5 ms·

How do you explain countries with very high vaccination rates which are having "record outbreaks"?

ploika 5y ago
Delta, in a word. It's important to note that while outbreaks are definitely happening, hospitalisations and deaths are way down compared to previous waves.
meheleventyone 5y ago
Depends on the country, for example are the conditions identical? I'd argue most aren't thanks to the Delta variant and many countries with high vaccination rates are also not locking down as hard which means there is a lot more transmission. Basically there are many confounding factors to take account of in order to understand the impact of vaccination on infection rate. For example here in Iceland (84% >12yo are fully vaccinated) we've increased restrictions but not nearly as much as we did for prior outbreaks and have substantially more tourists coming through the country. But at the same times as we've had many more infections we've had considerably fewer hospitalisations. Right now we're having kids go back to school and that's causing a spike in unvaccinated infections. The problem with looking just at headline numbers is you miss all the context.
grecy 5y ago
Because vaccinated people still get covid. In a highly vaccinated population going forward, the number of cases is utterly irrelevant. The only thing that actually matter is the number of hospitalizations and deaths. Remember - long term, literally everyone is going to get covid. That is the only possible future. The goal is hopefully to have everyone double vaccinated before they catch it so their symptoms are mild when they do.
- tejohnso 5y ago
  > Remember - long term, literally everyone is going to get covid Should we stop bullying others to get vaccinated then?
  - acdha 5y ago
    It’s not bullying to expect people to reduce their negative impacts on everyone else anymore than it’s bullying to have you wash hands before preparing food or use the toilet rather than unloading wherever you are. Vaccination is a cheap, safe, and effective way to let humans exist safely in close proximity.
    - tejohnso 5y ago
      If everyone is getting covid, including person A, how does person B being vaccinated reduce negative impact on person A?
      - acdha 5y ago
        People who are vaccinated spread less, reducing the total viral load. This is a big deal for people who cannot be vaccinated or who are immune compromised since the odds of exposure and total load are what determine whether they can safely function in society. Similarly, people who are vaccinated are far, far less likely to require medical care. That reduces the load on the medical system — think about all of the complications we're seeing now because people with non-COVID problems are unable to get attention promptly — and a significant percentage of the money for treating more serious COVID cases will be paid by people other than the patients through some combination of taxes, insurance, and overhead costs (e.g. American ERs aren't allowed to refuse care since Reagan socialized them which means those expenses are added to everyone else's bill).
        nradov 5y ago
        The Delta variant is so contagious that everyone will eventually be exposed regardless of what we do. There will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect people who cannot be vaccinated or who are immune compromised. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu... Vaccinated people who get infected are probably contagious for a shorter period. However that only marginally reduces the risk of contagion for any individual interaction. Over an extended period of time everyone will be exposed. Think of it like a soccer goalie defending against an endless series of penalty kicks. He might block the first few but eventually a ball will get through.
- NDizzle 5y ago
  I've already had covid, yet people still want me to get vaccinated. I'm not going to. I'll stick with natural immunity, thanks.
  - bserge 5y ago
    Afaik having immunity and getting the vaccine you'd have even lower chances of any side effects. It'll just renew the antibodies in your system.
    - nradov 5y ago
      There is more to immunity than antibodies. For long term immunity, memory cells are more important than antibody levels. Natural immunity acquired by recovering from an infection provides more effective protection than vaccination. https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-on... For patients who were previously infected, vaccination cuts the risk of reinfection in half. However it's unclear how long that additional protection lasts. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm
- Jedd 5y ago
  > Remember - long term, literally everyone is going to get covid. That is the only possible future. Very much not true. Literally many people will die if they get COVID (f.e. the extremely young, or the many people that are immuno-compromised) so there's lots of other people that are keen to get populations as widely vaccinated as possible, to reduce the effective R0 as much as possible, to make sure they don't die.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Your claim isn't scientifically accurate. I encourage everyone to get vaccinated if they can, however there is no evidence that this will produce a significant herd immunity effect or drive R0 below 1. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu... Fortunately the extremely young are at very low risk of death. https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2021-new-research-highlights-risks-of-separating-newborns-from-mothers-during-covid-19-pandemic https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2021-new-research-highli...
    - Jedd 5y ago
      The claims in that article are a bit tenuous - such as 'we have no way to control the spread of delta', when in fact we do - isolation, quarantine, reduced travel, contact tracing, masks, social distancing, vaccination, etc. A year ago we didn't have a vaccine, and now more than half the population of most western nations are vaccinated. The idea that we have no alternative but to 'surrender to delta' because it's inevitable that 'literally everyone will get it' is depressingly pessimistic. We can apply the above remedies, while developing and distributing booster shots that cover delta. Similar applies to various other VOI/VOC's on (or not yet on) the radar.
      - nradov 5y ago
        Apparently you didn't actually read the linked article, or watch the original video on which it's based. Prof. Pollard never suggested surrendering. We should try to vaccinate as many people as possible. But other interventions like isolation, quarantine, reduced travel, masks, and social distancing are obviously not sustainable indefinitely. Most regular people in free societies won't tolerate them. So we'll have to eventually just accept the risks and move forward.
moksly 5y ago
Which countries are these? I live in Denmark. We’re on 600-800 new cases a day and were around 72% vaccinated. It’s fairly easy to explain why we have 600-800 a day even though it’s not “record outbreaks”. Part of it is the 72% and who the 20% something that can still get vaccinated are (children), part of it is delta being capable of infecting vaccinated people as well as people who have already had covid, but the biggest reason is that we’ve opened society again with no restrictions. We are capable of doing this because of the 72%, because even though we have 600-800 new cases a day, which while it’s not record numbers is still significantly higher than what we had when we first locked down, almost nobody ends up with severe cases. Which means our hospitals are empty by comparison to the first lockdown. You can argue about the morality of opening society with just 72% instead of waiting until we’re near 90% but that’s a different discussion.
- nradov 5y ago
  The country would probably be Israel. A lot of vaccinated people are getting infected. But it's not a real problem because few of them die. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/30/israel-doubles-down-on-covid-booster-shots-as-breakthrough-cases-rise.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/30/israel-doubles-down-on-covid... The virus is going to be around forever. There's no need for restrictions, we just need to accept the risk and move on.

Delta, in a word. It's important to note that while outbreaks are definitely happening, hospitalisations and deaths are way down compared to previous waves.

meheleventyone 5y ago

Depends on the country, for example are the conditions identical? I'd argue most aren't thanks to the Delta variant and many countries with high vaccination rates are also not locking down as hard which means there is a lot more transmission. Basically there are many confounding factors to take account of in order to understand the impact of vaccination on infection rate. For example here in Iceland (84% >12yo are fully vaccinated) we've increased restrictions but not nearly as much as we did for prior outbreaks and have substantially more tourists coming through the country. But at the same times as we've had many more infections we've had considerably fewer hospitalisations. Right now we're having kids go back to school and that's causing a spike in unvaccinated infections. The problem with looking just at headline numbers is you miss all the context.

grecy 5y ago

Because vaccinated people still get covid. In a highly vaccinated population going forward, the number of cases is utterly irrelevant. The only thing that actually matter is the number of hospitalizations and deaths. Remember - long term, literally everyone is going to get covid. That is the only possible future. The goal is hopefully to have everyone double vaccinated before they catch it so their symptoms are mild when they do.

tejohnso 5y ago
> Remember - long term, literally everyone is going to get covid Should we stop bullying others to get vaccinated then?
- acdha 5y ago
  It’s not bullying to expect people to reduce their negative impacts on everyone else anymore than it’s bullying to have you wash hands before preparing food or use the toilet rather than unloading wherever you are. Vaccination is a cheap, safe, and effective way to let humans exist safely in close proximity.
  - tejohnso 5y ago
    If everyone is getting covid, including person A, how does person B being vaccinated reduce negative impact on person A?
    - acdha 5y ago
      People who are vaccinated spread less, reducing the total viral load. This is a big deal for people who cannot be vaccinated or who are immune compromised since the odds of exposure and total load are what determine whether they can safely function in society. Similarly, people who are vaccinated are far, far less likely to require medical care. That reduces the load on the medical system — think about all of the complications we're seeing now because people with non-COVID problems are unable to get attention promptly — and a significant percentage of the money for treating more serious COVID cases will be paid by people other than the patients through some combination of taxes, insurance, and overhead costs (e.g. American ERs aren't allowed to refuse care since Reagan socialized them which means those expenses are added to everyone else's bill).
      - nradov 5y ago
        The Delta variant is so contagious that everyone will eventually be exposed regardless of what we do. There will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect people who cannot be vaccinated or who are immune compromised. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu... Vaccinated people who get infected are probably contagious for a shorter period. However that only marginally reduces the risk of contagion for any individual interaction. Over an extended period of time everyone will be exposed. Think of it like a soccer goalie defending against an endless series of penalty kicks. He might block the first few but eventually a ball will get through.
NDizzle 5y ago
I've already had covid, yet people still want me to get vaccinated. I'm not going to. I'll stick with natural immunity, thanks.
- bserge 5y ago
  Afaik having immunity and getting the vaccine you'd have even lower chances of any side effects. It'll just renew the antibodies in your system.
  - nradov 5y ago
    There is more to immunity than antibodies. For long term immunity, memory cells are more important than antibody levels. Natural immunity acquired by recovering from an infection provides more effective protection than vaccination. https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-on... For patients who were previously infected, vaccination cuts the risk of reinfection in half. However it's unclear how long that additional protection lasts. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm
Jedd 5y ago
> Remember - long term, literally everyone is going to get covid. That is the only possible future. Very much not true. Literally many people will die if they get COVID (f.e. the extremely young, or the many people that are immuno-compromised) so there's lots of other people that are keen to get populations as widely vaccinated as possible, to reduce the effective R0 as much as possible, to make sure they don't die.
- nradov 5y ago
  Your claim isn't scientifically accurate. I encourage everyone to get vaccinated if they can, however there is no evidence that this will produce a significant herd immunity effect or drive R0 below 1. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu... Fortunately the extremely young are at very low risk of death. https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2021-new-research-highlights-risks-of-separating-newborns-from-mothers-during-covid-19-pandemic https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2021-new-research-highli...
  - Jedd 5y ago
    The claims in that article are a bit tenuous - such as 'we have no way to control the spread of delta', when in fact we do - isolation, quarantine, reduced travel, contact tracing, masks, social distancing, vaccination, etc. A year ago we didn't have a vaccine, and now more than half the population of most western nations are vaccinated. The idea that we have no alternative but to 'surrender to delta' because it's inevitable that 'literally everyone will get it' is depressingly pessimistic. We can apply the above remedies, while developing and distributing booster shots that cover delta. Similar applies to various other VOI/VOC's on (or not yet on) the radar.
    - nradov 5y ago
      Apparently you didn't actually read the linked article, or watch the original video on which it's based. Prof. Pollard never suggested surrendering. We should try to vaccinate as many people as possible. But other interventions like isolation, quarantine, reduced travel, masks, and social distancing are obviously not sustainable indefinitely. Most regular people in free societies won't tolerate them. So we'll have to eventually just accept the risks and move forward.

moksly 5y ago

Which countries are these? I live in Denmark. We’re on 600-800 new cases a day and were around 72% vaccinated. It’s fairly easy to explain why we have 600-800 a day even though it’s not “record outbreaks”. Part of it is the 72% and who the 20% something that can still get vaccinated are (children), part of it is delta being capable of infecting vaccinated people as well as people who have already had covid, but the biggest reason is that we’ve opened society again with no restrictions. We are capable of doing this because of the 72%, because even though we have 600-800 new cases a day, which while it’s not record numbers is still significantly higher than what we had when we first locked down, almost nobody ends up with severe cases. Which means our hospitals are empty by comparison to the first lockdown. You can argue about the morality of opening society with just 72% instead of waiting until we’re near 90% but that’s a different discussion.

nradov 5y ago
The country would probably be Israel. A lot of vaccinated people are getting infected. But it's not a real problem because few of them die. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/30/israel-doubles-down-on-covid-booster-shots-as-breakthrough-cases-rise.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/30/israel-doubles-down-on-covid... The virus is going to be around forever. There's no need for restrictions, we just need to accept the risk and move on.