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Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across

Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across the US has been very, very low. We don’t make kids wear helmets everywhere they go, though it would be decidedly more efficacious from a safety perspective. It seems to me some relativity is in order.

firecall 5y ago
This is outdated information. Delta strain is worse - more dangerous for kids and those under 30.
- hcurtiss 5y ago
  More dangerous than what? Even if it were 200% more lethal, 2x a very small number is still a very small number.
  - shakna 5y ago
    Whilst I don't have the figures to specifically source, yesterday's daily pressing briefing for my area had the health minister saying that delta was 100x more lethal than the flu in children, or 1000%. That is not a very small number.
    - 2trill2spill 5y ago
      Your health Minister seems to be spreading misinformation.
      - shakna 5y ago
        The mortality rate for my state is 4% of all cases. [0] The mortality rate for the entire country is about 5.6% [1]. There has not been a single certified influenza death in Australia since 2020. [1] It certainly appears that my health minister was downplaying the difference, not playing it up. [0] https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-case-numbers-and-statistics https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavir... [1] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provis...
        hcurtiss 5y ago
        Excess mortality rates aren’t relevant at all to the lethality of the delta variant in children relative to prior strains. Overall mortality isn’t even asking the right question, and it’s a very poor proxy even for the lethality rate of SARS-COV-2 (contingent on pervasive testing). And that we’ve eliminated influenza deaths is no argument that influenza is no longer lethal.
        wk_end 5y ago
        Unless Australians are an order of magnitude more vulnerable to COVID than elsewhere in the world, those numbers are more the result of low test rates missing infections than anything else. In the US, the CDC estimates an actual mortality rate of 0.6%, compared to the ratio of cases/deaths of ~1.6%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
        shakna 5y ago
        Australia has had an order of magnitude fewer infections than elsewhere in the world. We have come close to eliminating its spread altogether several times, so it should come as no surprise that the proportion of deaths is higher than somewhere else that has failed to contain the illness.
        wk_end 5y ago
        How does that follow? How deadly a virus is for any given individual should be independent of how many other people got it (outside of situations where the health care system is overwhelmed and can't provide adequate care - but that'd make the numbers worse for the US, not better).
        shakna 5y ago
        If the virus is under better containment, those more likely to be infected, are more likely to be comorbid with other conditions. Thus death rates when looking at the entire length of the pandemic are likely to be higher. Delta is the first time Australia has seen widespread infection in healthy people.
- lotsofpulp 5y ago
  Source?
lamontcg 5y ago
If they fall down in the playground they don't carry that injury home and kill one of their parents with it.
- hcurtiss 5y ago
  The odds are overwhelmingly high they won’t with COVID either. Let’s not forget that the survival rate in all populations is well north of 90%. Parent age populations closer to 99%. Even higher if the parents are vaccinated.
- cfn 5y ago
  But their parents are (or can be) vaccinated, thus imune to the disease.
- nradov 5y ago
  The CDC estimates that the survival rate for the 18-49 age bracket (which accounts for most parents of young children) is 99.94%. And that's since the start of the pandemic without vaccination. For vaccinated parents now the survival rate is virtually 100%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
  - ansible 5y ago
    So, yeah, I guess the grandparents and older aunts / uncles they may be living with are fucked. But who cares about them?
    - nkohari 5y ago
      I really just don't understand the hyperventilation about this stuff. At this point, the vast majority of elderly people are fully vaccinated, and breakthrough cases -- especially those resulting in severe illness or death -- are extremely rare. The risk is nonzero, but living with zero risk is simply not a realistic goal. It never has been and never will be.
      - 5y ago
only_as_i_fall 5y ago
Isn't the concern that children act as a massive spread vector such that breakthrough cases in adults may still overwhelm hospital systems? A couple months ago I would have maybe agreed, but the delta variant seems to really through a wrench into this line of thinking.
- freewilly1040 5y ago
  Serious breakthrough cases remain rare, delta has not changed this

firecall 5y ago

This is outdated information. Delta strain is worse - more dangerous for kids and those under 30.

hcurtiss 5y ago
More dangerous than what? Even if it were 200% more lethal, 2x a very small number is still a very small number.
- shakna 5y ago
  Whilst I don't have the figures to specifically source, yesterday's daily pressing briefing for my area had the health minister saying that delta was 100x more lethal than the flu in children, or 1000%. That is not a very small number.
  - 2trill2spill 5y ago
    Your health Minister seems to be spreading misinformation.
    - shakna 5y ago
      The mortality rate for my state is 4% of all cases. [0] The mortality rate for the entire country is about 5.6% [1]. There has not been a single certified influenza death in Australia since 2020. [1] It certainly appears that my health minister was downplaying the difference, not playing it up. [0] https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-case-numbers-and-statistics https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavir... [1] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provis...
      - hcurtiss 5y ago
        Excess mortality rates aren’t relevant at all to the lethality of the delta variant in children relative to prior strains. Overall mortality isn’t even asking the right question, and it’s a very poor proxy even for the lethality rate of SARS-COV-2 (contingent on pervasive testing). And that we’ve eliminated influenza deaths is no argument that influenza is no longer lethal.
      - wk_end 5y ago
        Unless Australians are an order of magnitude more vulnerable to COVID than elsewhere in the world, those numbers are more the result of low test rates missing infections than anything else. In the US, the CDC estimates an actual mortality rate of 0.6%, compared to the ratio of cases/deaths of ~1.6%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
        shakna 5y ago
        Australia has had an order of magnitude fewer infections than elsewhere in the world. We have come close to eliminating its spread altogether several times, so it should come as no surprise that the proportion of deaths is higher than somewhere else that has failed to contain the illness.
        wk_end 5y ago
        How does that follow? How deadly a virus is for any given individual should be independent of how many other people got it (outside of situations where the health care system is overwhelmed and can't provide adequate care - but that'd make the numbers worse for the US, not better).
        shakna 5y ago
        If the virus is under better containment, those more likely to be infected, are more likely to be comorbid with other conditions. Thus death rates when looking at the entire length of the pandemic are likely to be higher. Delta is the first time Australia has seen widespread infection in healthy people.
lotsofpulp 5y ago
Source?

lamontcg 5y ago

If they fall down in the playground they don't carry that injury home and kill one of their parents with it.

hcurtiss 5y ago
The odds are overwhelmingly high they won’t with COVID either. Let’s not forget that the survival rate in all populations is well north of 90%. Parent age populations closer to 99%. Even higher if the parents are vaccinated.
cfn 5y ago
But their parents are (or can be) vaccinated, thus imune to the disease.
nradov 5y ago
The CDC estimates that the survival rate for the 18-49 age bracket (which accounts for most parents of young children) is 99.94%. And that's since the start of the pandemic without vaccination. For vaccinated parents now the survival rate is virtually 100%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
- ansible 5y ago
  So, yeah, I guess the grandparents and older aunts / uncles they may be living with are fucked. But who cares about them?
  - nkohari 5y ago
    I really just don't understand the hyperventilation about this stuff. At this point, the vast majority of elderly people are fully vaccinated, and breakthrough cases -- especially those resulting in severe illness or death -- are extremely rare. The risk is nonzero, but living with zero risk is simply not a realistic goal. It never has been and never will be.
    - 5y ago

only_as_i_fall 5y ago

Isn't the concern that children act as a massive spread vector such that breakthrough cases in adults may still overwhelm hospital systems? A couple months ago I would have maybe agreed, but the delta variant seems to really through a wrench into this line of thinking.

freewilly1040 5y ago
Serious breakthrough cases remain rare, delta has not changed this