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China initiating military invasion of Taiwan would start WWIII, the US has no choice but to defend. The world is likely more than a decade away from any sort of

China initiating military invasion of Taiwan would start WWIII, the US has no choice but to defend. The world is likely more than a decade away from any sort of reliable chip infrastructure with parity to the current south Asian concentration. China is driving the world to nuclear conflict, especially with the first strike noises they've been making in recent months.

bee_rider 5y ago
From a development point of view, I suspect taking step back to the previous semiconductor node would be preferable to a nuclear WWIII. However, humanitarian concerns and international obligations seem to be a better framework for analyzing this sort of decision, and thankfully that's all over my head. Hopefully it doesn't come up.
dillondoyle 5y ago
Do you have anything I can read about their first strike posturing? I haven't read anything about that. I have read about this war of super super sonic weapons which is scary to me.
- ChemSpider 5y ago
  https://news.sky.com/story/china-not-ruling-out-military-force-as-it-seeks-inevitable-reunification-with-taiwan-11596648 https://news.sky.com/story/china-not-ruling-out-military-for...
  - dillondoyle 5y ago
    Wow thanks. That's some pretty scary rhetoric.
m0zg 5y ago
Defend _how_ though? How do you defend against an adversary with ICBMs, fleet, and air force who, on top of that, can draft an army that exceeds the entire population of the US? "Nuclear conflict" only works as a deterrent when the situation is one-sided. That is very much not the case here.
- swader999 5y ago
  Rod of god into 3GD for a start.
  - m0zg 5y ago
    That means nukes in NYC. Cost-prohibitive right off the bat.
    - swader999 5y ago
      Probably.
- nradov 5y ago
  China could certainly wreck Taiwan with air and missile strikes, however an invasion is far more difficult. China has limited amphibious lift capacity and those ships would be very vulnerable while crossing the strait. Due to geography there are only a few beaches and ports where an invasion force could put ashore, and those all have extensive defenses. So it doesn't matter how large China's population is if they can't get them to Taiwan, and then maintain the necessary logistic train.
  - m0zg 5y ago
    Wait, you're seriously suggesting that _Taiwan_ (pop 23.6M) could protect itself against _China_? I don't know what to tell you.
    - evilos 5y ago
      From a traditional amphibious assault? Absolutely, because they are a fucking nightmare to pull off. Amphibious assault basically negates the population advantage that China has. Of course if China wanted to just bombard Taiwan into rubble, there is nothing Taiwan could do about that. But the cost/benefit of such an action is really bad.
    - Apocryphon 5y ago
bserge 5y ago
Are they? Words are cheap, even meaningless these days.

bee_rider 5y ago

From a development point of view, I suspect taking step back to the previous semiconductor node would be preferable to a nuclear WWIII. However, humanitarian concerns and international obligations seem to be a better framework for analyzing this sort of decision, and thankfully that's all over my head. Hopefully it doesn't come up.

dillondoyle 5y ago

Do you have anything I can read about their first strike posturing? I haven't read anything about that. I have read about this war of super super sonic weapons which is scary to me.

ChemSpider 5y ago
https://news.sky.com/story/china-not-ruling-out-military-force-as-it-seeks-inevitable-reunification-with-taiwan-11596648 https://news.sky.com/story/china-not-ruling-out-military-for...
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  Wow thanks. That's some pretty scary rhetoric.

m0zg 5y ago

Defend _how_ though? How do you defend against an adversary with ICBMs, fleet, and air force who, on top of that, can draft an army that exceeds the entire population of the US? "Nuclear conflict" only works as a deterrent when the situation is one-sided. That is very much not the case here.

swader999 5y ago
Rod of god into 3GD for a start.
- m0zg 5y ago
  That means nukes in NYC. Cost-prohibitive right off the bat.
  - swader999 5y ago
    Probably.
nradov 5y ago
China could certainly wreck Taiwan with air and missile strikes, however an invasion is far more difficult. China has limited amphibious lift capacity and those ships would be very vulnerable while crossing the strait. Due to geography there are only a few beaches and ports where an invasion force could put ashore, and those all have extensive defenses. So it doesn't matter how large China's population is if they can't get them to Taiwan, and then maintain the necessary logistic train.
- m0zg 5y ago
  Wait, you're seriously suggesting that _Taiwan_ (pop 23.6M) could protect itself against _China_? I don't know what to tell you.
  - evilos 5y ago
    From a traditional amphibious assault? Absolutely, because they are a fucking nightmare to pull off. Amphibious assault basically negates the population advantage that China has. Of course if China wanted to just bombard Taiwan into rubble, there is nothing Taiwan could do about that. But the cost/benefit of such an action is really bad.
  - Apocryphon 5y ago

bserge 5y ago

Are they? Words are cheap, even meaningless these days.