3 ms·
Note that this is an inverse of Gresham's Law and is behind the large increases in value of alternative stores of value (art, real estate, cryptocurrency, stock
by nostrademons 5y ago
Note that this is an inverse of Gresham's Law and is behind the large increases in value of alternative stores of value (art, real estate, cryptocurrency, stocks).
Gresham's Law is that "bad money drives out good" - when you have two forms of currency circulating within the economy and one is inflating at a faster rate than the other, people will tend to spend the inflating currency and hoard the appreciating one. The inverse of that is that they will tend to hoard the appreciating currency and spend the inflating one, i.e. as a store of value, nobody with long time preferences is going to hold cash. Instead they pile into any asset with zero cost of carry and a liquid market, which was stocks from about 1980-2010 and now also includes art, cryptocurrency, real estate, NFTs, other securities, etc.
It occurs to me that this could play tricks on how we measure interest rates. Assuming no central bank interference, interest rates are set at the equilibrium between people who want to borrow cash and those who want to lend cash. But nobody serious about future returns wants to lend cash! They've exited the cash market entirely, and only touch it when they need to convert long-term holdings to short-term holdings. Instead, they trade amongst themselves in asset markets, which have appreciated far quicker than 3% CPIs and 2% nominal interest rates would suggest. It could be that the divorce between stock market returns (10-15% in recent years) vs. interest rates (2-3% in recent years) might indicate that all of the firms with high time preferences have exited the cash market, leaving behind only those firms who need cash now.
- imtringued 5y ago> Assuming no central bank interference, interest rates are set at the equilibrium between people who want to borrow cash and those who want to lend cash. Nitpick: It's the equilibrium between people who want to have savings and those who want to have debt. When you have deflation no such mechanism exists which is why the central bank has to set the interest rate manually.