4 ms·

> If the chance of me getting hospitalized is so low to begin with I just don't think this is true. Again, look at the states in the US with the lowest levels

> If the chance of me getting hospitalized is so low to begin with I just don't think this is true. Again, look at the states in the US with the lowest levels of vaccination. They are running out of ICU beds due to the amount of cases. I'm not sure where you're located. Maybe there's a low amount of cases there, but in general, the risk of being hospitalized (and maybe not having a bed to go to) is rather high. The delta variant is also affecting young people more than other variants before it. I personally think getting the COVID vaccine is a smart choice. In terms of vaccinated people still spreading the virus, the idea with vaccination is to reduce the chance of being hospitalized. That still seems like a big benefit to me.

sim_card_map 5y ago
It is true. There's an Oxford Covid risk calculator, and for an average 20 something person, the risk of hospitalization is ~0.002%. https://qcovid.org/ https://qcovid.org/
- mrtesthah 5y ago
  Has this been updated for the delta variant which is estimated be twice as likely to cause hospitalization? https://www.politico.eu/article/delta-coronavirus-variant-doubles-risk-of-hospitalization-scottish-study/ https://www.politico.eu/article/delta-coronavirus-variant-do...
  - dgfitz 5y ago
    So ~0.004% then. Are you suggesting that is statistically significant?
    - fendy3002 5y ago
      I'll get downvoted, but people keep forgetting that covid spread is exponential, not linear.
      - dgfitz 5y ago
        Ok, 0.008% if you want. Sure feels like an argument for argument sake. I can find a list of odds of things that will hurt/kill a 20-something where the percentage is greater than 0.008 if you'd like.
    - leoedin 5y ago
      That calculator includes an estimate of likelihood of catching covid - so the actual risk of hospitalisation for someone who does catch covid is way, way higher - for a 25 year old man in the US it's about 1.6%. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mort...
- leoedin 5y ago
  That calculator isn't telling you the risk of hospitalisation per case, but the risk of hospitalisation over a 90 day period during the first peak of the pandemic. The two are very different. The calculated risk includes the fact that not everyone (or even most people) will get covid during that 90 day window. It's also based on the statistics for the original covid variant - by all accounts Delta is both more transmissible and more likely to cause hospitalisation. The likelihood on a per-case basis is significantly higher. The Economist has a tool here: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mort... For example, a 25 year old man with no co-morbidity who receives a positive covid test has a 1.6% chance of hospitalisation. Obviously not everyone with covid will receive a positive test (I've seen an estimate of 1 in 4 are tested) - so perhaps that rate is actually 0.4%. That's way, way higher than the 0.002% you said. Ultimately if covid is endemic, you will get it. At that point, even as a 25 year old, you're risking hospitalisation.
NalNezumi 5y ago
Thank you for the rapid and informative reply. I appreciate it (esp when the topic is a bit politicized right now) I'm not from US so I haven't checked the stats closely for those states. My current city of residence is Tokyo. Afaik right now hospitalization seems quite bad, and there's no strict lockdown. I'm trying to work from home and dodge rush hours as much as possible to reduce the risk for now. Do you have any numbers of "old vs young" hospitalization in the majority unvacinated area? And stats such as "young vaccinated vs young unvacinated" would also be interesting to see I would guess. I've heard about the delta variant being more dangerous to the young, so that's for sure a important point. But last I heard the vaccine is not that effective to Delta variant, and also the delta variant difference seems to not be that much bigger according to this[0] study I found Jeremy Howard link on Twitter (I've only read the summary so I might be wrong on this) Edit: thanks for the link hackingforfun, I'll be sure to take a look at it (tomorrow as it's late night here right now) [0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext?utm_campaign=lancet&utm_content=177869450&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-27013292 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
- hackingforfun 5y ago
  I don't have numbers on "old vs young" hospitalization. I'd have to do some more googling for that and I need to get back to work. However, regarding efficacy on the delta variant, from here [1]: Data so far suggests efficacy rates of approximately 67 percent for the J&J vaccine, 66 to 95 percent for the Moderna vaccine, and 42 to 96 percent for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Seems like pretty good efficacy to me. [1] https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-19-vaccines-work-against-the-delta-variant https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-...
- divbzero 5y ago
  Indiana currently has about 44% of overall population vaccinated (3.0M out of 6.8M). Since January the state has recorded the following numbers of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths: [1] Unvaccinated Vaccinated C 278,508 6,740 H 16,322 226 D 5,709 78 (The article did not provide a full breakdown by age, but did note that Indiana’s vaccinated population skews older and would have higher baseline risk for complications.) [1]: https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_f0e9bff4-a968-56b3-928d-734094459955.html https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_f0e9bff4-a968-56b3-...
fredros 5y ago
We should not consider the US to be a good sample, given the sky-high obesity rates.

sim_card_map 5y ago

It is true. There's an Oxford Covid risk calculator, and for an average 20 something person, the risk of hospitalization is ~0.002%. https://qcovid.org/ https://qcovid.org/

mrtesthah 5y ago
Has this been updated for the delta variant which is estimated be twice as likely to cause hospitalization? https://www.politico.eu/article/delta-coronavirus-variant-doubles-risk-of-hospitalization-scottish-study/ https://www.politico.eu/article/delta-coronavirus-variant-do...
- dgfitz 5y ago
  So ~0.004% then. Are you suggesting that is statistically significant?
  - fendy3002 5y ago
    I'll get downvoted, but people keep forgetting that covid spread is exponential, not linear.
    - dgfitz 5y ago
      Ok, 0.008% if you want. Sure feels like an argument for argument sake. I can find a list of odds of things that will hurt/kill a 20-something where the percentage is greater than 0.008 if you'd like.
  - leoedin 5y ago
    That calculator includes an estimate of likelihood of catching covid - so the actual risk of hospitalisation for someone who does catch covid is way, way higher - for a 25 year old man in the US it's about 1.6%. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mort...
leoedin 5y ago
That calculator isn't telling you the risk of hospitalisation per case, but the risk of hospitalisation over a 90 day period during the first peak of the pandemic. The two are very different. The calculated risk includes the fact that not everyone (or even most people) will get covid during that 90 day window. It's also based on the statistics for the original covid variant - by all accounts Delta is both more transmissible and more likely to cause hospitalisation. The likelihood on a per-case basis is significantly higher. The Economist has a tool here: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mort... For example, a 25 year old man with no co-morbidity who receives a positive covid test has a 1.6% chance of hospitalisation. Obviously not everyone with covid will receive a positive test (I've seen an estimate of 1 in 4 are tested) - so perhaps that rate is actually 0.4%. That's way, way higher than the 0.002% you said. Ultimately if covid is endemic, you will get it. At that point, even as a 25 year old, you're risking hospitalisation.

NalNezumi 5y ago

Thank you for the rapid and informative reply. I appreciate it (esp when the topic is a bit politicized right now) I'm not from US so I haven't checked the stats closely for those states. My current city of residence is Tokyo. Afaik right now hospitalization seems quite bad, and there's no strict lockdown. I'm trying to work from home and dodge rush hours as much as possible to reduce the risk for now. Do you have any numbers of "old vs young" hospitalization in the majority unvacinated area? And stats such as "young vaccinated vs young unvacinated" would also be interesting to see I would guess. I've heard about the delta variant being more dangerous to the young, so that's for sure a important point. But last I heard the vaccine is not that effective to Delta variant, and also the delta variant difference seems to not be that much bigger according to this[0] study I found Jeremy Howard link on Twitter (I've only read the summary so I might be wrong on this) Edit: thanks for the link hackingforfun, I'll be sure to take a look at it (tomorrow as it's late night here right now) [0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext?utm_campaign=lancet&utm_content=177869450&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-27013292 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

hackingforfun 5y ago
I don't have numbers on "old vs young" hospitalization. I'd have to do some more googling for that and I need to get back to work. However, regarding efficacy on the delta variant, from here [1]: Data so far suggests efficacy rates of approximately 67 percent for the J&J vaccine, 66 to 95 percent for the Moderna vaccine, and 42 to 96 percent for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Seems like pretty good efficacy to me. [1] https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-19-vaccines-work-against-the-delta-variant https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-...
divbzero 5y ago
Indiana currently has about 44% of overall population vaccinated (3.0M out of 6.8M). Since January the state has recorded the following numbers of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths: [1] Unvaccinated Vaccinated C 278,508 6,740 H 16,322 226 D 5,709 78 (The article did not provide a full breakdown by age, but did note that Indiana’s vaccinated population skews older and would have higher baseline risk for complications.) [1]: https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_f0e9bff4-a968-56b3-928d-734094459955.html https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_f0e9bff4-a968-56b3-...

fredros 5y ago

We should not consider the US to be a good sample, given the sky-high obesity rates.