5 ms·

> Provided "2022 is not mega drama." In other words, "No." We've pretty much broken the global supply chains with the pandemic, the responses to it, and every

by Syonyk 5y ago

> Provided "2022 is not mega drama." In other words, "No." We've pretty much broken the global supply chains with the pandemic, the responses to it, and everything else as the wheels of our global industrial civilization start grinding to a halt. Even the "big boys" are struggling - Toyota has cut production roughly in half because they can't get chips. GM just announced they are shutting down most of their North American plants for two weeks because... they can't get chips. Supply chains are broken. Basic electronic components, basic microcontrollers, are listed many places as "We don't have any, we don't know when we'll have any, don't ask" (coded as "52 week lead time" - I assume that's the maximum the system supports). You can't rely on getting stuff, and if you do get it, you can't rely on getting the same stuff in a month. This is before getting into any of the various global events that could really put a crimp on chip supplies... Just once, I'd love to see Tesla be honest. "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point."

s5300 5y ago
> "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point." Didn't they essentially just say something close to this in corporate speak? It seems quite clear that they have every intention to make them, as soon as they're quite literally able to do so from a supply chain perspective. I currently have 9 month lead times from near every contactable company in the world for some simple polyurethane products. If polyurethane production is that backed up and having to prioritize its largest customers with existing contracts... it's somehow not too hard for me to think that there might be some real trouble with materials for the roadster, especially given the fact they're trying to make something selling for roughly $250k that puts $1MM+ competitors to shame.
trenning 5y ago
> Just once, I'd love to see Tesla be honest. "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point." But Elon said it'll all blow over by May (2020). Hard to admit you're wrong when your personality is built around always being right. On a less cynical note, it's a cool car and I hope it gets built.
- _s 5y ago
  I’m not a Elon Musk fan at all, but I thought it’s well known to pretty much add a factor of 10x to whatever his timelines or estimates are? Though I would disagree with his personality built on being right - it’s built on being a futuristic visionary problem solver. Whether he’s actually solving problems, and whether they even need to be solved, that’s up for debate.
  - nfin 5y ago
    I am not a Musk fanboy either, but you probably haven’t seen the recent 3 part video “Starbase tour with Elon Musk”. He states at least once that he is wrong all the time. At other moments he says other similar things (but sometimes more related to engeneering for example: “All designs are wrong… just a matter of how wrong”). But I have to agree, before seeing that video I didn’t see him being so open to being wrong, and also not as technically involved or at least knowledgeable…
    - specialist 5y ago
      Near miss. "Step one: Make the requirements less dumb. The requirements are definitely dumb; it does not matter who gave them to you. It’s particularly dangerous when they come from an intelligent person, as you may not question them enough. Everyone’s wrong. No matter who you are, everyone is wrong some of the time. All designs are wrong, it’s just a matter of how wrong." https://mondaynote.com/what-makes-elon-musk-move-so-fast-8e7c91820923 https://mondaynote.com/what-makes-elon-musk-move-so-fast-8e7...
- traskjd 5y ago
  The irony of a developer website where everyone is pissed at somebody else's inability to do good estimates.
- ngngngng 5y ago
  > your personality is built around always being right. Amazing how effective this is. There is a C level executive at the Unicorn I work at that tweets Musk daily asking him for help or advice, of course getting no response. It's as if it's some sort of daily prayer.
nradov 5y ago
Some auto manufacturers have already removed electronic features so that they can continue building vehicles with fewer chips. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/amid-chip-shortagegm-removes-start-stop-feature-from-trucks-suvs/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/amid-chip-shortagegm-removes-st...
martythemaniak 5y ago
This is true in general, but probably not for the Roadster. This is a low-volume, likely money-losing Halo product. They only ever made ~2500 of the original roadsters, and at quarter mil a pop, probably won't have a substantially larger run for these. Main problem here is that the new Plaid has made this kinda irrelevant. The marketting pages for both the Model S and the Roadster list the same 0-60 times. They pretty much have to do that whiz-bang cold thruster magic they've talked about if they want this car to make any sense at all. I suspect, most of all, that they don't have the capacity to make this many models in parallel - Plaid X, structural battery 3 and Y, cybertruck, semi. They're just not that large of a company. Sucks for car fans, but probably better for their bottom line if they just concentrate on their current offerings.
- Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
  Yeah, Model S Plaid is likely going to cannibalize sales from the Roadster for customers like me that just want a car with a ridiculous 0-60 time because accelerating like that from stop lights is fun as hell. The only reason I don't have an S Plaid now is because the Model 3 Performance I'm driving now is already a larger feeling car than I want to drive. The Model S is a full-sized sedan, and I'd rather drive a 2-door coupe like my BRZ was. Also, being a convertible would be pretty sweet.
  - zwily 5y ago
    I drove a Plaid today. It was positively yucky. I'm still totally happy with the acceleration in my non-Ludicrous X. :)
  - Syonyk 5y ago
    > ...because accelerating like that from stop lights is fun as hell. Until your first tire replacement bill. Then it gets old, fast.
    - bradlys 5y ago
      If you have a $60k-150k+ car then it’s not a huge deal. A lot of tires have warranties too. I was getting my tires for 50% or less. (Michelin PS4S) Still had to pay for mount and balance but that’s how it goes.
asdff 5y ago
what even is the issue with manufacturing? is it labor still? You would think at this point the virus has came and went through most working class neighborhoods and a lot of people are carrying antibodies and no longer all finding themselves too ill to work at once. At least that's the case when we look at working class neighborhoods in the U.S.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  For the chip shortage, I thought it was related to water supply? But that the water shortage is passed, and now it's a matter of catching up. But that's just what I've heard, I may be misinformed.
  - Symmetry 5y ago
    There was a worry that TSMC would have to reduce production because of a drought on Taiwan but that ended up not having any effect on production at all. For consumer electronics of the sort that TSMC makes the supply crunch has that a lot of people have been cooped up inside without any vacations to spend money on and demand for GPUs, etc, is way up. For automotive chips, though, the problem is that there was a fire at the Renesas plant in Japan cutting into supply of those sorts of chips. And there were some mis-estimates of what demand would look like.
  - asdff 5y ago
    If its backlogged so much why can't they just cancel orders and refund customers? It seems like it might be worth the hit to just start from scratch and let new orders come in rather than be in this legendary bind trying to fight through the mess. Seems like this sort of thing would even be insured.
    - s5300 5y ago
      Any customer has been and is able to get a refund if they want. From reports of those have done so, money is returned within a week. I can't imagine why anyone would expect Tesla to preemptively force refunds to all. I'm sure the first 10 or so pre-orders would be pissed to lose their serial number spot for no reason.
quest88 5y ago
Is this a supply chain problem or a elon problem? https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/

by Syonyk 5y ago

s5300 5y ago

> "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point." Didn't they essentially just say something close to this in corporate speak? It seems quite clear that they have every intention to make them, as soon as they're quite literally able to do so from a supply chain perspective. I currently have 9 month lead times from near every contactable company in the world for some simple polyurethane products. If polyurethane production is that backed up and having to prioritize its largest customers with existing contracts... it's somehow not too hard for me to think that there might be some real trouble with materials for the roadster, especially given the fact they're trying to make something selling for roughly $250k that puts $1MM+ competitors to shame.

trenning 5y ago

> Just once, I'd love to see Tesla be honest. "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point." But Elon said it'll all blow over by May (2020). Hard to admit you're wrong when your personality is built around always being right. On a less cynical note, it's a cool car and I hope it gets built.

_s 5y ago
I’m not a Elon Musk fan at all, but I thought it’s well known to pretty much add a factor of 10x to whatever his timelines or estimates are? Though I would disagree with his personality built on being right - it’s built on being a futuristic visionary problem solver. Whether he’s actually solving problems, and whether they even need to be solved, that’s up for debate.
- nfin 5y ago
  I am not a Musk fanboy either, but you probably haven’t seen the recent 3 part video “Starbase tour with Elon Musk”. He states at least once that he is wrong all the time. At other moments he says other similar things (but sometimes more related to engeneering for example: “All designs are wrong… just a matter of how wrong”). But I have to agree, before seeing that video I didn’t see him being so open to being wrong, and also not as technically involved or at least knowledgeable…
  - specialist 5y ago
    Near miss. "Step one: Make the requirements less dumb. The requirements are definitely dumb; it does not matter who gave them to you. It’s particularly dangerous when they come from an intelligent person, as you may not question them enough. Everyone’s wrong. No matter who you are, everyone is wrong some of the time. All designs are wrong, it’s just a matter of how wrong." https://mondaynote.com/what-makes-elon-musk-move-so-fast-8e7c91820923 https://mondaynote.com/what-makes-elon-musk-move-so-fast-8e7...
traskjd 5y ago
The irony of a developer website where everyone is pissed at somebody else's inability to do good estimates.
ngngngng 5y ago
> your personality is built around always being right. Amazing how effective this is. There is a C level executive at the Unicorn I work at that tweets Musk daily asking him for help or advice, of course getting no response. It's as if it's some sort of daily prayer.

nradov 5y ago

Some auto manufacturers have already removed electronic features so that they can continue building vehicles with fewer chips. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/amid-chip-shortagegm-removes-start-stop-feature-from-trucks-suvs/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/amid-chip-shortagegm-removes-st...

martythemaniak 5y ago

This is true in general, but probably not for the Roadster. This is a low-volume, likely money-losing Halo product. They only ever made ~2500 of the original roadsters, and at quarter mil a pop, probably won't have a substantially larger run for these. Main problem here is that the new Plaid has made this kinda irrelevant. The marketting pages for both the Model S and the Roadster list the same 0-60 times. They pretty much have to do that whiz-bang cold thruster magic they've talked about if they want this car to make any sense at all. I suspect, most of all, that they don't have the capacity to make this many models in parallel - Plaid X, structural battery 3 and Y, cybertruck, semi. They're just not that large of a company. Sucks for car fans, but probably better for their bottom line if they just concentrate on their current offerings.

Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
Yeah, Model S Plaid is likely going to cannibalize sales from the Roadster for customers like me that just want a car with a ridiculous 0-60 time because accelerating like that from stop lights is fun as hell. The only reason I don't have an S Plaid now is because the Model 3 Performance I'm driving now is already a larger feeling car than I want to drive. The Model S is a full-sized sedan, and I'd rather drive a 2-door coupe like my BRZ was. Also, being a convertible would be pretty sweet.
- zwily 5y ago
  I drove a Plaid today. It was positively yucky. I'm still totally happy with the acceleration in my non-Ludicrous X. :)
- Syonyk 5y ago
  > ...because accelerating like that from stop lights is fun as hell. Until your first tire replacement bill. Then it gets old, fast.
  - bradlys 5y ago
    If you have a $60k-150k+ car then it’s not a huge deal. A lot of tires have warranties too. I was getting my tires for 50% or less. (Michelin PS4S) Still had to pay for mount and balance but that’s how it goes.

asdff 5y ago

what even is the issue with manufacturing? is it labor still? You would think at this point the virus has came and went through most working class neighborhoods and a lot of people are carrying antibodies and no longer all finding themselves too ill to work at once. At least that's the case when we look at working class neighborhoods in the U.S.

rootusrootus 5y ago
For the chip shortage, I thought it was related to water supply? But that the water shortage is passed, and now it's a matter of catching up. But that's just what I've heard, I may be misinformed.
- Symmetry 5y ago
  There was a worry that TSMC would have to reduce production because of a drought on Taiwan but that ended up not having any effect on production at all. For consumer electronics of the sort that TSMC makes the supply crunch has that a lot of people have been cooped up inside without any vacations to spend money on and demand for GPUs, etc, is way up. For automotive chips, though, the problem is that there was a fire at the Renesas plant in Japan cutting into supply of those sorts of chips. And there were some mis-estimates of what demand would look like.
- asdff 5y ago
  If its backlogged so much why can't they just cancel orders and refund customers? It seems like it might be worth the hit to just start from scratch and let new orders come in rather than be in this legendary bind trying to fight through the mess. Seems like this sort of thing would even be insured.
  - s5300 5y ago
    Any customer has been and is able to get a refund if they want. From reports of those have done so, money is returned within a week. I can't imagine why anyone would expect Tesla to preemptively force refunds to all. I'm sure the first 10 or so pre-orders would be pissed to lose their serial number spot for no reason.

quest88 5y ago

Is this a supply chain problem or a elon problem? https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/