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This is silly. The USD's prominence in world trade goes beyond what the US is doing, let alone with that US federal government is doing. And moribund governmen

This is silly. The USD's prominence in world trade goes beyond what the US is doing, let alone with that US federal government is doing. And moribund governments have been demonstrated to old on for centuries. Unwinding a system where small states have worked hard to hoard US reserves for stability will take a while to happen. In other matters, the incompetence of the US is absolutely priced in already, like budgets for public transit :/. Also Afghanistan is a simmering 20 year old failure. The fact that the kleptocracy we propped up was completely unstable to stand on its own two feet is more reason to exit, not less. Yes, recognizing that fact rather than partaking in more fantasy land is stupid, but expected for our incompetent money-guzzling military who didn't want to leave, but couldn't face its own shame in arguing we had to leave more slowly because we had failed so miserably.

cblconfederate 5y ago
afghanistan is unexpectedly bad optics, but imho the truth is nobody cares about afghanistan beyond appearances, sadly. But the COVID failure was much more important, visible and pretty stark. The US had ample time and warning from european countries to show some real leadership. They should have gone with what Australia did, and the rest of the developed world would follow their example. Instead it was a string of bad advice that makes one wonder what will happen in the next pandemic.
- Ericson2314 5y ago
  Agreed re Afganistan But re COVID people were already forgetting how stupid we were simply because we bought more vaccines. Now the Delta paranoia is putting other things back in the spotlight, but I suspect that won't last either.
- UncleOxidant 5y ago
  Agreed. Afghanistan is one of the few things at this point that pretty much everyone in the US agrees about: the need to get out. The bad optics will be forgotten in a month or so if not less. COVID, on the other hand is apocalyptic in the original greek sense of the word (revealing something that was hidden under the surface): It's revealed huge problems in the US not the least of which is an epistemic gap that seems unbridgeable.
arielweisberg 5y ago
Mostly agree. Failure is also not binary. We could fail a lot harder and it would hurt a lot more!
tomp 5y ago
> Also Afghanistan is a simmering 20 year old failure. Nice strawman. Leaving Afghanistan (to fail) has been a long time coming. Obama wanted to do it, Trump wanted to do it, Biden decided to pull/had to pull/tripped over the cord. The massive failure here isn't the fall of Afghanistan, it's the botched evacuation attempt. Even Balaji says: "Afganistan exit".. Leaving weapons and people to fall into enemy hands? I mean, come on...
- MichaelGroves 5y ago
  Read the last century of history of Afghanistan and it becomes clear that the war was lost before it ever began. It was not just the Soviets before America that failed to reform the ways of rural Afghanis. The Soviets came into Afghanistan in large part because the Afghani PDPA was also failing to do the same. Before the PDPA took power from Daoud in the Saur Revolution, Daoud was himself trying and failing to impose progressive reform on the same people. And preceding Daoud was Mohammed Zahir Shah, also a progressive reformer, who failed to make much of any lasting impact despite forty years of good effort. Zahir came to power after his father, Nadir Shah was assassinated; Nadir Shah had himself acquired power in the first place by putting down a rebellion of Afghani tribesmen, but obviously that had no lasting impact either. And that rebellion was itself precipitated by Amanullah Khan's failed efforts to reform Afghanistan. The arrogance of Americans to think their invasion would succeed where previous invasions and native reformers had failed is staggering. Even if America were to fight for reform for forty years, as Zahir Shah did, why should anybody believe it would make a lasting difference? 20 years made no lasting difference, and another 20 wouldn't either. You can suppress afghani tribesmen, you can send their children to universities and crush those who openly oppose you, but as soon as you leave (and you will eventually leave) they will go right back to the way they prefer to live. This has been demonstrated again and again.
  - anonymoushn 5y ago
    This is an informative comment, but did you reply to the wrong parent comment?
    - 5y ago

cblconfederate 5y ago

afghanistan is unexpectedly bad optics, but imho the truth is nobody cares about afghanistan beyond appearances, sadly. But the COVID failure was much more important, visible and pretty stark. The US had ample time and warning from european countries to show some real leadership. They should have gone with what Australia did, and the rest of the developed world would follow their example. Instead it was a string of bad advice that makes one wonder what will happen in the next pandemic.

Ericson2314 5y ago
Agreed re Afganistan But re COVID people were already forgetting how stupid we were simply because we bought more vaccines. Now the Delta paranoia is putting other things back in the spotlight, but I suspect that won't last either.
UncleOxidant 5y ago
Agreed. Afghanistan is one of the few things at this point that pretty much everyone in the US agrees about: the need to get out. The bad optics will be forgotten in a month or so if not less. COVID, on the other hand is apocalyptic in the original greek sense of the word (revealing something that was hidden under the surface): It's revealed huge problems in the US not the least of which is an epistemic gap that seems unbridgeable.

arielweisberg 5y ago

Mostly agree. Failure is also not binary. We could fail a lot harder and it would hurt a lot more!

tomp 5y ago

> Also Afghanistan is a simmering 20 year old failure. Nice strawman. Leaving Afghanistan (to fail) has been a long time coming. Obama wanted to do it, Trump wanted to do it, Biden decided to pull/had to pull/tripped over the cord. The massive failure here isn't the fall of Afghanistan, it's the botched evacuation attempt. Even Balaji says: "Afganistan exit".. Leaving weapons and people to fall into enemy hands? I mean, come on...

MichaelGroves 5y ago
Read the last century of history of Afghanistan and it becomes clear that the war was lost before it ever began. It was not just the Soviets before America that failed to reform the ways of rural Afghanis. The Soviets came into Afghanistan in large part because the Afghani PDPA was also failing to do the same. Before the PDPA took power from Daoud in the Saur Revolution, Daoud was himself trying and failing to impose progressive reform on the same people. And preceding Daoud was Mohammed Zahir Shah, also a progressive reformer, who failed to make much of any lasting impact despite forty years of good effort. Zahir came to power after his father, Nadir Shah was assassinated; Nadir Shah had himself acquired power in the first place by putting down a rebellion of Afghani tribesmen, but obviously that had no lasting impact either. And that rebellion was itself precipitated by Amanullah Khan's failed efforts to reform Afghanistan. The arrogance of Americans to think their invasion would succeed where previous invasions and native reformers had failed is staggering. Even if America were to fight for reform for forty years, as Zahir Shah did, why should anybody believe it would make a lasting difference? 20 years made no lasting difference, and another 20 wouldn't either. You can suppress afghani tribesmen, you can send their children to universities and crush those who openly oppose you, but as soon as you leave (and you will eventually leave) they will go right back to the way they prefer to live. This has been demonstrated again and again.
- anonymoushn 5y ago
  This is an informative comment, but did you reply to the wrong parent comment?
  - 5y ago