4 ms·

> Remember - long term, literally everyone is going to get covid. That is the only possible future. Very much not true. Literally many people will die if they

by Jedd 5y ago

> Remember - long term, literally everyone is going to get covid. That is the only possible future. Very much not true. Literally many people will die if they get COVID (f.e. the extremely young, or the many people that are immuno-compromised) so there's lots of other people that are keen to get populations as widely vaccinated as possible, to reduce the effective R0 as much as possible, to make sure they don't die.

nradov 5y ago
Your claim isn't scientifically accurate. I encourage everyone to get vaccinated if they can, however there is no evidence that this will produce a significant herd immunity effect or drive R0 below 1. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu... Fortunately the extremely young are at very low risk of death. https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2021-new-research-highlights-risks-of-separating-newborns-from-mothers-during-covid-19-pandemic https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2021-new-research-highli...
- Jedd 5y ago
  The claims in that article are a bit tenuous - such as 'we have no way to control the spread of delta', when in fact we do - isolation, quarantine, reduced travel, contact tracing, masks, social distancing, vaccination, etc. A year ago we didn't have a vaccine, and now more than half the population of most western nations are vaccinated. The idea that we have no alternative but to 'surrender to delta' because it's inevitable that 'literally everyone will get it' is depressingly pessimistic. We can apply the above remedies, while developing and distributing booster shots that cover delta. Similar applies to various other VOI/VOC's on (or not yet on) the radar.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Apparently you didn't actually read the linked article, or watch the original video on which it's based. Prof. Pollard never suggested surrendering. We should try to vaccinate as many people as possible. But other interventions like isolation, quarantine, reduced travel, masks, and social distancing are obviously not sustainable indefinitely. Most regular people in free societies won't tolerate them. So we'll have to eventually just accept the risks and move forward.
    - Jedd 5y ago
      Thanks for the assumption, despite me reading the linked article (I preferred the Guardian's take on the issue, from the same day[0]). I did not watch the video on which it's based, of course, as time is finite. GP (and to an extent, Prof Pollard) are asserting these things based on a number of assumptions -- pessimism (perhaps justified) about the callous thoughtlessness of many ersatz citizens, the current set of vaccines are all we shall have available into the future, delivery mechanisms will continue to require injections (slow, difficult, discourages some non-trivial subset of the population), and will continue to not be available to younger children. If all those were true, then perhaps. Happily, not all those are true. Anyway, I was railing against the claim that 'literally everyone is going to get COVID' as an unavoidable future. I shall continue to rail. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-...
grecy 5y ago
> Very much not true. How on earth can we get out of lockdowns and get back to living our lives, unless we fully expect everyone to catch covid? We've already proven time and time and time again you can't eradicate it with lockdowns (see Australia & NZ right now), so it will always be around. And we know vaccinated people can still pass it on to others.... so eventually everyone is going to have to have it if they want to interact with others. I genuinely don't understand how life can go on any other way
- Jedd 5y ago
  > How on earth can we get out of lockdowns and get back to living our lives, unless we fully expect everyone to catch covid? You're painting two extremes and asserting one's not possible, and thereby concluding the other is ineluctable. We've proven we can eliminate it (witness NZ and large parts of Australia), and assuming a policy of full vaccination and arrival / subsequent swab tests for visitors, it's quite feasible that once we've got most people in Australia vaccinated, propagation pathways can be well tracked, and propagation rates can be kept very low.
  - grecy 5y ago
    I'm in Australia right now, and they very much have NOT gotten rid of it. Delta has proven impossible to eradicate, and in fact the leaders of both NSW and Vic (where the two outbreaks are) have given up and said that Covid 0 is no longer possible. More than half the country is in severe lockdown, unable to go more than 5 km from their home. NZ too are in the middle of another outbreak and using severe lockdowns isn't making it go away. And even still, if Australia somehow did manage to keep a lid on it - anyone that wants to leave the country is surely going to go to a place that has much higher rates, and they'll likely get it. Then they want to come back into Australia - will there be the mandatory 2 week quarantine forever? (I paid $3k a few months ago). It's simply not a viable long term future.
    - Jedd 5y ago
      You're speaking about the current outbreaks - we don't yet know if we will / could eradicate it this time around. Certainly previously we've gotten down to zero, across every state, when there was more political will to do so. Currently the political will isn't there - had NSW implemented the same measures we have now, back when the first outbreaks were being detected, we'd have been sorted a month ago. Take your pick from vanilla incompetence, hubris, insouciance, or any of the various commercial or political intrigues to explain this torpid initial response that has brought us to where we are. > NZ too are in the middle of another outbreak and using severe lockdowns isn't making it go away. I see they've had 25 new cases today. Is this 'out of control'? It feels a long way from 'everyone is going to have to get COVID, there's no other way'. As to your last question, yes, it's quite palatable for me that anyone who leaves the country and returns would submit to a test on arrival, quarantine at home for 2 weeks with subsequent tests at 7 and 14d.

by Jedd 5y ago

nradov 5y ago

Your claim isn't scientifically accurate. I encourage everyone to get vaccinated if they can, however there is no evidence that this will produce a significant herd immunity effect or drive R0 below 1. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu... Fortunately the extremely young are at very low risk of death. https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2021-new-research-highlights-risks-of-separating-newborns-from-mothers-during-covid-19-pandemic https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2021-new-research-highli...

Jedd 5y ago
The claims in that article are a bit tenuous - such as 'we have no way to control the spread of delta', when in fact we do - isolation, quarantine, reduced travel, contact tracing, masks, social distancing, vaccination, etc. A year ago we didn't have a vaccine, and now more than half the population of most western nations are vaccinated. The idea that we have no alternative but to 'surrender to delta' because it's inevitable that 'literally everyone will get it' is depressingly pessimistic. We can apply the above remedies, while developing and distributing booster shots that cover delta. Similar applies to various other VOI/VOC's on (or not yet on) the radar.
- nradov 5y ago
  Apparently you didn't actually read the linked article, or watch the original video on which it's based. Prof. Pollard never suggested surrendering. We should try to vaccinate as many people as possible. But other interventions like isolation, quarantine, reduced travel, masks, and social distancing are obviously not sustainable indefinitely. Most regular people in free societies won't tolerate them. So we'll have to eventually just accept the risks and move forward.
  - Jedd 5y ago
    Thanks for the assumption, despite me reading the linked article (I preferred the Guardian's take on the issue, from the same day[0]). I did not watch the video on which it's based, of course, as time is finite. GP (and to an extent, Prof Pollard) are asserting these things based on a number of assumptions -- pessimism (perhaps justified) about the callous thoughtlessness of many ersatz citizens, the current set of vaccines are all we shall have available into the future, delivery mechanisms will continue to require injections (slow, difficult, discourages some non-trivial subset of the population), and will continue to not be available to younger children. If all those were true, then perhaps. Happily, not all those are true. Anyway, I was railing against the claim that 'literally everyone is going to get COVID' as an unavoidable future. I shall continue to rail. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-...

grecy 5y ago

> Very much not true. How on earth can we get out of lockdowns and get back to living our lives, unless we fully expect everyone to catch covid? We've already proven time and time and time again you can't eradicate it with lockdowns (see Australia & NZ right now), so it will always be around. And we know vaccinated people can still pass it on to others.... so eventually everyone is going to have to have it if they want to interact with others. I genuinely don't understand how life can go on any other way

Jedd 5y ago
> How on earth can we get out of lockdowns and get back to living our lives, unless we fully expect everyone to catch covid? You're painting two extremes and asserting one's not possible, and thereby concluding the other is ineluctable. We've proven we can eliminate it (witness NZ and large parts of Australia), and assuming a policy of full vaccination and arrival / subsequent swab tests for visitors, it's quite feasible that once we've got most people in Australia vaccinated, propagation pathways can be well tracked, and propagation rates can be kept very low.
- grecy 5y ago
  I'm in Australia right now, and they very much have NOT gotten rid of it. Delta has proven impossible to eradicate, and in fact the leaders of both NSW and Vic (where the two outbreaks are) have given up and said that Covid 0 is no longer possible. More than half the country is in severe lockdown, unable to go more than 5 km from their home. NZ too are in the middle of another outbreak and using severe lockdowns isn't making it go away. And even still, if Australia somehow did manage to keep a lid on it - anyone that wants to leave the country is surely going to go to a place that has much higher rates, and they'll likely get it. Then they want to come back into Australia - will there be the mandatory 2 week quarantine forever? (I paid $3k a few months ago). It's simply not a viable long term future.
  - Jedd 5y ago
    You're speaking about the current outbreaks - we don't yet know if we will / could eradicate it this time around. Certainly previously we've gotten down to zero, across every state, when there was more political will to do so. Currently the political will isn't there - had NSW implemented the same measures we have now, back when the first outbreaks were being detected, we'd have been sorted a month ago. Take your pick from vanilla incompetence, hubris, insouciance, or any of the various commercial or political intrigues to explain this torpid initial response that has brought us to where we are. > NZ too are in the middle of another outbreak and using severe lockdowns isn't making it go away. I see they've had 25 new cases today. Is this 'out of control'? It feels a long way from 'everyone is going to have to get COVID, there's no other way'. As to your last question, yes, it's quite palatable for me that anyone who leaves the country and returns would submit to a test on arrival, quarantine at home for 2 weeks with subsequent tests at 7 and 14d.