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I was living in Shanghai in 2018 when the Chinese National People’s Congress lifted the two-term limit for Chinese presidents, effectively making Xi Jinping "di
by jaqalopes 5y ago
I was living in Shanghai in 2018 when the Chinese National People’s Congress lifted the two-term limit for Chinese presidents, effectively making Xi Jinping "dictator for life." My feeling at that time was that this is a sign not of strength, but of profound weakness. If Xi was so unconfident in his legacy that he could not find a worthy successor in the usual amount of time, what did that say about him? And about China after Xi?
In my 4.5 years in China (I left in Nov 2019) the country seemingly became more paranoid, with noticeable increases in internet censorship and street-level policing, as well as intensifying nationalist propaganda in everyday media.
We all saw what happened in Hong Kong in the past couple years. We know what has been happening in Xinjiang for longer. China is clearly at war with the "enemies within," and this article gives me an extremely similar vibe. To my mind, this all adds up to weakness, not strength. The Xi regime is trying to forestall dissent, fragmentation, and collapse. Will they succeed? Maybe. But at what cost? The brain drain on China is continuous, the capital flight steady. A "second cultural revolution" may strengthen and perpetuate the CPC's grip on the country, but it ultimately weakens China, and is hardly a threat at all to other countries.
- xtracto 5y ago> If Xi was so unconfident in his legacy that he could not find a worthy successor in the usual amount of time, what did that say about him? And about China after Xi? It got me thinking: Here we have Angela Merkel, who was German Chancellor for 16 years in a democracy and is stepping down because she wants to do something else, vs Xi Jinping who has to maneuver to remain in power.
- loukrazy 5y agoIf there is no peaceful transfer of power then you are incentivized to never give up power
- yann2 5y agoWell its a large cattle herd. So the amount of flight and drainage required to weaken it would probably require a new continent to appear out of the sea to absorb it all. Its basically unknown how much damage they can take.
- adventured 5y ago> If Xi was so unconfident in his legacy that he could not find a worthy successor in the usual amount of time, what did that say about him? It takes a long time to elaborately enshrine yourself into the history of a nation as old and massive as China. Xi - as with essentially all dictators - lies whenever he pretends it's not about him. He has persistently taken actions all along the path to glorify himself at the expense of others (including past Chinese leaders). Xi isn't interested in the sort of legacy you build in a mere two terms, that's why he was unwilling to give up power. It had nothing to do with being concerned about finding a worthy successor, that wasn't a consideration at the time (Xi had no intention to give up power at two terms, regardless of successors). I think ideally he'd like to surpass Mao in historical importance, although he'll settle for being perceived a peer. If Xi is assessing what that will take, there's little question in entails conquering Taiwan and overall it'll take decades of imprinting himself onto the nation. National cultural transformations derived from your vision of how things should be are long processes.
- ginko 5y ago>overall it'll take decades of imprinting himself onto the nation Does he even have time for that? He's 68.
- IAblEb 5y agoJiangzemin is 95 and is still alive. They received the best medical care imaginable. Xi probably has 20 good years ahead of him.
- AnimalMuppet 5y agoI admit that I am guessing, but it might be fear. Xi lived through the cultural revolution as the son of someone purged. He may be motivated by making sure that he is never able to be on the receiving end again.