5 ms·

If you’re in a northern country with a pronounced summer and a winter flu season, I’d wait a bit before celebrating. Europe and Canada celebrated victory in sum

by graeme 5y ago

If you’re in a northern country with a pronounced summer and a winter flu season, I’d wait a bit before celebrating. Europe and Canada celebrated victory in summer 2020 compared to the US. Then it all soured. Every stats in those countries now celebrating is worse than it was early sept 2020. Deaths, hospitalizations, ICU….all worse. It’s not just cases. Respiratory viruses get worse in winter. The hope is this one won’t, or that herd immunity is finally reached, despite a higher case load than last year.

scrollaway 5y ago
> Every stats in those countries now celebrating is worse than it was early sept 2020. Well, no, we have 70-85 percent fully vaccinated population in Europe, and a lot of the remaining 25 percent most likely has antibodies. This isn't the same as last year. Experts here in Belgium argue that we should be lifting restrictions ASAP so that the infections are flattened out and don't all happen during winter.
- graeme 5y ago
  Belgium, compared to sept 2nd 2020: Cases: 5x Deaths: 2x Hospitalizations: 2.5x ICU: 2.5x Tiny compared to winter? Yes. But this is a seasonal respiratory virus and this season is worse than last year same time. Now, the theory is you can go back to normal, massively increase viral doses in the air, and not see a rise through winter. Because of immunity. But, breakthroughs seem to happen more easily at high viral doses. The other thing is, antibodies wane. Israel had to do boosters, they found greater susceptibility the further people got from their vax date. Boosters have reversed severe disease trends for now, and is optimistic. But they also have restrictions. I don’t know which way the future goes. My point is just that it is terribly premature to declare victory over a respiratory virus in summer. Europe made exactly the same mistake last year. You won’t know till winter. The other thing people forget is that efficacy is a relative measure, but hospitalizations are absolute. Ok, so, 95% efficacy in reducing hospitalizations compared to unvaccinated. Great! I got the vaccines myself, but that is a great result. So, on absolute terms, you have 20x less risk of hospitalization from the wild type variant at case levels at a given point. But….Delta is associated with a 2x increase in hosp risk compared to wild type. Oops ok so we have only a 10x absolute reduction in hospitalization risk. And cases are 5x higher than this time last year. Oops, ok, compared to sept 2nd 2020 a vaccinated Belgian has only a 2x absolute reduced risk of hospitalization compared to same time last year. (An unvaccinated Belgian with no prior infection has a 10x higher risk, efficacy vs severe disease still 95%) If cases go high enough you still see severe disease, even with vaccines. Maybe impossible for cases to hit 100,000 a day in Belgium, 5x winter peak. But Israel already 60% higher than winter peak, in summer, with boosters, and restrictions. So what happens without restrictions, in winter? (I’m assuming Belgium will get boosters)
- mgraupner 5y ago
  I wonder where these numbers come from. The three largest countries (Germany, France and Italy) by population have vaccination rates of a little more than 60%, Poland (5th place) has 50% fully vaccinated. How on earth does this accumulate to 70% or even 85%?
  - graeme 5y ago
    Belgium is at 71%. But probably they are looking at percent of eligible population vaccinated, meaning 12+. Common mistake, especially as govts emphasize that stat. The herd immunity threshold is said to be at 90% of all people, including children.
    - nradov 5y ago
      The herd immunity threshold for the Delta variant is so high as to be effectively meaningless. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
      - graeme 5y ago
        That’s very possible. UK was 94% for adults back in July and they’re rising again. Children weren’t include but I figure they’re over 90% with antibodies now.
    - scrollaway 5y ago
      You're right, i was talking about eligible population, i should be more careful with my wording. Still though, I disagree that "all stats are worse than last year". Hospitalizations are near exclusively among the unvaccinated. If we didn't have a vaccine, our hospital system would have collapsed, whereas right now we have little to no restrictions, just masks in public transit and shopping centers.
graeme 5y ago
For those downvoting this: 1. Pick a country in Europe you think is doing well 2. Check the stats for sept 3 2021 and sept 3 2020. The hospitalization, ICU and death stats. For death use the 7 day average Guarantee the stats are worse. Also any normal respiratory virus gets worse when some ends. Maybe it will work out well. But Europe had the same hubris last summer.

by graeme 5y ago

scrollaway 5y ago

> Every stats in those countries now celebrating is worse than it was early sept 2020. Well, no, we have 70-85 percent fully vaccinated population in Europe, and a lot of the remaining 25 percent most likely has antibodies. This isn't the same as last year. Experts here in Belgium argue that we should be lifting restrictions ASAP so that the infections are flattened out and don't all happen during winter.

graeme 5y ago
Belgium, compared to sept 2nd 2020: Cases: 5x Deaths: 2x Hospitalizations: 2.5x ICU: 2.5x Tiny compared to winter? Yes. But this is a seasonal respiratory virus and this season is worse than last year same time. Now, the theory is you can go back to normal, massively increase viral doses in the air, and not see a rise through winter. Because of immunity. But, breakthroughs seem to happen more easily at high viral doses. The other thing is, antibodies wane. Israel had to do boosters, they found greater susceptibility the further people got from their vax date. Boosters have reversed severe disease trends for now, and is optimistic. But they also have restrictions. I don’t know which way the future goes. My point is just that it is terribly premature to declare victory over a respiratory virus in summer. Europe made exactly the same mistake last year. You won’t know till winter. The other thing people forget is that efficacy is a relative measure, but hospitalizations are absolute. Ok, so, 95% efficacy in reducing hospitalizations compared to unvaccinated. Great! I got the vaccines myself, but that is a great result. So, on absolute terms, you have 20x less risk of hospitalization from the wild type variant at case levels at a given point. But….Delta is associated with a 2x increase in hosp risk compared to wild type. Oops ok so we have only a 10x absolute reduction in hospitalization risk. And cases are 5x higher than this time last year. Oops, ok, compared to sept 2nd 2020 a vaccinated Belgian has only a 2x absolute reduced risk of hospitalization compared to same time last year. (An unvaccinated Belgian with no prior infection has a 10x higher risk, efficacy vs severe disease still 95%) If cases go high enough you still see severe disease, even with vaccines. Maybe impossible for cases to hit 100,000 a day in Belgium, 5x winter peak. But Israel already 60% higher than winter peak, in summer, with boosters, and restrictions. So what happens without restrictions, in winter? (I’m assuming Belgium will get boosters)
mgraupner 5y ago
I wonder where these numbers come from. The three largest countries (Germany, France and Italy) by population have vaccination rates of a little more than 60%, Poland (5th place) has 50% fully vaccinated. How on earth does this accumulate to 70% or even 85%?
- graeme 5y ago
  Belgium is at 71%. But probably they are looking at percent of eligible population vaccinated, meaning 12+. Common mistake, especially as govts emphasize that stat. The herd immunity threshold is said to be at 90% of all people, including children.
  - nradov 5y ago
    The herd immunity threshold for the Delta variant is so high as to be effectively meaningless. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
    - graeme 5y ago
      That’s very possible. UK was 94% for adults back in July and they’re rising again. Children weren’t include but I figure they’re over 90% with antibodies now.
  - scrollaway 5y ago
    You're right, i was talking about eligible population, i should be more careful with my wording. Still though, I disagree that "all stats are worse than last year". Hospitalizations are near exclusively among the unvaccinated. If we didn't have a vaccine, our hospital system would have collapsed, whereas right now we have little to no restrictions, just masks in public transit and shopping centers.

graeme 5y ago

For those downvoting this: 1. Pick a country in Europe you think is doing well 2. Check the stats for sept 3 2021 and sept 3 2020. The hospitalization, ICU and death stats. For death use the 7 day average Guarantee the stats are worse. Also any normal respiratory virus gets worse when some ends. Maybe it will work out well. But Europe had the same hubris last summer.