6 ms·

> some research has shown that they don't do very well at stopping spread, so why all the fuss to force people to get vaccinated? Do you have a link/links to w

by werm82 5y ago

> some research has shown that they don't do very well at stopping spread, so why all the fuss to force people to get vaccinated? Do you have a link/links to where you read that vaccines don't do well at stopping the spread? Everything I've read is that vaccines, while not 100% effective at stopping the vaccinated person from infecting someone else, significantly lower the risk of spreading the virus[0]. That risk drops dramatically when both parties involved are vaccinated. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/keythingstoknow.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/keythings..., see Effectiveness --> What we know

jjoonathan 5y ago
Yeah, GP has a couple of interesting ideas mixed in there (NY lockdown policy and building hospital capacity) but the rest are bog standard anti-mask, anti-vax talking points. Masks help, vaccines help -- it's all about pushing R below 1, and a measure doesn't have to be 100% effective (or anywhere near that) to push. Lockdowns do flatten the curve, and while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again). I was pleasantly surprised by the "flatten the curve" narrative -- usually the telephone game ensures that this kind of nuance gets buried under simpler, incorrect versions like "if we just lock down for two weeks, this will be over," but this time around I was pleased to see "flatten the curve" start strong and keep its legs. CDC's initial mask take was wrong, but evidence changed their minds, and that's a good sign. GP, if you want to harp on this, tell me: if I were to dig through your post history would I find a bunch of poorly aged posts about a silent first wave?
- autokad 5y ago
  I am not anti vax, I am vaccinated and I recommend to everyone to do the same. However, relying on this vaccine as a long term solution is a very bad idea. Also you are stating I am anti mask when I stated how I recommended mask usage. Do you not read or do you just force your expectations on people? Sure, go ahead and dig through my history. not sure what you mean by 'a silent first wave'.
  - jjoonathan 5y ago
    Complaining about vaccine inefficacy is absolutely anti-vax: these vaccines aren't just good enough to be useful to the population, they're actually good enough to significantly protect individuals. The only scale on which these vaccines are ineffective is a scale with a heavy thumb on it. "CDC was anti-mask at one point" is absolutely an anti-mask talking point. They quickly figured out their error and fixed it. There's only one reason to bring up the old policy. I'm not familiar with the Germany talking point, but I am familiar with the Texas talking point and the Sweden talking point -- which both aged very poorly. I tend to suspect Germany is the new pivot. The silent first wave is an anti-lockdown talking point that became prominent on the downswing of the first and second waves, the idea being that a silent first wave of asymptomatic infections had already immunized everyone and that we could therefore lift the lockdown because there wouldn't be another wave. Then... there was another wave.
    - sam345 5y ago
      Accusing somebody of following a talking point seems needlessly provacative and ad-hominem, and not in the spirit of HN. Better to just give reasoned cited responses and leave it at that.
      - jjoonathan 5y ago
        I think it's important to discuss the points, but I also think it's important to discuss the game of "I'm not anti-vax or anti-mask, but here are a bunch of anti-mask and anti-vax talking points." It's popular, it's spreading, and I think it's important to call it out when one sees it.
- disgruntledphd2 5y ago
  > while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again). Unfortunately, while hospitals can be built, you can't train enough medical professionals to staff the hospital in two years. More generally, rather like nobody expects the Spanish inquisition, no health care system can cope with a global pandemic. We'd need to 10x health care capacity, most of which would sit unused for most of the time.
criticaltinker 5y ago
GP's statement contradicts the scientific literature - vaccination does reduce viral load of subsequent infection, and consequently reduces transmission [1]. However folks should be aware that immunity acquired through natural infection is robust and durable, and also has the same effect of reducing viral load and transmission [2]. It has been documented that people with asymptomatic infection will clear the virus quickly compared to those who are symptomatic [3]. Recent meta-analyses [4] and large population serological studies [5] have estimated the asymptomatic proportion lower bound to be at least ~33%, and the upper bound to be ~65% (even higher for young adults). Considering recent evidence that cases may be massively under-reported, the true asymptomatic proportion could be even higher than suggested [6]. Taken together, these results imply that a majority of the population has been already exposed to the virus, and either through natural infection or vaccination has acquired some degree of immunity that reduces the transmission of the virus. Analogous to antibiotic resistance, vaccine resistance can evolve if vaccines are used indiscriminately [7][8][9][10]. So the benefits of compulsory mass vaccination may not outweigh the risks of such a policy, given the current state of affairs. > so why all the fuss to force people to get vaccinated? It is an important question with tremendously complex factors that go beyond the expertise of most lay people. [1] Initial report of decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load after inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01316-7?origin=app https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01316-7?origin=ap... [2] Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2 https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37... [3] The Natural History and Transmission Potential of Asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666524720301725 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266652472... [4] The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976 https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976 [5] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y [6] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372030129X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372... [7] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ [8] Can we predict the limits of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their phenotypic consequences? https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evoluti... [9] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016... [10] The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26302775/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26302775/

by werm82 5y ago

jjoonathan 5y ago

Yeah, GP has a couple of interesting ideas mixed in there (NY lockdown policy and building hospital capacity) but the rest are bog standard anti-mask, anti-vax talking points. Masks help, vaccines help -- it's all about pushing R below 1, and a measure doesn't have to be 100% effective (or anywhere near that) to push. Lockdowns do flatten the curve, and while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again). I was pleasantly surprised by the "flatten the curve" narrative -- usually the telephone game ensures that this kind of nuance gets buried under simpler, incorrect versions like "if we just lock down for two weeks, this will be over," but this time around I was pleased to see "flatten the curve" start strong and keep its legs. CDC's initial mask take was wrong, but evidence changed their minds, and that's a good sign. GP, if you want to harp on this, tell me: if I were to dig through your post history would I find a bunch of poorly aged posts about a silent first wave?

autokad 5y ago
I am not anti vax, I am vaccinated and I recommend to everyone to do the same. However, relying on this vaccine as a long term solution is a very bad idea. Also you are stating I am anti mask when I stated how I recommended mask usage. Do you not read or do you just force your expectations on people? Sure, go ahead and dig through my history. not sure what you mean by 'a silent first wave'.
- jjoonathan 5y ago
  Complaining about vaccine inefficacy is absolutely anti-vax: these vaccines aren't just good enough to be useful to the population, they're actually good enough to significantly protect individuals. The only scale on which these vaccines are ineffective is a scale with a heavy thumb on it. "CDC was anti-mask at one point" is absolutely an anti-mask talking point. They quickly figured out their error and fixed it. There's only one reason to bring up the old policy. I'm not familiar with the Germany talking point, but I am familiar with the Texas talking point and the Sweden talking point -- which both aged very poorly. I tend to suspect Germany is the new pivot. The silent first wave is an anti-lockdown talking point that became prominent on the downswing of the first and second waves, the idea being that a silent first wave of asymptomatic infections had already immunized everyone and that we could therefore lift the lockdown because there wouldn't be another wave. Then... there was another wave.
  - sam345 5y ago
    Accusing somebody of following a talking point seems needlessly provacative and ad-hominem, and not in the spirit of HN. Better to just give reasoned cited responses and leave it at that.
    - jjoonathan 5y ago
      I think it's important to discuss the points, but I also think it's important to discuss the game of "I'm not anti-vax or anti-mask, but here are a bunch of anti-mask and anti-vax talking points." It's popular, it's spreading, and I think it's important to call it out when one sees it.
disgruntledphd2 5y ago
> while we might have built new hospitals in a parallel universe, in this one we really don't want to saturate the beds (again). Unfortunately, while hospitals can be built, you can't train enough medical professionals to staff the hospital in two years. More generally, rather like nobody expects the Spanish inquisition, no health care system can cope with a global pandemic. We'd need to 10x health care capacity, most of which would sit unused for most of the time.

criticaltinker 5y ago

GP's statement contradicts the scientific literature - vaccination does reduce viral load of subsequent infection, and consequently reduces transmission [1]. However folks should be aware that immunity acquired through natural infection is robust and durable, and also has the same effect of reducing viral load and transmission [2]. It has been documented that people with asymptomatic infection will clear the virus quickly compared to those who are symptomatic [3]. Recent meta-analyses [4] and large population serological studies [5] have estimated the asymptomatic proportion lower bound to be at least ~33%, and the upper bound to be ~65% (even higher for young adults). Considering recent evidence that cases may be massively under-reported, the true asymptomatic proportion could be even higher than suggested [6]. Taken together, these results imply that a majority of the population has been already exposed to the virus, and either through natural infection or vaccination has acquired some degree of immunity that reduces the transmission of the virus. Analogous to antibiotic resistance, vaccine resistance can evolve if vaccines are used indiscriminately [7][8][9][10]. So the benefits of compulsory mass vaccination may not outweigh the risks of such a policy, given the current state of affairs. > so why all the fuss to force people to get vaccinated? It is an important question with tremendously complex factors that go beyond the expertise of most lay people. [1] Initial report of decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load after inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01316-7?origin=app https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01316-7?origin=ap... [2] Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2 https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37... [3] The Natural History and Transmission Potential of Asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666524720301725 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266652472... [4] The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976 https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976 [5] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y [6] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372030129X https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372... [7] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ [8] Can we predict the limits of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their phenotypic consequences? https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evoluti... [9] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016... [10] The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26302775/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26302775/