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That's not a slope, but a cliff -- and they've gone over it. What has amazed me is how there are many Aussie's who agree with the rules and are happy to comply

That's not a slope, but a cliff -- and they've gone over it. What has amazed me is how there are many Aussie's who agree with the rules and are happy to comply. It's amazing.

azinman2 5y ago
And consequently their Covid numbers are very low.
- techbio 5y ago
  When a measure becomes a target...
  - edmundsauto 5y ago
    Wisdom becomes a platitude when repeated without specific comments about relevance.
    - techbio 5y ago
      It is relevant in the context of the message thread it replies to. If you do think my reply was unwise, I'd be happy to have your explanation for why you think that, but I am fairly certain that platitude is the wrong word here. Maybe you mean something like "played out", but then that would seem to be just your opinion.
      - edmundsauto 5y ago
        Why do you think this measure is a target? It is possible for a measure to become a target and still remain useful - a few catchy words that describe some situations doesn't give any indication of an analysis of the process, or even define the difference between a measure and a target, or any indication that is what's happening here. Some measures become targets, sometimes. Sometimes those become less useful; other times they are both useful and not useful in different ways. Determining when something is useful is too nuanced and multi-dimensional to reduce it to a catchy phrase.
        techbio 5y ago
        Show me it isn't? If you are simply critical of my brevity and not my message, I agree with you but am surprised that you would be less critical of the message to which I replied. If you believe there is no evidence of society conforming itself in drastic ways to attempt to control infection rates, we may be operating with different facts, but I unfortunately remain unaware of which facts yours are, and apparently you of mine. Edit: It is my position that the actions of authorities should be aligned with the preferred outcomes of the governed, and any relevant information made transparently available to the governed to be fairly evaluated. My assumption is that in the case of Australia and others, a mandate to fight a virus has become an outsized metric in the role of governing and some other leading institutions, and other issues are not being addressed that should be.
        edmundsauto 5y ago
        > Show me it isn't? Often repeated on this forum: positive assertions require the support. In this case, something like, "here is how the current situation resembles this abstraction and thus we can conclude XYZ". You seem to feel the work is done just by making a passing comment that superficially resembles the situation. Some dots that would be worth connecting: 1. What is the a priori difference between measure and target? 2. How can we tell when we have passed between the two? 3. Can a measure be a target and still be useful? 4. What if a measure is sometimes a target to some people, but sometimes purely a measure to others? Or at different times, or different locales? 5. Is there any context to expand the problem dimensionality to beyond an artificial difference of Measure/Target? There are plenty of other explanations that could be offered, and would fit the available facts. If alternative explanations could fit the same facts, it requires additional work to disprove other explanations before deciding on "the right answer" (which doesn't really exist). Or one could, ya know, acknowledge that any particular interpretation is just an opinion and not particularly insightful. Looking for alternatives and seriously considering them is a critical step for reducing bias. I will leave it as an exercise for you to work through your own biases - anything I suggest at this point would be dismissed. However, if you find yourself seeing this as either this-way, or that-way, you are probably experiencing tunnel vision and not seeing the complexity and messiness of real life situations. Regardless, a glib phrase that might apply in some ways, and doesn't apply in others, is not a particularly useful or insightful approach.
    - techbio 5y ago
      It would be fun to see who thinks running a country by using the target of infection rate is better than the (also) deeply flawed target of GDP. Either I've miscalculated or misspoken, but I don't see that my post needed any more elaboration than its final ellipses, and the silent downvotes perhaps could be better explained, but I'll just assume my post was too low effort to merit that and forget all about it.
- SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
  The whole motivation for the source article is that this tradeoff is no longer the case. Case numbers are high and rising fast, with NSW edging close to numbers in other countries, and the Australian government no longer believes it will be possible to bring them back down.
  - nl 5y ago
    > NSW edging close to numbers in other countries NSW (a state of 8.1 Million) had just over 1000 new cases today, and 12 deaths - and that is the worst day of the whole pandemic. That's... not like other countries.
    - SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
      Their historical record is much better than other countries, but the worst day being today raises some pretty serious questions about whether that record is likely to continue. In terms of a day to day comparison, France today reported 17,000 cases and 83 deaths among a population of 67 million - a bit better in terms of deaths, a solid chunk worse in terms of cases, but definitely not the wild orders-of-magnitude difference that Australian policymakers hoped to maintain.
      - nl 5y ago
        Agreed. France is 60% fully vaccinated, Australia less than 30%. There's the real problem. At that disastrously low vaccination rate it's only lockdown keeping the death rate that low. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=AUS~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
      - Andaith 5y ago
        I saw a news article that said modelling suggests cases will plateau in about a fortnight in NSW before trending down as the vaccinations start impacting the spread. We are also vaccinating like mad right now. The vaccination numbers for the UK were about 160K, and for NSW about 140K, but that's for a pop of 67mil vs 8.1mil. Our first doses for some age groups are also hitting 90%, so I'm taking that to mean there's less vaccine hesitancy here too. NSW did have it's worst day, but I reckon overall we'll be fine.
djanogo 5y ago
This. It's amazing how first world countries are loosing democracy while 3rd world countries are going back to their normal schedule. Look at the cases in India, flat lined in last few months.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Are you suggesting that the Indian numbers are in any way accurate?
  - aww_dang 5y ago
    I'm not confident in western numbers either. There's a definite conflict of interest when governments are tasked with collecting data which rationalizes their use of emergency powers.
    - edmundsauto 5y ago
      There are government-independent studies that roughly reflect similar numbers. CMU's Delphi team has an interesting survey - no media involvement needed, they offer an API.
      - water8 5y ago
        Studies are worthless if the data reporting by the source (hospitals) was inaccurate. We have strong reason to believe bias since emergency funds were allocated to places with the highest covid count
        edmundsauto 5y ago
        > emergency funds were allocated to places with the highest covid count Wouldn't this be how we would expect things to work? Places with more infections need more resources. It seems to me like the "strong reason to believe bias" is the exact same evidence as "this is how I would expect it to work in absence of bias".
    - 5y ago
donnythecroc 5y ago
I think you need to google images of where we are locked down if you want to understand why it's only a minor annoyance. In Sydney you could be locked down in mosmon, manly, Bronte, Bondi, rushcutters, watsons Bay, Diamond Bay, coogee, clovelly, Avalon, palm Beach etc etc and you would be in one of the most beautiful places in the world full of sunshine, sea and sand. Today I'll be going to the beach in Double Bay, I'll go on a coastal walk (see some whales if I'm lucky) and over the weekend I'll go out kayaking and surfing - all within our lockdown rules.
- LIV2 5y ago
  Yes if you're privileged enough to live in some of the more expensive suburbs in Sydney it's not a problem at all. Screw everyone else though right?
  - sothengo 5y ago
    9 in 10 of our population lives half an hour's drive from the coastline. Stop mistaking our country for your own. https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/previousproducts/1301.0feature%20article32004 https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/previousproducts/13...
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - TheGreatReset 5y ago
      Half an hour drive ≠ 5km lockdown restrictions. Your condescending tone is typical of Australia's managerial class, completely disconnected from the realities most locked down Australians are facing. Have a moment to ponder the existence of immigrant small business owners facing bankruptcy in Parramatta, the furloughed truckies in Blacktown, the working class kids in overcrowded government housing in Penrith.
    - makomk 5y ago
      Lockdown means that it is literally illegal to make that drive to the coastline right now, and it will continue to be for the foreseeable future. The only people who get to enjoy being in "one of the most beautiful places in the world full of sunshine, sea and sand" during lockdown are a few incredibly wealthy folks living in expensive homes in expensive regions of the country. The comment you're replying to is exactly right.

That's not a slope, but a cliff -- and they've gone over it. What has amazed me is how there are many Aussie's who agree with the rules and are happy to comply. It's amazing.

azinman2 5y ago

And consequently their Covid numbers are very low.

techbio 5y ago
When a measure becomes a target...
- edmundsauto 5y ago
  Wisdom becomes a platitude when repeated without specific comments about relevance.
  - techbio 5y ago
    It is relevant in the context of the message thread it replies to. If you do think my reply was unwise, I'd be happy to have your explanation for why you think that, but I am fairly certain that platitude is the wrong word here. Maybe you mean something like "played out", but then that would seem to be just your opinion.
    - edmundsauto 5y ago
      Why do you think this measure is a target? It is possible for a measure to become a target and still remain useful - a few catchy words that describe some situations doesn't give any indication of an analysis of the process, or even define the difference between a measure and a target, or any indication that is what's happening here. Some measures become targets, sometimes. Sometimes those become less useful; other times they are both useful and not useful in different ways. Determining when something is useful is too nuanced and multi-dimensional to reduce it to a catchy phrase.
      - techbio 5y ago
        Show me it isn't? If you are simply critical of my brevity and not my message, I agree with you but am surprised that you would be less critical of the message to which I replied. If you believe there is no evidence of society conforming itself in drastic ways to attempt to control infection rates, we may be operating with different facts, but I unfortunately remain unaware of which facts yours are, and apparently you of mine. Edit: It is my position that the actions of authorities should be aligned with the preferred outcomes of the governed, and any relevant information made transparently available to the governed to be fairly evaluated. My assumption is that in the case of Australia and others, a mandate to fight a virus has become an outsized metric in the role of governing and some other leading institutions, and other issues are not being addressed that should be.
        edmundsauto 5y ago
        > Show me it isn't? Often repeated on this forum: positive assertions require the support. In this case, something like, "here is how the current situation resembles this abstraction and thus we can conclude XYZ". You seem to feel the work is done just by making a passing comment that superficially resembles the situation. Some dots that would be worth connecting: 1. What is the a priori difference between measure and target? 2. How can we tell when we have passed between the two? 3. Can a measure be a target and still be useful? 4. What if a measure is sometimes a target to some people, but sometimes purely a measure to others? Or at different times, or different locales? 5. Is there any context to expand the problem dimensionality to beyond an artificial difference of Measure/Target? There are plenty of other explanations that could be offered, and would fit the available facts. If alternative explanations could fit the same facts, it requires additional work to disprove other explanations before deciding on "the right answer" (which doesn't really exist). Or one could, ya know, acknowledge that any particular interpretation is just an opinion and not particularly insightful. Looking for alternatives and seriously considering them is a critical step for reducing bias. I will leave it as an exercise for you to work through your own biases - anything I suggest at this point would be dismissed. However, if you find yourself seeing this as either this-way, or that-way, you are probably experiencing tunnel vision and not seeing the complexity and messiness of real life situations. Regardless, a glib phrase that might apply in some ways, and doesn't apply in others, is not a particularly useful or insightful approach.
  - techbio 5y ago
    It would be fun to see who thinks running a country by using the target of infection rate is better than the (also) deeply flawed target of GDP. Either I've miscalculated or misspoken, but I don't see that my post needed any more elaboration than its final ellipses, and the silent downvotes perhaps could be better explained, but I'll just assume my post was too low effort to merit that and forget all about it.
SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
The whole motivation for the source article is that this tradeoff is no longer the case. Case numbers are high and rising fast, with NSW edging close to numbers in other countries, and the Australian government no longer believes it will be possible to bring them back down.
- nl 5y ago
  > NSW edging close to numbers in other countries NSW (a state of 8.1 Million) had just over 1000 new cases today, and 12 deaths - and that is the worst day of the whole pandemic. That's... not like other countries.
  - SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
    Their historical record is much better than other countries, but the worst day being today raises some pretty serious questions about whether that record is likely to continue. In terms of a day to day comparison, France today reported 17,000 cases and 83 deaths among a population of 67 million - a bit better in terms of deaths, a solid chunk worse in terms of cases, but definitely not the wild orders-of-magnitude difference that Australian policymakers hoped to maintain.
    - nl 5y ago
      Agreed. France is 60% fully vaccinated, Australia less than 30%. There's the real problem. At that disastrously low vaccination rate it's only lockdown keeping the death rate that low. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=AUS~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
    - Andaith 5y ago
      I saw a news article that said modelling suggests cases will plateau in about a fortnight in NSW before trending down as the vaccinations start impacting the spread. We are also vaccinating like mad right now. The vaccination numbers for the UK were about 160K, and for NSW about 140K, but that's for a pop of 67mil vs 8.1mil. Our first doses for some age groups are also hitting 90%, so I'm taking that to mean there's less vaccine hesitancy here too. NSW did have it's worst day, but I reckon overall we'll be fine.

djanogo 5y ago

This. It's amazing how first world countries are loosing democracy while 3rd world countries are going back to their normal schedule. Look at the cases in India, flat lined in last few months.

sudosysgen 5y ago
Are you suggesting that the Indian numbers are in any way accurate?
- aww_dang 5y ago
  I'm not confident in western numbers either. There's a definite conflict of interest when governments are tasked with collecting data which rationalizes their use of emergency powers.
  - edmundsauto 5y ago
    There are government-independent studies that roughly reflect similar numbers. CMU's Delphi team has an interesting survey - no media involvement needed, they offer an API.
    - water8 5y ago
      Studies are worthless if the data reporting by the source (hospitals) was inaccurate. We have strong reason to believe bias since emergency funds were allocated to places with the highest covid count
      - edmundsauto 5y ago
        > emergency funds were allocated to places with the highest covid count Wouldn't this be how we would expect things to work? Places with more infections need more resources. It seems to me like the "strong reason to believe bias" is the exact same evidence as "this is how I would expect it to work in absence of bias".
  - 5y ago

donnythecroc 5y ago

I think you need to google images of where we are locked down if you want to understand why it's only a minor annoyance. In Sydney you could be locked down in mosmon, manly, Bronte, Bondi, rushcutters, watsons Bay, Diamond Bay, coogee, clovelly, Avalon, palm Beach etc etc and you would be in one of the most beautiful places in the world full of sunshine, sea and sand. Today I'll be going to the beach in Double Bay, I'll go on a coastal walk (see some whales if I'm lucky) and over the weekend I'll go out kayaking and surfing - all within our lockdown rules.

LIV2 5y ago
Yes if you're privileged enough to live in some of the more expensive suburbs in Sydney it's not a problem at all. Screw everyone else though right?
- sothengo 5y ago
  9 in 10 of our population lives half an hour's drive from the coastline. Stop mistaking our country for your own. https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/previousproducts/1301.0feature%20article32004 https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/previousproducts/13...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - TheGreatReset 5y ago
    Half an hour drive ≠ 5km lockdown restrictions. Your condescending tone is typical of Australia's managerial class, completely disconnected from the realities most locked down Australians are facing. Have a moment to ponder the existence of immigrant small business owners facing bankruptcy in Parramatta, the furloughed truckies in Blacktown, the working class kids in overcrowded government housing in Penrith.
  - makomk 5y ago
    Lockdown means that it is literally illegal to make that drive to the coastline right now, and it will continue to be for the foreseeable future. The only people who get to enjoy being in "one of the most beautiful places in the world full of sunshine, sea and sand" during lockdown are a few incredibly wealthy folks living in expensive homes in expensive regions of the country. The comment you're replying to is exactly right.