Back then, advertisers and book dealers sold wild futurism because it made them money. Now media outlets new and old sell fear and uncertainty for the same reason. There is no crystal ball.

aardvarkr 5y ago
This is very true and it makes me very sad. I wish we were forward-looking as a society pushing towards a great future but instead we’re looking backwards and holding onto the past
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

adventured 5y ago

> the promise of flying cars What's the promise of flying cars though? I'd suggest they're largely a terrible idea, wildly inefficient as a mode of transportation, and should not exist unless we come up with an extraordinary energy breakthrough that entirely remakes the planet. There are plenty of terrible ideas we've chosen not to pursue because they're irrational. We could make flying garbage trucks. Who doesn't want hovering garbage trucks. So futuristic! It's a terrible idea. We could make buses that can fly. It's a terrible idea. We could all try to live in underwater cities. It's a terrible idea. We could all try to live in orbit around the planet. It's a terrible idea. The lack of flying cars isn't a failure. It's the ideal outcome (for now). I don't get the appeal of low quality fantasy ideas that were obviously absurd. I don't get why people dwell on mediocre ideas from the past as an indictment of the present. It seems like a cheap excuse to lash the present for not being good enough. Electricity too cheap to meter was obviously not going to happen at scale, it was an incorrect premise that wasn't thought through at all (as though nuclear power plants, infrastructure, maintenance, replacement, labor were also going to be free or nearly so). I'd call it a very foolish notion by the person that suggested it. Just because someone comes up with a fantastic premise and floats it out there (what if I could take a pill and live forever!), that doesn't mean the present failed by not realizing it. Sometimes they're just bad ideas or otherwise a false premise, supported by poor reasoning (if supported by anything).

kccqzy 5y ago
The promise of flying cars was in the 1960s, according to GP. You can see flying cars through the lens of 2021 and find that they don't make sense, but you can't say the same if you were looking through the lens of 1960s. > wildly inefficient as a mode of transportation Energy was plentiful in the 1960s. Gasoline was cheap. The oil crisis was in the 1970s. people hardly ever thought that there was a need to conserve energy. Plus, widespread cheap nuclear energy was on the horizon. > should not exist unless we come up with an extraordinary energy breakthrough that entirely remakes the planet Nuclear was such an imminent breakthrough back in 1960s.
- Robotbeat 5y ago
  With solar and storage becoming cheap, we are in many ways in the beginning of a cheap energy revolution. Think of that jet pack dude. Those things are about 5% efficient thermodynamically, and they use jet fuel which costs about 5-15 cents per chemical kWh of energy, so the cost per useful mechanical kWh is about $1-3. For electric power, you can use off-peak electricity at 5 cents per kWh (or solar power utility scale which is half of that and falling) and the efficiency is more like 80-95%, for a useful energy cost of between 3 and 6 cents per mechanical kWh. Plus, electric motors and batteries cost less than those microturbines. And the motors are comparable in specific power, even. So the ingredients are there for new modes of transport enabled by MUCH cheaper and more abundant mechanical energy. Which we are, in fact, seeing in the form of Urban Air Mobility vehicles. But it may take quite a while for all these things to make it through society. The 21st Century is the century of the lithium battery like the 20th Century was the century of the internal combustion engine. Brushless motors with high energy rare earth magnets are a big part of this new energy revolution. 200 years after Faraday invented the first electric motor.
- visarga 5y ago
  > You can see flying cars through the lens of 2021 and find that they don't make sense but we got autonomous flying drones instead and almost self driving cars
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

martythemaniak 5y ago

Well, our species doesn't really make decisions. Individual and collections of individuals make choices that somehow end up accomplishing things. That there is anything at all is actually quite amazing. To take an optimistic view, the next few years will see flying minivans (Lillium etc) and people going on vacation in a space hotel in Low Earth Orbit. The future seems to be coming right along at its own pace.

billti 5y ago

> I really wonder what kind of advances we'll see in 200 more years and what kind of society they will enable. I _really_ hope I’m wrong, but I honesty think it’s probably a 50/50 chance we’ll make it that far. Besides what we’re doing to the planet and the lack of action we seem to be able to muster for that, our ability to create carnage (WMDs if you will) and them gradually falling into more hands seems high risk. (And what if something deadlier than Covid WAS developed in a lab and got into the wild?). Again, I hope our ingenuity pulls us through. But the damage a few lunatics with a lot of resources could affect 200 years ago was pretty limited. Now some hacker in Moscow can knock out energy pipelines on the East Coast of the U.S.

kleiba 5y ago

To me, I always feel that the sci-fi authors of that era believed in progress being fueled by noble causes, i.e., improving mankind. In reality, it is rather driven by commercial interest and while this has undoubtedly lead to amazing inventions across many fields, it can at the same time be a limiting factor. But I think this fact is more or less inevitable given how our society and economy are structured.

saalweachter 5y ago
I'd say 65% "commercial interest", 20% "improving mankind", 10% "I wonder what happens", and 5% "I'LL SHOW THEM ALL".