10 ms·

New Tesla Roadster delayed again, now shooting for 2023

58 points by nixass 5y ago

pbreit 5y ago
Did anyone ever figure out if Cybertruck is delayed to 2022 or just that orders placed now would fulfill in 2022?
- dexterdog 5y ago
  I will be impressed if they deliver any in 2022.
  - blendergeek 5y ago
    Prepare to be impressed.
  - Animats 5y ago
    Somehow, I suspect that the Ford Motor Company will be able to deliver electric trucks that work. They kind of have some experience with trucks.
    - Andys 5y ago
      The youtube teardowns of the Mach E suggest they still don't have much experience with electric.
- Animats 5y ago
  “you will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in 2022.”[1] Rivian is frantically trying to IPO for $80 billion during September. If possible, before they actually ship any trucks. Meanwhile, Ford is coming out with the electric Ford F-150. They have 70,000 pre-orders. Also, the boring but useful Ford Transit commercial van is going electric. [1] https://electrek.co/2021/08/07/tesla-confirms-cybertruck-electric-pickup-delay-2022/ https://electrek.co/2021/08/07/tesla-confirms-cybertruck-ele...
  - giantg2 5y ago
    Isn't Rivian partnered with Ford?
  - martythemaniak 5y ago
    Ford seems even more battery constrained than Tesla. Currently on track to ship 15,000 F150L units in 2022, up to 85k/year in 2024. https://www.motorbiscuit.com/ford-f-150-lightning-production-double-in-2024/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/ford-f-150-lightning-production... Rivian, Hummer, Ford and Tesla will all ship electric trucks next year, but sadly none of them in large numbers.
  - Element_ 5y ago
    I think the F150 Lightening has 130k reservations now: https://twitter.com/mrlevine/status/1433425758307770380 https://twitter.com/mrlevine/status/1433425758307770380
  - 01100011 5y ago
    I saw a Rivian driving down the 280 a few weeks ago so I think they're getting close.
  - hinkley 5y ago
    I recall in the Jobs era of Apple that a lot of people bought a lot of products that were knockoffs of Apple products with the Apple-ness toned down. People really enjoyed those products and they wouldn’t necessarily have had them if someone hadn’t gone first. I’m not comparing Elon to Steve, but I think with the possible exception of SpaceX much of what I appreciate about Elon is as a goad or a foil for other people to respond to. He’s not actually making the electric F-150, but isn’t he really? In a way?
    - alphabettsy 5y ago
      That’s one way to look at it, but the market was already headed this direction long before the Cybertruck was announced. Rivian, for example, purchased their factory in like 2017 and it’s very likely that the F150 Lightning was in the works in earnest before that Cybertruck was sketched on a napkin since Ford was talking about and teasing working prototypes of the electric F150 before the Cybertruck was announced. What Musk is great at, above his other talents, is being a great marketer IMO.
Syonyk 5y ago
> Provided "2022 is not mega drama." In other words, "No." We've pretty much broken the global supply chains with the pandemic, the responses to it, and everything else as the wheels of our global industrial civilization start grinding to a halt. Even the "big boys" are struggling - Toyota has cut production roughly in half because they can't get chips. GM just announced they are shutting down most of their North American plants for two weeks because... they can't get chips. Supply chains are broken. Basic electronic components, basic microcontrollers, are listed many places as "We don't have any, we don't know when we'll have any, don't ask" (coded as "52 week lead time" - I assume that's the maximum the system supports). You can't rely on getting stuff, and if you do get it, you can't rely on getting the same stuff in a month. This is before getting into any of the various global events that could really put a crimp on chip supplies... Just once, I'd love to see Tesla be honest. "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point."
- s5300 5y ago
  > "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point." Didn't they essentially just say something close to this in corporate speak? It seems quite clear that they have every intention to make them, as soon as they're quite literally able to do so from a supply chain perspective. I currently have 9 month lead times from near every contactable company in the world for some simple polyurethane products. If polyurethane production is that backed up and having to prioritize its largest customers with existing contracts... it's somehow not too hard for me to think that there might be some real trouble with materials for the roadster, especially given the fact they're trying to make something selling for roughly $250k that puts $1MM+ competitors to shame.
- trenning 5y ago
  > Just once, I'd love to see Tesla be honest. "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point." But Elon said it'll all blow over by May (2020). Hard to admit you're wrong when your personality is built around always being right. On a less cynical note, it's a cool car and I hope it gets built.
  - 5y ago
coldtea 5y ago
Still waiting for SpaceX to go to Mars?
adamkittelson 5y ago
I did some quick googling and reservations for a signature 2020 roadster were able to be placed as of November 2017 for $50,000. At that time Tesla's stock price was around $60. (I'm assuming that price is adjusted for the stock split that occurred, correct me if I'm wrong.) As of right now the stock is about $730. Had one purchased Tesla stock instead of reserving a roadster in 2017 it would now be valued at around $600k which is enough to buy 2 roadsters and change at $250k each. Who knows where it will be in 2023. If I recall correctly reserving a signature Model X was a similarly terrible investment vs buying the stock.
- bitexploder 5y ago
  Reservations were novel early on, but now I just don’t think they make any sense.
  - duped 5y ago
    Reservations and preorders are just interest free loans
    - giantg2 5y ago
      And provide a more accurate minimum production estimate since people are actually putting down money to commit.
    - BHSPitMonkey 5y ago
      The "interest" is the value added by being in a queue so that you can get $THING sooner than if you didn't reserve a spot. Whether the value of the $THING (and having it earlier) actually justifies the opportunity cost of the deposit simply depends on the cost/thing/schedule and the buyer's wishes.
- 3pt14159 5y ago
  I've done the same type of math over buying Apple gear and working for income vs buying Apple stock and just hanging out in Thailand or Chile teaching English on the weekends. Predicting the future is hard. Tesla almost went bankrupt multiple times. It's ok to have a car instead of a retirement.
browningstreet 5y ago
I remember buying a car in 2000 in Europe -- walk into small dealership with almost no cars, place order, wait a good bit of time for it to arrive. I thought, "Sure do like that American way of buying a vehicle that's already on the lot." And here I sit with reservations for an electric F-150 and a Tesla vehicle, and it's hard to know when either will actually be available for delivery.
- hinkley 5y ago
  You know back in the Reagan era I recall the grownups lambasting the communists because if you wanted a car you had to go on a waitlist. A waitlist! Can you imagine the indignity of a waitlist?
  - Andys 5y ago
    I needed a new vehicle earlier in the year, and the forums suggested I'd be waiting several months. Instead, I used a commercial broker. Didn't get to choose the colour, but one arrived (to my doorstep) in 2 weeks. So it seems just like in communist times there are waitlists for some and not others?
- colordrops 5y ago
  The F-150's range is not great - how do you plan to use the vehicle?
  - browningstreet 5y ago
    What makes you say that? The stated ranges for the trucks include towing a load. Without the load, the range increases quite a bit. I'll mostly use it for family adventuring -- weekend skiing, camping, cycling.
giantg2 5y ago
I'd love to see them do a small, striped down, cheap car for AutoX and track nights. I guess battery costs are the real issue.
fluxem 5y ago
Not surprising. I'm still waiting for Tesla Semi, which was supposed to be released in 2019. But two years later, the production hasn't started. But hey, we got Tesla Bot.
Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
If Elon says they're shooting for 2023, then 2025 is more likely. Which will be perfect as that'll be about the time I'll have the money for one.
Traster 5y ago
It's honestly insane when you lay it out, the Tesla Roadster (1st gen) was produced 2008-2012, it took them until 2017 to even announce a successor, aiming to deliver in 2020. Now the deliver date is 2023 assuming that 2022 isn't a mega drama (yeah I'm sure that'll age well). And how does this come to us? Fucking twitter. Elon Musk's companies have often produced good things, but I find it fascinating that a man who wants to be great, can't even be half-decent.
cma 5y ago
It is supposed to be able to fly too.
m0zg 5y ago
Hey Tesla folks, if you're reading this, when's that "full self driving" coming along for real? Or will it always be "later this year"? I'm baffled there's no class action lawsuit by now, especially by people who forked over $10K for a feature that doesn't exist.
- hinkley 5y ago
  Don’t listen to this person. Take all the time you need. The impatience of a few loud, litigious people is no counterbalance to public safety except where lunatics are concerned.
  - m0zg 5y ago
    "This person" is a deep learning researcher who knows they aren't going to be able to do it with cameras alone. I want them to learn some humility and refund $10K to people, not deliver it per se. I myself didn't pay for "FSD" on my Tesla, of course.
    - xedeon 5y ago
      Do you mind sharing some of your "Deep Learning Research" work? "Sebastian Thrun. He told me the whole industry is about to reboot. And then I saw why he said that. He literally invented the modern autonomous car field. He started Google’s autonomous team and told me he made a mistake going with LiDAR." https://twitter.com/Scobleizer/status/1433495119966048263 https://twitter.com/Scobleizer/status/1433495119966048263
      - m0zg 5y ago
        > Do you mind sharing some of your "Deep Learning Research" work? To what end? I value my anonymity here. I wish there was a way to anonymously bet money on these outcomes. I'd bet you $10K (the cost of the thing) that there will be no "FSD" "later this year" like Tesla is promising. It is also baffling that people still read Scoble who knows nothing about anything.

58 points by nixass 5y ago

pbreit 5y ago

Did anyone ever figure out if Cybertruck is delayed to 2022 or just that orders placed now would fulfill in 2022?

dexterdog 5y ago
I will be impressed if they deliver any in 2022.
- blendergeek 5y ago
  Prepare to be impressed.
- Animats 5y ago
  Somehow, I suspect that the Ford Motor Company will be able to deliver electric trucks that work. They kind of have some experience with trucks.
  - Andys 5y ago
    The youtube teardowns of the Mach E suggest they still don't have much experience with electric.
Animats 5y ago
“you will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in 2022.”[1] Rivian is frantically trying to IPO for $80 billion during September. If possible, before they actually ship any trucks. Meanwhile, Ford is coming out with the electric Ford F-150. They have 70,000 pre-orders. Also, the boring but useful Ford Transit commercial van is going electric. [1] https://electrek.co/2021/08/07/tesla-confirms-cybertruck-electric-pickup-delay-2022/ https://electrek.co/2021/08/07/tesla-confirms-cybertruck-ele...
- giantg2 5y ago
  Isn't Rivian partnered with Ford?
- martythemaniak 5y ago
  Ford seems even more battery constrained than Tesla. Currently on track to ship 15,000 F150L units in 2022, up to 85k/year in 2024. https://www.motorbiscuit.com/ford-f-150-lightning-production-double-in-2024/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/ford-f-150-lightning-production... Rivian, Hummer, Ford and Tesla will all ship electric trucks next year, but sadly none of them in large numbers.
- Element_ 5y ago
  I think the F150 Lightening has 130k reservations now: https://twitter.com/mrlevine/status/1433425758307770380 https://twitter.com/mrlevine/status/1433425758307770380
- 01100011 5y ago
  I saw a Rivian driving down the 280 a few weeks ago so I think they're getting close.
- hinkley 5y ago
  I recall in the Jobs era of Apple that a lot of people bought a lot of products that were knockoffs of Apple products with the Apple-ness toned down. People really enjoyed those products and they wouldn’t necessarily have had them if someone hadn’t gone first. I’m not comparing Elon to Steve, but I think with the possible exception of SpaceX much of what I appreciate about Elon is as a goad or a foil for other people to respond to. He’s not actually making the electric F-150, but isn’t he really? In a way?
  - alphabettsy 5y ago
    That’s one way to look at it, but the market was already headed this direction long before the Cybertruck was announced. Rivian, for example, purchased their factory in like 2017 and it’s very likely that the F150 Lightning was in the works in earnest before that Cybertruck was sketched on a napkin since Ford was talking about and teasing working prototypes of the electric F150 before the Cybertruck was announced. What Musk is great at, above his other talents, is being a great marketer IMO.

Syonyk 5y ago

> Provided "2022 is not mega drama." In other words, "No." We've pretty much broken the global supply chains with the pandemic, the responses to it, and everything else as the wheels of our global industrial civilization start grinding to a halt. Even the "big boys" are struggling - Toyota has cut production roughly in half because they can't get chips. GM just announced they are shutting down most of their North American plants for two weeks because... they can't get chips. Supply chains are broken. Basic electronic components, basic microcontrollers, are listed many places as "We don't have any, we don't know when we'll have any, don't ask" (coded as "52 week lead time" - I assume that's the maximum the system supports). You can't rely on getting stuff, and if you do get it, you can't rely on getting the same stuff in a month. This is before getting into any of the various global events that could really put a crimp on chip supplies... Just once, I'd love to see Tesla be honest. "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point."

s5300 5y ago
> "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point." Didn't they essentially just say something close to this in corporate speak? It seems quite clear that they have every intention to make them, as soon as they're quite literally able to do so from a supply chain perspective. I currently have 9 month lead times from near every contactable company in the world for some simple polyurethane products. If polyurethane production is that backed up and having to prioritize its largest customers with existing contracts... it's somehow not too hard for me to think that there might be some real trouble with materials for the roadster, especially given the fact they're trying to make something selling for roughly $250k that puts $1MM+ competitors to shame.
trenning 5y ago
> Just once, I'd love to see Tesla be honest. "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point." But Elon said it'll all blow over by May (2020). Hard to admit you're wrong when your personality is built around always being right. On a less cynical note, it's a cool car and I hope it gets built.
- 5y ago

coldtea 5y ago

Still waiting for SpaceX to go to Mars?

adamkittelson 5y ago

I did some quick googling and reservations for a signature 2020 roadster were able to be placed as of November 2017 for $50,000. At that time Tesla's stock price was around $60. (I'm assuming that price is adjusted for the stock split that occurred, correct me if I'm wrong.) As of right now the stock is about $730. Had one purchased Tesla stock instead of reserving a roadster in 2017 it would now be valued at around $600k which is enough to buy 2 roadsters and change at $250k each. Who knows where it will be in 2023. If I recall correctly reserving a signature Model X was a similarly terrible investment vs buying the stock.

bitexploder 5y ago
Reservations were novel early on, but now I just don’t think they make any sense.
- duped 5y ago
  Reservations and preorders are just interest free loans
  - giantg2 5y ago
    And provide a more accurate minimum production estimate since people are actually putting down money to commit.
  - BHSPitMonkey 5y ago
    The "interest" is the value added by being in a queue so that you can get $THING sooner than if you didn't reserve a spot. Whether the value of the $THING (and having it earlier) actually justifies the opportunity cost of the deposit simply depends on the cost/thing/schedule and the buyer's wishes.
3pt14159 5y ago
I've done the same type of math over buying Apple gear and working for income vs buying Apple stock and just hanging out in Thailand or Chile teaching English on the weekends. Predicting the future is hard. Tesla almost went bankrupt multiple times. It's ok to have a car instead of a retirement.

browningstreet 5y ago

I remember buying a car in 2000 in Europe -- walk into small dealership with almost no cars, place order, wait a good bit of time for it to arrive. I thought, "Sure do like that American way of buying a vehicle that's already on the lot." And here I sit with reservations for an electric F-150 and a Tesla vehicle, and it's hard to know when either will actually be available for delivery.

hinkley 5y ago
You know back in the Reagan era I recall the grownups lambasting the communists because if you wanted a car you had to go on a waitlist. A waitlist! Can you imagine the indignity of a waitlist?
- Andys 5y ago
  I needed a new vehicle earlier in the year, and the forums suggested I'd be waiting several months. Instead, I used a commercial broker. Didn't get to choose the colour, but one arrived (to my doorstep) in 2 weeks. So it seems just like in communist times there are waitlists for some and not others?
colordrops 5y ago
The F-150's range is not great - how do you plan to use the vehicle?
- browningstreet 5y ago
  What makes you say that? The stated ranges for the trucks include towing a load. Without the load, the range increases quite a bit. I'll mostly use it for family adventuring -- weekend skiing, camping, cycling.

giantg2 5y ago

I'd love to see them do a small, striped down, cheap car for AutoX and track nights. I guess battery costs are the real issue.

fluxem 5y ago

Not surprising. I'm still waiting for Tesla Semi, which was supposed to be released in 2019. But two years later, the production hasn't started. But hey, we got Tesla Bot.

Sohcahtoa82 5y ago

If Elon says they're shooting for 2023, then 2025 is more likely. Which will be perfect as that'll be about the time I'll have the money for one.

Traster 5y ago

It's honestly insane when you lay it out, the Tesla Roadster (1st gen) was produced 2008-2012, it took them until 2017 to even announce a successor, aiming to deliver in 2020. Now the deliver date is 2023 assuming that 2022 isn't a mega drama (yeah I'm sure that'll age well). And how does this come to us? Fucking twitter. Elon Musk's companies have often produced good things, but I find it fascinating that a man who wants to be great, can't even be half-decent.

cma 5y ago

It is supposed to be able to fly too.

m0zg 5y ago

Hey Tesla folks, if you're reading this, when's that "full self driving" coming along for real? Or will it always be "later this year"? I'm baffled there's no class action lawsuit by now, especially by people who forked over $10K for a feature that doesn't exist.

hinkley 5y ago
Don’t listen to this person. Take all the time you need. The impatience of a few loud, litigious people is no counterbalance to public safety except where lunatics are concerned.
- m0zg 5y ago
  "This person" is a deep learning researcher who knows they aren't going to be able to do it with cameras alone. I want them to learn some humility and refund $10K to people, not deliver it per se. I myself didn't pay for "FSD" on my Tesla, of course.
  - xedeon 5y ago
    Do you mind sharing some of your "Deep Learning Research" work? "Sebastian Thrun. He told me the whole industry is about to reboot. And then I saw why he said that. He literally invented the modern autonomous car field. He started Google’s autonomous team and told me he made a mistake going with LiDAR." https://twitter.com/Scobleizer/status/1433495119966048263 https://twitter.com/Scobleizer/status/1433495119966048263
    - m0zg 5y ago
      > Do you mind sharing some of your "Deep Learning Research" work? To what end? I value my anonymity here. I wish there was a way to anonymously bet money on these outcomes. I'd bet you $10K (the cost of the thing) that there will be no "FSD" "later this year" like Tesla is promising. It is also baffling that people still read Scoble who knows nothing about anything.