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I used the share this view, but I no longer believe it. The complexity is just in different places. Look at a Tesla, it’s an incredibly complex machine. The ICE

I used the share this view, but I no longer believe it. The complexity is just in different places. Look at a Tesla, it’s an incredibly complex machine. The ICE is effectively a solved problem. OTOH this is their reason. Japan needs to retool ASAP. They’re the most technologically advanced country in the world though and they have the best process management, so they can do it.

SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
Automotive EE here. Whoever is saying electric vehicles has reduced complexity has no idea what they are taking about. Literally none. It’s complete fantasy. The THEORY you could make an EV less complex is probably true, but the REALITY is not. There isn’t a single EV in the world today that is less complex than it’s non-EV relative. Chrysler and GM EV and HEV specially I’ve worked on both have entirely separate bus systems just for the power train, this is on top of the already existing PT bus that the ICE vehicles all have. The battery heater, the battery pump/cooler, the multiple charging systems, the additions to the transmissions systems, the ABS systems with ICE that handle stability control were already complex, now more so because they are entirely new devices that bring in regenerative braking and efficiency. All the software has changed around target torques/rpm/target gear for mileage. There is no other brand that defies my assertion. Literally everything in an EV is more complex. Didn’t have to be, but is. Edit: lol first hand knowledge of complex systems, physical layout, mounting, diagnostics, wiring, their signals and data patterns… nope, wrong! Classic HN
- kongolongo 5y ago
  Agreed people tend to fixate on the engine/motor, which might be less complex (even that's debatable), but the rest of the system supporting that motor is complex in it's own right.
- goodpoint 5y ago
  You are almost being downvoted to oblivion. HN is really becoming 4chan.
  - dang 5y ago
    Please don't break the site guidelines. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Particularly because: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=corrective%20upvote%20garbage&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
- avianlyric 5y ago
  > Edit: lol first hand knowledge of complex systems, physical layout, mounting, diagnostics, wiring, their signals and data patterns… nope, wrong! Classic HN I imagine you’re getting down votes because your comment seems to only consider complexity in EV’s and doesn’t talk about the complexity found in ICE vehicles. If you take an existing ICE platform and adapt it for EV’s of course it’s going to end up more complex from a control perspective. You’ve taken the existing complexity of the ICE platform and just strapped all the EV stuff onto the side. Perhaps if you could talk about the mechanical complexity found in the ICE powertrain and compare the to an EV you might get a better response. The number of high load mechanical components found in an ICE powertrain is huge. Components that are forced to operate under an extremely wide range of temperatures and loads, which just don’t exist in EVs. When ICE cars fail it’s almost certainly a mechanical failure. Software based control systems generally don’t fail, they either work or they don’t. You don’t get “wear” in software. Now control systems mistakes can result unnecessary wear in mechanical parts, and premature failure. But having fewer mechanical parts significantly reduces the surface area for control errors.
  - SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
    > doesn’t talk about the complexity found in ICE vehicles What part of “There isn’t a single EV in the world today that is less complex than it’s non-EV relative.” doesn’t cover that it’s a relative difference? I don’t care about complexity of ICE. That’s our baseline. There isn’t a single system in EVs that is less complex. Period. You won’t break a fuel pump in a full EV, but will in a hybrid or plug in hybrid, and you’ll break the battery pump in a full EV… so where are you better off there? If you want to change the topic to reliability, we scrap thousands of tons of electric motors. Sometimes because the connection to the battery is bad (source and drain terminals). Sometimes there is nothing wrong with them, but the dealer fails to diagnose issues like they can with ICE components, most of the time we have no idea what is wrong with them. Having fewer mechanical parts is better, sure, ok, but do you realize how many more parts are added to EV systems? You are thinking in terms of classic vehicle design practices. What you are failing to understand, being an outsider, is that we used to design things the good/hard way because they had to last for 60,000 miles without major replacements… now… since as you write there is a lot more software, we design rough enough to get it on to the storage lot awaiting shipping, we get it refined enough by the time the dealers get them, and we keep refining software updates over the year. I have a 2021 company vehicle, the Linux-based radio completely resets going down the road probably once every 100 miles. It’s a completely known issue and the supplier will probably push a fix in 6 months. No one cares. This would have been inexcusable years ago. Right, software doesn’t wear. But it has a lot more bugs and bullshit. You don’t develop new issues years later - oh wait, yes, we do, all the time. Mechanical parts have a lineage and a hundred years of how to make an x or y, i can replace almost any part and we know approximately when they will fail. Software, relatively the Wild West. This is why they want OTA updates so badly. To finish them in your driveway. If my life depended on a vehicle, I’d take a 2014 Jeep Wrangler (or similar decontented vehicle) over any 2021 vehicle by any mfg, that’s ICE or not. But double true that I wouldn’t trust my life on an EV in 2021. I own an EV (plug in hybrid and a often use a full electric) and like them. But I don’t trust them because I’ve seen the sausage being made.
adventured 5y ago
> Look at a Tesla, it’s an incredibly complex machine. Tesla's EVs are overly complex, overly sophisticated. That doesn't need to be the case. Tesla adds enormous amounts of system and software complexity to try to be on the bleeding edge of supposed innovation. Tesla is selling that premise, that brand/image. If you remove it, people won't desire their cars as much, and certainly not at Tesla's price point. You can make a far less complex, lower cost, 'dumb' EV. China is doing it right now and selling a lot of them. What'll you'll see out of places like China over the next few decades, are hyper mass produced, high reliability, low cost, low complexity EVs that don't chase the cutting edge. China isn't yet great on reliability in auto manufacturing, they will be however if you iterate them forward in time.
conjecTech 5y ago
I'd be curious to hear where you think all of that complexity has moved. While ICE are definitely more reliable these days than they were 50 years ago, I don't think the major issue is with them directly, but with the sheer amount of ancillary components they imply - ie belts, alternator, fuel injectors, spark plugs, transmission, radiator, starter motor, starter battery, etc. Those are the source of the vast majority of problems and maintenance for ICE cars. EVs need none of them. For electric vehicles, I'd view the cooling system as the largest source of complexity. And I think those will simplify as batteries become better designed (lower internal resistance from tabless for instance), more dense and less expensive. I think it's important not to conflate Tesla and electric vehicles. They are building luxury vehicles that have the added complexity and added unreliability that implies.
pezezin 5y ago
Most technologically advanced country in the world??? Hahaha, that's a good one! Sure, hankos, fax machines and piles of hand-written paperwork are the pinnacle of technology. Have you ever been to Japan, or are you just going by the stereotype? Disclaimer: living in Japan for three years.

SV_BubbleTime 5y ago

Automotive EE here. Whoever is saying electric vehicles has reduced complexity has no idea what they are taking about. Literally none. It’s complete fantasy. The THEORY you could make an EV less complex is probably true, but the REALITY is not. There isn’t a single EV in the world today that is less complex than it’s non-EV relative. Chrysler and GM EV and HEV specially I’ve worked on both have entirely separate bus systems just for the power train, this is on top of the already existing PT bus that the ICE vehicles all have. The battery heater, the battery pump/cooler, the multiple charging systems, the additions to the transmissions systems, the ABS systems with ICE that handle stability control were already complex, now more so because they are entirely new devices that bring in regenerative braking and efficiency. All the software has changed around target torques/rpm/target gear for mileage. There is no other brand that defies my assertion. Literally everything in an EV is more complex. Didn’t have to be, but is. Edit: lol first hand knowledge of complex systems, physical layout, mounting, diagnostics, wiring, their signals and data patterns… nope, wrong! Classic HN

kongolongo 5y ago
Agreed people tend to fixate on the engine/motor, which might be less complex (even that's debatable), but the rest of the system supporting that motor is complex in it's own right.
goodpoint 5y ago
You are almost being downvoted to oblivion. HN is really becoming 4chan.
- dang 5y ago
  Please don't break the site guidelines. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Particularly because: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=corrective%20upvote%20garbage&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
avianlyric 5y ago
> Edit: lol first hand knowledge of complex systems, physical layout, mounting, diagnostics, wiring, their signals and data patterns… nope, wrong! Classic HN I imagine you’re getting down votes because your comment seems to only consider complexity in EV’s and doesn’t talk about the complexity found in ICE vehicles. If you take an existing ICE platform and adapt it for EV’s of course it’s going to end up more complex from a control perspective. You’ve taken the existing complexity of the ICE platform and just strapped all the EV stuff onto the side. Perhaps if you could talk about the mechanical complexity found in the ICE powertrain and compare the to an EV you might get a better response. The number of high load mechanical components found in an ICE powertrain is huge. Components that are forced to operate under an extremely wide range of temperatures and loads, which just don’t exist in EVs. When ICE cars fail it’s almost certainly a mechanical failure. Software based control systems generally don’t fail, they either work or they don’t. You don’t get “wear” in software. Now control systems mistakes can result unnecessary wear in mechanical parts, and premature failure. But having fewer mechanical parts significantly reduces the surface area for control errors.
- SV_BubbleTime 5y ago
  > doesn’t talk about the complexity found in ICE vehicles What part of “There isn’t a single EV in the world today that is less complex than it’s non-EV relative.” doesn’t cover that it’s a relative difference? I don’t care about complexity of ICE. That’s our baseline. There isn’t a single system in EVs that is less complex. Period. You won’t break a fuel pump in a full EV, but will in a hybrid or plug in hybrid, and you’ll break the battery pump in a full EV… so where are you better off there? If you want to change the topic to reliability, we scrap thousands of tons of electric motors. Sometimes because the connection to the battery is bad (source and drain terminals). Sometimes there is nothing wrong with them, but the dealer fails to diagnose issues like they can with ICE components, most of the time we have no idea what is wrong with them. Having fewer mechanical parts is better, sure, ok, but do you realize how many more parts are added to EV systems? You are thinking in terms of classic vehicle design practices. What you are failing to understand, being an outsider, is that we used to design things the good/hard way because they had to last for 60,000 miles without major replacements… now… since as you write there is a lot more software, we design rough enough to get it on to the storage lot awaiting shipping, we get it refined enough by the time the dealers get them, and we keep refining software updates over the year. I have a 2021 company vehicle, the Linux-based radio completely resets going down the road probably once every 100 miles. It’s a completely known issue and the supplier will probably push a fix in 6 months. No one cares. This would have been inexcusable years ago. Right, software doesn’t wear. But it has a lot more bugs and bullshit. You don’t develop new issues years later - oh wait, yes, we do, all the time. Mechanical parts have a lineage and a hundred years of how to make an x or y, i can replace almost any part and we know approximately when they will fail. Software, relatively the Wild West. This is why they want OTA updates so badly. To finish them in your driveway. If my life depended on a vehicle, I’d take a 2014 Jeep Wrangler (or similar decontented vehicle) over any 2021 vehicle by any mfg, that’s ICE or not. But double true that I wouldn’t trust my life on an EV in 2021. I own an EV (plug in hybrid and a often use a full electric) and like them. But I don’t trust them because I’ve seen the sausage being made.

adventured 5y ago

> Look at a Tesla, it’s an incredibly complex machine. Tesla's EVs are overly complex, overly sophisticated. That doesn't need to be the case. Tesla adds enormous amounts of system and software complexity to try to be on the bleeding edge of supposed innovation. Tesla is selling that premise, that brand/image. If you remove it, people won't desire their cars as much, and certainly not at Tesla's price point. You can make a far less complex, lower cost, 'dumb' EV. China is doing it right now and selling a lot of them. What'll you'll see out of places like China over the next few decades, are hyper mass produced, high reliability, low cost, low complexity EVs that don't chase the cutting edge. China isn't yet great on reliability in auto manufacturing, they will be however if you iterate them forward in time.

conjecTech 5y ago

I'd be curious to hear where you think all of that complexity has moved. While ICE are definitely more reliable these days than they were 50 years ago, I don't think the major issue is with them directly, but with the sheer amount of ancillary components they imply - ie belts, alternator, fuel injectors, spark plugs, transmission, radiator, starter motor, starter battery, etc. Those are the source of the vast majority of problems and maintenance for ICE cars. EVs need none of them. For electric vehicles, I'd view the cooling system as the largest source of complexity. And I think those will simplify as batteries become better designed (lower internal resistance from tabless for instance), more dense and less expensive. I think it's important not to conflate Tesla and electric vehicles. They are building luxury vehicles that have the added complexity and added unreliability that implies.

pezezin 5y ago

Most technologically advanced country in the world??? Hahaha, that's a good one! Sure, hankos, fax machines and piles of hand-written paperwork are the pinnacle of technology. Have you ever been to Japan, or are you just going by the stereotype? Disclaimer: living in Japan for three years.