11 ms·

I couldn't read the whole article, but this has already started with crops more sensitive to climate - namely grapes for wine.

SCUSKU 5y ago
Found about this plugin on HN a few days ago that can bypass paywalls, highly recommend! Should be able to read it with it installed. https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-firefox-clean/-/blob/master/README.md https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-firefox-clea...
- yellow_lead 5y ago
  Will give it a try. Thanks :)
- frereubu 5y ago
  I'm a subscriber, but you can also read occasional articles on The Economist if you turn off JavaScript.
LurkingPenguin 5y ago
Yes. People have laughed but my vineyard in Sitka, Alaska will soon be producing world-class Cabs.
- arthurcolle 5y ago
  How much was the parcel if you don't mind sharing? I've had similar thoughts regarding Miami near-floodplain real estate - buying land that might hypothetically become the "new coast" based on projections for sea levels over the next 20, 30 years. Obviously a long shot in terms of ROI but I mean the apparent recent increase in hurricanes in those coastal areas in terms of both intensity and frequency is palpable...
  - nradov 5y ago
    The trouble with South Florida is that it's so flat. Any significant sea level rise will mean extensive flooding inland every time there's a major storm because the rainwater won't have anywhere to drain away.
  - qqqwerty 5y ago
    I would avoid coastal communities. Wealthy beachfront owners will likely find a way to socialize their losses, either by getting taxpayers to fund coastal armoring or via direct bailouts. Alternatively there is the risk that property in those areas becomes uninsurable and by proxy unbankable. Hard to predict which way it goes, probably will depend on the individual community. Probably better to buy cheap arable land somewhere in the north that is projected to get warmer and has access to lots of water.
    - lotsofpulp 5y ago
      > Wealthy beachfront owners will likely find a way to socialize their losses, either by getting taxpayers to fund coastal armoring or via direct bailouts. Alternatively there is the risk that property in those areas becomes uninsurable and by proxy unbankable. This is not hard to predict because it has already happened for decades. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Progr... It is not just about wealth though, Florida is (or was) a swing state with a ton of votes for the president, and has only increased in political influence. Politically, it is going to near impossible to stop federal taxpayer funded bailouts for them.
- null_object 5y ago
  > People have laughed but my vineyard in Sitka, Alaska will soon be producing world-class Cabs I had this discussion with a previous CEO at a company I worked for here in Sweden a few years ago: he (being a type-A personality, and also loving fast sports cars) was very upbeat about global warming, and saw it as an opportunity to take over the Mediterranean role of growing grapes, olives and other foods that needed a warmer climate. I couldn’t convince him that what will probably happen instead, would be a less predictable climate, with all sorts of micro-effects (such as more rain or extreme weather) making grapes rot on the vine or olives whither in the sudden freezes. Thinking that the micro-climate of a certain area - affected by land-masses and nearby seas and other specific circumstances - will simply move north and southwards, strikes me as very naive.
  - angelzen 5y ago
    Stockholm at 59.33°N is about .5 degree North of Churchill in Northern Manitoba. Without the Gulf Stream your friend may be in for a rude surprise: polar bears rather than grapes and olives. > Churchill is a town in northern Manitoba, Canada, [...] most famous for the many polar bears that move toward the shore from inland in the autumn, leading to the nickname "Polar Bear Capital of the World" that has helped its growing tourism industry. Thanks to climate change, by 2050 it will be blessed by 14 summer days, up from 8 in 2021. Not sure that's enough to scare the bears away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill,_Manitoba https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill,_Manitoba https://climateatlas.ca/map/canada/25C_2030_85#z=6&lat=55.65&lng=-95&city=481 https://climateatlas.ca/map/canada/25C_2030_85#z=6&lat=55.65...
    - fragbait65 5y ago
      I agree, Siberian cold due to changed flows of different currents seems more likely as the end result due to climate change for the Nordics rather than increased temperatures. Increasing temperatures now does not equal increased temperatures later, when the system has stabilized again. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it seems more likely with what the current data seems to imply, my current information is from some pop culture article though, so I'm the first one to agree that that information might be wrong.
- grecy 5y ago
  I wouldn't laugh too much. In 2016 Juneau, the capital city of Alaska, recorded zero measurable snowfall for the entire winter for the first time in recorded history [1]. Climate change impacts are already severe in the North. Here's what it used to look like in a "proper Alaska" winter. We walked across the lake near town to the Glacier. That lake doesn't freeze anymore [2] [1] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/where-oh-where-has-alaska%E2%80%99s-winter-gone https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/where-oh... [2] http://theroadchoseme.com/mendenhall-glacier-juneau-alaska http://theroadchoseme.com/mendenhall-glacier-juneau-alaska
aaronbrethorst 5y ago
20 years ago, I don’t think you could make wine in Wisconsin. Today, Wisconsin wine is total garbage. I am morbidly curious about what it tastes like in another 20.
- jraph 5y ago
  Like "Winesconsin", the most reputed wine in the US at the time. Exported everywhere around the world. Very expensive. Cheaper restaurants will serve French wines instead. French wines will have, by the way, suffered from drastic climate change by then.
- uxp100 5y ago
  Wollersheim has been making garbage wine in Wisconsin since 1972, and using their own grapes since 1976, including garbage wines made entirely from bad grapes grown in Wisconsin. That Wisconsin wedding scourge, Prarie Fume uses New York grapes, however. So uh, they been doin it a long time and uh, still not to my taste. Also, their vineyard was originally built in the 1800s is the story, so grape cultivation was attempted back then too, I can imagine those wines were rough too.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  My parents experimented with making wine from grapes grown in the UP in the 80s. That's different than commercial viability of course, but the vines thrived even then.
grecy 5y ago
15 years ago a friend in Canada planted many fruit trees that were known not to be able to handle the winters in that part of the country. Now he enjoys a ton of fruit you "can't grow" in that part of Canada.
- option 5y ago
  we should adapt to climate change and use it to our advantage. This does not conflict with trying to slow it.
  - TeMPOraL 5y ago
    > This does not conflict with trying to slow it. It can, though, so we need to be super careful. It's basic human social dynamics: once someone starts making money from mitigating a problem, they become invested in perpetuating (or even worsening) the problem. When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. But when your lemonade stand starts raking in serious cash, you suddenly want to make sure everyone is being given lemons, so you can buy them up and sell even more lemonade.
    - option 5y ago
      this can be said about pretty much everything
      - meheleventyone 5y ago
        Yes but perverse incentives like this are very often neglected in peoples happy path analysis.
      - TeMPOraL 5y ago
        Yes. Doesn't make it any less true. On the contrary, realizing this lets one understand many peculiarities of the civilization we live in.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
newbamboo 5y ago
Explains the decline in Lodi’s wine tourism.
leipert 5y ago
This year German farmers grew watermelon for the first time (outside of a greenhouse)
- 88840-8855 5y ago
  We are growing watermelons for years in our garden in Germany. And how does this fit to the fact that Germany has the coldest year for a long time? edit: wtf are you downvoting? Dumb af, look up the figures.
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    It isn't cold. The weather just is miserable. But the average temperatures are still pretty high and way higher than in a bad summer in the 80ies. While I didn't especially appreciate the weather here this year, my plants have been growing like hell, they like the wet and not too cold.
    - 88840-8855 5y ago
      It IS cold compared to the last 20 years AND to other regions in Europe. Can you please stop spreading lies with "it is not cold". Get your facts straight before you post anecdotes that your plants are growing "like hell". https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/german-2021-wheat-crop-to-fall-3.6-after-adverse-weather-ministry-2021-08-25 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/german-2021-wheat-crop-to-fa...
      - jounker 5y ago
        The articles doesn’t say the weather is cold. It says that the weather has been highly variable.
      - morsch 5y ago
        Compared to 1961-1990, June and July were pretty warm. The harvest has been bad due to the rain, a few weeks ago they were expecting an above average harvest. https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/20210629_deutschlandwetter_juni2021_news.html https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/2021... https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/20210730_deutschlandwetter_juli2021_news.html https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/2021...
malka 5y ago
French wine has more and more ethanol in it, due to grapes being more sugary, due to climate change.
- alkonaut 5y ago
  I read that French winemakers are hedging their bets by buying land further north in places like Britain and Scandinavia, but not sure if that's an isolated occurence or a trend.
  - prawn 5y ago
    My wife's wine-growing family are hedging bets in Australia by buying/planting vineyards in a different state with a cooler climate. There have been cases where large swathes of a region have lost a vintage to smoke taint from bushfires also, so having a backup option is useful.

SCUSKU 5y ago

Found about this plugin on HN a few days ago that can bypass paywalls, highly recommend! Should be able to read it with it installed. https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-firefox-clean/-/blob/master/README.md https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-firefox-clea...

yellow_lead 5y ago
Will give it a try. Thanks :)
frereubu 5y ago
I'm a subscriber, but you can also read occasional articles on The Economist if you turn off JavaScript.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago

Yes. People have laughed but my vineyard in Sitka, Alaska will soon be producing world-class Cabs.

arthurcolle 5y ago
How much was the parcel if you don't mind sharing? I've had similar thoughts regarding Miami near-floodplain real estate - buying land that might hypothetically become the "new coast" based on projections for sea levels over the next 20, 30 years. Obviously a long shot in terms of ROI but I mean the apparent recent increase in hurricanes in those coastal areas in terms of both intensity and frequency is palpable...
- nradov 5y ago
  The trouble with South Florida is that it's so flat. Any significant sea level rise will mean extensive flooding inland every time there's a major storm because the rainwater won't have anywhere to drain away.
- qqqwerty 5y ago
  I would avoid coastal communities. Wealthy beachfront owners will likely find a way to socialize their losses, either by getting taxpayers to fund coastal armoring or via direct bailouts. Alternatively there is the risk that property in those areas becomes uninsurable and by proxy unbankable. Hard to predict which way it goes, probably will depend on the individual community. Probably better to buy cheap arable land somewhere in the north that is projected to get warmer and has access to lots of water.
  - lotsofpulp 5y ago
    > Wealthy beachfront owners will likely find a way to socialize their losses, either by getting taxpayers to fund coastal armoring or via direct bailouts. Alternatively there is the risk that property in those areas becomes uninsurable and by proxy unbankable. This is not hard to predict because it has already happened for decades. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Progr... It is not just about wealth though, Florida is (or was) a swing state with a ton of votes for the president, and has only increased in political influence. Politically, it is going to near impossible to stop federal taxpayer funded bailouts for them.
null_object 5y ago
> People have laughed but my vineyard in Sitka, Alaska will soon be producing world-class Cabs I had this discussion with a previous CEO at a company I worked for here in Sweden a few years ago: he (being a type-A personality, and also loving fast sports cars) was very upbeat about global warming, and saw it as an opportunity to take over the Mediterranean role of growing grapes, olives and other foods that needed a warmer climate. I couldn’t convince him that what will probably happen instead, would be a less predictable climate, with all sorts of micro-effects (such as more rain or extreme weather) making grapes rot on the vine or olives whither in the sudden freezes. Thinking that the micro-climate of a certain area - affected by land-masses and nearby seas and other specific circumstances - will simply move north and southwards, strikes me as very naive.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Stockholm at 59.33°N is about .5 degree North of Churchill in Northern Manitoba. Without the Gulf Stream your friend may be in for a rude surprise: polar bears rather than grapes and olives. > Churchill is a town in northern Manitoba, Canada, [...] most famous for the many polar bears that move toward the shore from inland in the autumn, leading to the nickname "Polar Bear Capital of the World" that has helped its growing tourism industry. Thanks to climate change, by 2050 it will be blessed by 14 summer days, up from 8 in 2021. Not sure that's enough to scare the bears away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill,_Manitoba https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill,_Manitoba https://climateatlas.ca/map/canada/25C_2030_85#z=6&lat=55.65&lng=-95&city=481 https://climateatlas.ca/map/canada/25C_2030_85#z=6&lat=55.65...
  - fragbait65 5y ago
    I agree, Siberian cold due to changed flows of different currents seems more likely as the end result due to climate change for the Nordics rather than increased temperatures. Increasing temperatures now does not equal increased temperatures later, when the system has stabilized again. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it seems more likely with what the current data seems to imply, my current information is from some pop culture article though, so I'm the first one to agree that that information might be wrong.
grecy 5y ago
I wouldn't laugh too much. In 2016 Juneau, the capital city of Alaska, recorded zero measurable snowfall for the entire winter for the first time in recorded history [1]. Climate change impacts are already severe in the North. Here's what it used to look like in a "proper Alaska" winter. We walked across the lake near town to the Glacier. That lake doesn't freeze anymore [2] [1] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/where-oh-where-has-alaska%E2%80%99s-winter-gone https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/where-oh... [2] http://theroadchoseme.com/mendenhall-glacier-juneau-alaska http://theroadchoseme.com/mendenhall-glacier-juneau-alaska

aaronbrethorst 5y ago

20 years ago, I don’t think you could make wine in Wisconsin. Today, Wisconsin wine is total garbage. I am morbidly curious about what it tastes like in another 20.

jraph 5y ago
Like "Winesconsin", the most reputed wine in the US at the time. Exported everywhere around the world. Very expensive. Cheaper restaurants will serve French wines instead. French wines will have, by the way, suffered from drastic climate change by then.
uxp100 5y ago
Wollersheim has been making garbage wine in Wisconsin since 1972, and using their own grapes since 1976, including garbage wines made entirely from bad grapes grown in Wisconsin. That Wisconsin wedding scourge, Prarie Fume uses New York grapes, however. So uh, they been doin it a long time and uh, still not to my taste. Also, their vineyard was originally built in the 1800s is the story, so grape cultivation was attempted back then too, I can imagine those wines were rough too.
maxerickson 5y ago
My parents experimented with making wine from grapes grown in the UP in the 80s. That's different than commercial viability of course, but the vines thrived even then.

grecy 5y ago

15 years ago a friend in Canada planted many fruit trees that were known not to be able to handle the winters in that part of the country. Now he enjoys a ton of fruit you "can't grow" in that part of Canada.

option 5y ago
we should adapt to climate change and use it to our advantage. This does not conflict with trying to slow it.
- TeMPOraL 5y ago
  > This does not conflict with trying to slow it. It can, though, so we need to be super careful. It's basic human social dynamics: once someone starts making money from mitigating a problem, they become invested in perpetuating (or even worsening) the problem. When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. But when your lemonade stand starts raking in serious cash, you suddenly want to make sure everyone is being given lemons, so you can buy them up and sell even more lemonade.
  - option 5y ago
    this can be said about pretty much everything
    - meheleventyone 5y ago
      Yes but perverse incentives like this are very often neglected in peoples happy path analysis.
    - TeMPOraL 5y ago
      Yes. Doesn't make it any less true. On the contrary, realizing this lets one understand many peculiarities of the civilization we live in.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]

newbamboo 5y ago

Explains the decline in Lodi’s wine tourism.

leipert 5y ago

This year German farmers grew watermelon for the first time (outside of a greenhouse)

88840-8855 5y ago
We are growing watermelons for years in our garden in Germany. And how does this fit to the fact that Germany has the coldest year for a long time? edit: wtf are you downvoting? Dumb af, look up the figures.
- _ph_ 5y ago
  It isn't cold. The weather just is miserable. But the average temperatures are still pretty high and way higher than in a bad summer in the 80ies. While I didn't especially appreciate the weather here this year, my plants have been growing like hell, they like the wet and not too cold.
  - 88840-8855 5y ago
    It IS cold compared to the last 20 years AND to other regions in Europe. Can you please stop spreading lies with "it is not cold". Get your facts straight before you post anecdotes that your plants are growing "like hell". https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/german-2021-wheat-crop-to-fall-3.6-after-adverse-weather-ministry-2021-08-25 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/german-2021-wheat-crop-to-fa...
    - jounker 5y ago
      The articles doesn’t say the weather is cold. It says that the weather has been highly variable.
    - morsch 5y ago
      Compared to 1961-1990, June and July were pretty warm. The harvest has been bad due to the rain, a few weeks ago they were expecting an above average harvest. https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/20210629_deutschlandwetter_juni2021_news.html https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/2021... https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/20210730_deutschlandwetter_juli2021_news.html https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/2021...

malka 5y ago

French wine has more and more ethanol in it, due to grapes being more sugary, due to climate change.

alkonaut 5y ago
I read that French winemakers are hedging their bets by buying land further north in places like Britain and Scandinavia, but not sure if that's an isolated occurence or a trend.
- prawn 5y ago
  My wife's wine-growing family are hedging bets in Australia by buying/planting vineyards in a different state with a cooler climate. There have been cases where large swathes of a region have lost a vintage to smoke taint from bushfires also, so having a backup option is useful.