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Yeah, GP has a couple of interesting ideas mixed in there (NY lockdown policy and building hospital capacity) but the rest are bog standard anti-mask, anti-vax

Yeah, GP has a couple of interesting ideas mixed in there (NY lockdown policy and building hospital capacity) but the rest are bog standard anti-mask, anti-vax talking points. Masks help, vaccines help -- it's all about pushing R below 1, and a measure doesn't have to be 100% effective (or anywhere near that) to push. Lockdowns do flatten the curve, and while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again). I was pleasantly surprised by the "flatten the curve" narrative -- usually the telephone game ensures that this kind of nuance gets buried under simpler, incorrect versions like "if we just lock down for two weeks, this will be over," but this time around I was pleased to see "flatten the curve" start strong and keep its legs. CDC's initial mask take was wrong, but evidence changed their minds, and that's a good sign. GP, if you want to harp on this, tell me: if I were to dig through your post history would I find a bunch of poorly aged posts about a silent first wave?

autokad 5y ago
I am not anti vax, I am vaccinated and I recommend to everyone to do the same. However, relying on this vaccine as a long term solution is a very bad idea. Also you are stating I am anti mask when I stated how I recommended mask usage. Do you not read or do you just force your expectations on people? Sure, go ahead and dig through my history. not sure what you mean by 'a silent first wave'.
- jjoonathan 5y ago
  Complaining about vaccine inefficacy is absolutely anti-vax: these vaccines aren't just good enough to be useful to the population, they're actually good enough to significantly protect individuals. The only scale on which these vaccines are ineffective is a scale with a heavy thumb on it. "CDC was anti-mask at one point" is absolutely an anti-mask talking point. They quickly figured out their error and fixed it. There's only one reason to bring up the old policy. I'm not familiar with the Germany talking point, but I am familiar with the Texas talking point and the Sweden talking point -- which both aged very poorly. I tend to suspect Germany is the new pivot. The silent first wave is an anti-lockdown talking point that became prominent on the downswing of the first and second waves, the idea being that a silent first wave of asymptomatic infections had already immunized everyone and that we could therefore lift the lockdown because there wouldn't be another wave. Then... there was another wave.
  - sam345 5y ago
    Accusing somebody of following a talking point seems needlessly provacative and ad-hominem, and not in the spirit of HN. Better to just give reasoned cited responses and leave it at that.
    - jjoonathan 5y ago
      I think it's important to discuss the points, but I also think it's important to discuss the game of "I'm not anti-vax or anti-mask, but here are a bunch of anti-mask and anti-vax talking points." It's popular, it's spreading, and I think it's important to call it out when one sees it.
disgruntledphd2 5y ago
> while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again). Unfortunately, while hospitals can be built, you can't train enough medical professionals to staff the hospital in two years. More generally, rather like nobody expects the Spanish inquisition, no health care system can cope with a global pandemic. We'd need to 10x health care capacity, most of which would sit unused for most of the time.

autokad 5y ago

I am not anti vax, I am vaccinated and I recommend to everyone to do the same. However, relying on this vaccine as a long term solution is a very bad idea. Also you are stating I am anti mask when I stated how I recommended mask usage. Do you not read or do you just force your expectations on people? Sure, go ahead and dig through my history. not sure what you mean by 'a silent first wave'.

jjoonathan 5y ago
Complaining about vaccine inefficacy is absolutely anti-vax: these vaccines aren't just good enough to be useful to the population, they're actually good enough to significantly protect individuals. The only scale on which these vaccines are ineffective is a scale with a heavy thumb on it. "CDC was anti-mask at one point" is absolutely an anti-mask talking point. They quickly figured out their error and fixed it. There's only one reason to bring up the old policy. I'm not familiar with the Germany talking point, but I am familiar with the Texas talking point and the Sweden talking point -- which both aged very poorly. I tend to suspect Germany is the new pivot. The silent first wave is an anti-lockdown talking point that became prominent on the downswing of the first and second waves, the idea being that a silent first wave of asymptomatic infections had already immunized everyone and that we could therefore lift the lockdown because there wouldn't be another wave. Then... there was another wave.
- sam345 5y ago
  Accusing somebody of following a talking point seems needlessly provacative and ad-hominem, and not in the spirit of HN. Better to just give reasoned cited responses and leave it at that.
  - jjoonathan 5y ago
    I think it's important to discuss the points, but I also think it's important to discuss the game of "I'm not anti-vax or anti-mask, but here are a bunch of anti-mask and anti-vax talking points." It's popular, it's spreading, and I think it's important to call it out when one sees it.

disgruntledphd2 5y ago

> while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again). Unfortunately, while hospitals can be built, you can't train enough medical professionals to staff the hospital in two years. More generally, rather like nobody expects the Spanish inquisition, no health care system can cope with a global pandemic. We'd need to 10x health care capacity, most of which would sit unused for most of the time.