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I can't argue about what general public thought; but I think the epidemiological consensus even before we had experience with these vaccines is that vaccine eff

I can't argue about what general public thought; but I think the epidemiological consensus even before we had experience with these vaccines is that vaccine effectiveness wouldn't be 100%--based on our experience with other vaccines. Instead, we rely on population effects to do the work. If susceptibility to infection is above some point in the general population, then infections become a self-sustaining cascade through social networks (of course, the composition and structure of that network also matter--I'm simplifying). But if you can push susceptibility lower enough, the infections will not cause self-sustaining cascades. This is, btw, why I consider anti-vaxxers (in the before times) as free-loaders who relied on those around them being vaccinated to protect them.

nradov 5y ago
Anti-vaxxers won't be effectively protected long term by those around them being vaccinated. The Delta variant is sufficiently contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect. All of us can expect to get exposed eventually. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
- jonnycomputer 5y ago
  I think this is why I didn't include the covid-anti-vaxxers in that mix; they're more like covid fatalists. Absent a vaccine, covid-fatalism--the idea that you will get it eventually--is not insane. Lots of simulations show you can flatten the curve with various measures, but the area under the curve ends up being the same in the long run; or at least that's my lay person understanding of it. Not getting everyone sick at once keeps everything getting overwhelmed at once ... but long sustained restrictions have costs too. But all that logic is really thrown out the window with widespread availability of effective vaccines.

nradov 5y ago

Anti-vaxxers won't be effectively protected long term by those around them being vaccinated. The Delta variant is sufficiently contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect. All of us can expect to get exposed eventually. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

jonnycomputer 5y ago
I think this is why I didn't include the covid-anti-vaxxers in that mix; they're more like covid fatalists. Absent a vaccine, covid-fatalism--the idea that you will get it eventually--is not insane. Lots of simulations show you can flatten the curve with various measures, but the area under the curve ends up being the same in the long run; or at least that's my lay person understanding of it. Not getting everyone sick at once keeps everything getting overwhelmed at once ... but long sustained restrictions have costs too. But all that logic is really thrown out the window with widespread availability of effective vaccines.