5 ms·

I've recently bought several shares of ASML at about €670, as I can't imagine them going down anytime soon. They seem to have a pretty much monopoly on the mos

by malloc2048 5y ago

I've recently bought several shares of ASML at about €670, as I can't imagine them going down anytime soon. They seem to have a pretty much monopoly on the most advanced chipmanufacturing process and respective machines. ASML stock is also already going up for years and years. I wish I'd bought them earlier. Although ASML should be our Dutch pride, it's a company we hardly hear about in the Dutch press. Probably because their tech is relatively hard to understand.

apexalpha 5y ago
Although ASML should be our Dutch pride, it's a company we hardly hear about in the Dutch press. As another Dutch person the main stream media pretty much covers big ASML news. The CEO and CFO also regularely give interviews.
- mavhc 5y ago
  As a UK person who frequents HN, I've heard of them 5 times in the past 2 weeks.
vlovich123 5y ago
Wouldn’t the next few years already be priced into the stock price?
- vmception 5y ago
  efficient market theory is astrology for males, in a world where astrology and trading was gendered. the commonality being that neither produce peer reviewed reproducible results. nothing is priced in. things can be undervalued with known public information. market appetite can also further overvalue something with a new normal for price to equity ratios.
- dtech 5y ago
  Only if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis
- arthurcolle 5y ago
  "Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again." [0] [0] if you know, you know
  - iddan 5y ago
    https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eberem/everything_is_priced_in/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eberem/ever...
    - quickthrower2 5y ago
      That quote should be in a movie. Pretty awesome. Also wrong :-)
  - ArnoVW 5y ago
    Counter point: beginning of 2021, for weeks I was wondering why the markets were not reacting to Covid. Only when travel restrictions were introduced, and only when they were introduced to the US, the market started taking notice. Does the market extrapolate future earnings and macro economic trends, sure. Do some people have secrete insights beyond that? Sure. But I'd say the market as a whole is pretty stupid and reactive.
- Dylan16807 5y ago
  It's priced in at the confidence level the market has. If you're more confident than the market then it's an opportunity to make money. (You also have to be right, of course.)
vasco 5y ago
You should try imagining harder.
kristopolous 5y ago
Historically speaking these one off stock recommendations from HN have really been fantastic. I just sold them too early and didn't put enough down. Like that one comment I remember in 2011 recommending to buy and hold Bitcoin for 10 years. Right. I bought. Didn't hold. Same deal with Tesla. I want something that takes $5,000 from me, invests it, then makes me forget about it, then 10 years later sends me a letter and says "you forgot about this, 10 years ago you did such and such, here you go" You can do fractional buy from the US on that instrument in Sofi (not in RH) btw for those who were looking to put only like $50 in. If you are doing an onboard there to invest in this, email me (check my bio) and I'll send my referral bonus link for signup (it's $25 for stocks + $10 withdrawable cash currently). Free money...
- kalev 5y ago
  Aside from ASML, what is the recommendation at this point in time?
  - JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
    I’m feeling gold. It hasn’t moved for a decade and has all the reasons to move in the next one as people escape the currently overvalued overprinted mess we made for something real and tangible again. https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-gold/?time=20%20years&show_adjuster=1&logarithmic=1 https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-gold/?time=20%20years&show... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indica... “Gold is money, everything else is credit”. -J.P. Morgan, 1912
- bbarnett 5y ago
  I want something that takes $5,000 from me, invests it, then makes me forget about it, then 10 years later sends me a letter and says "you forgot about this, 10 years ago you did such and such, here you go" I can help you here. Let's discuss. I accept eth or bc. 3f42d
- pipodeclown 5y ago
inglor_cz 5y ago
Sadly the most efficient way to get attention of the press is to say "I support Sinterklaas" on Twitter.
- Cthulhu_ 5y ago
  I'm assuming this is a jab at Zwarte Piet, which is a lot more controversial than Sinterklaas himself.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    Yes, that was imprecise from me.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
Cthulhu_ 5y ago
I've heard of ASML for over a decade now - Dutch mainstream press might ignore them, but specialized sites like tweakers.net and partners (it's been one of my daily visits for nearly 20 years) have reported on them for ages (https://tweakers.net/zoeken/?keyword=asml#filter:q1bKTq0szy9KUbJSSizOzVHSUQJyUovcMlNzQGIlmbmpMLHg_KISsLJkpVoA https://tweakers.net/zoeken/?keyword=asml#filter:q1bKTq0szy9...) As for the stonks, it looks really healthy, only ever having gone up over the past 20 years. Significantly in the last two years though. But I think it's a safe bet given there's little competition on the market at their level. I'm sure e.g. China is working on a competitor, but they have their work cut out for them - even if they have the designs for these machines.
throwawaysea 5y ago
They don’t have a monopoly on EUV, although they have the most mature production systems, albeit still at low volumes. The core technology and research behind EUV was actually performed by US Department of Energy labs, who then shared their work under agreements with a small number of industry partners, including but not exclusively ASML, back in 1999 (https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/ https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/). This is also why ASML has a US presence and must source components from the US. There are other companies playing in this space, and while several are pursuing EUV, some are also using alternate approaches to fulfilling the same demand (like Canon’s nanoimprint). I would characterize ASML as temporarily having a long lead on EUV, but that can change in the span of 5-10 years.
- xadhominemx 5y ago
  They have a monopoly in EUV lithography. If you might have competition in 5-10 years, then you have a monopoly.
  - HPsquared 5y ago
    5-10 years is a long time in web development, but not in strategy terms.
    - xadhominemx 5y ago
      There is not going to be a competitor to ASML in 5 years. There might be alternatives on the horizon in 10 years, but they will very much still have a monopoly on EUV lithography.
erwinh 5y ago
Living in Eindhoven & bought a couple of years ago as my first ever stock purchase, went to the yearly shareholder meeting in Veldhoven which was super low-key with a very homely vibe & some super long-term holders (20+ years). Still my most profitable purchase as well.
float4 5y ago
Hehe my dad bought 500 ASML shares in '08 at roughly €15. And then he sold for €45 three years later.
- adflux 5y ago
  Great decision, he tripled his money

apexalpha 5y ago

Although ASML should be our Dutch pride, it's a company we hardly hear about in the Dutch press. As another Dutch person the main stream media pretty much covers big ASML news. The CEO and CFO also regularely give interviews.

mavhc 5y ago
As a UK person who frequents HN, I've heard of them 5 times in the past 2 weeks.

vlovich123 5y ago

Wouldn’t the next few years already be priced into the stock price?

vmception 5y ago
efficient market theory is astrology for males, in a world where astrology and trading was gendered. the commonality being that neither produce peer reviewed reproducible results. nothing is priced in. things can be undervalued with known public information. market appetite can also further overvalue something with a new normal for price to equity ratios.
dtech 5y ago
Only if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis
arthurcolle 5y ago
"Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again." [0] [0] if you know, you know
- iddan 5y ago
  https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eberem/everything_is_priced_in/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eberem/ever...
  - quickthrower2 5y ago
    That quote should be in a movie. Pretty awesome. Also wrong :-)
- ArnoVW 5y ago
  Counter point: beginning of 2021, for weeks I was wondering why the markets were not reacting to Covid. Only when travel restrictions were introduced, and only when they were introduced to the US, the market started taking notice. Does the market extrapolate future earnings and macro economic trends, sure. Do some people have secrete insights beyond that? Sure. But I'd say the market as a whole is pretty stupid and reactive.
Dylan16807 5y ago
It's priced in at the confidence level the market has. If you're more confident than the market then it's an opportunity to make money. (You also have to be right, of course.)

vasco 5y ago

You should try imagining harder.

kristopolous 5y ago

Historically speaking these one off stock recommendations from HN have really been fantastic. I just sold them too early and didn't put enough down. Like that one comment I remember in 2011 recommending to buy and hold Bitcoin for 10 years. Right. I bought. Didn't hold. Same deal with Tesla. I want something that takes $5,000 from me, invests it, then makes me forget about it, then 10 years later sends me a letter and says "you forgot about this, 10 years ago you did such and such, here you go" You can do fractional buy from the US on that instrument in Sofi (not in RH) btw for those who were looking to put only like $50 in. If you are doing an onboard there to invest in this, email me (check my bio) and I'll send my referral bonus link for signup (it's $25 for stocks + $10 withdrawable cash currently). Free money...

kalev 5y ago
Aside from ASML, what is the recommendation at this point in time?
- JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
  I’m feeling gold. It hasn’t moved for a decade and has all the reasons to move in the next one as people escape the currently overvalued overprinted mess we made for something real and tangible again. https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-gold/?time=20%20years&show_adjuster=1&logarithmic=1 https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-gold/?time=20%20years&show... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indica... “Gold is money, everything else is credit”. -J.P. Morgan, 1912
bbarnett 5y ago
I want something that takes $5,000 from me, invests it, then makes me forget about it, then 10 years later sends me a letter and says "you forgot about this, 10 years ago you did such and such, here you go" I can help you here. Let's discuss. I accept eth or bc. 3f42d
pipodeclown 5y ago

inglor_cz 5y ago

Sadly the most efficient way to get attention of the press is to say "I support Sinterklaas" on Twitter.

Cthulhu_ 5y ago
I'm assuming this is a jab at Zwarte Piet, which is a lot more controversial than Sinterklaas himself.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  Yes, that was imprecise from me.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]

Cthulhu_ 5y ago

I've heard of ASML for over a decade now - Dutch mainstream press might ignore them, but specialized sites like tweakers.net and partners (it's been one of my daily visits for nearly 20 years) have reported on them for ages (https://tweakers.net/zoeken/?keyword=asml#filter:q1bKTq0szy9KUbJSSizOzVHSUQJyUovcMlNzQGIlmbmpMLHg_KISsLJkpVoA https://tweakers.net/zoeken/?keyword=asml#filter:q1bKTq0szy9...) As for the stonks, it looks really healthy, only ever having gone up over the past 20 years. Significantly in the last two years though. But I think it's a safe bet given there's little competition on the market at their level. I'm sure e.g. China is working on a competitor, but they have their work cut out for them - even if they have the designs for these machines.

throwawaysea 5y ago

They don’t have a monopoly on EUV, although they have the most mature production systems, albeit still at low volumes. The core technology and research behind EUV was actually performed by US Department of Energy labs, who then shared their work under agreements with a small number of industry partners, including but not exclusively ASML, back in 1999 (https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/ https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/). This is also why ASML has a US presence and must source components from the US. There are other companies playing in this space, and while several are pursuing EUV, some are also using alternate approaches to fulfilling the same demand (like Canon’s nanoimprint). I would characterize ASML as temporarily having a long lead on EUV, but that can change in the span of 5-10 years.

xadhominemx 5y ago
They have a monopoly in EUV lithography. If you might have competition in 5-10 years, then you have a monopoly.
- HPsquared 5y ago
  5-10 years is a long time in web development, but not in strategy terms.
  - xadhominemx 5y ago
    There is not going to be a competitor to ASML in 5 years. There might be alternatives on the horizon in 10 years, but they will very much still have a monopoly on EUV lithography.

erwinh 5y ago

Living in Eindhoven & bought a couple of years ago as my first ever stock purchase, went to the yearly shareholder meeting in Veldhoven which was super low-key with a very homely vibe & some super long-term holders (20+ years). Still my most profitable purchase as well.

float4 5y ago

Hehe my dad bought 500 ASML shares in '08 at roughly €15. And then he sold for €45 three years later.

adflux 5y ago
Great decision, he tripled his money