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I like Musk, and I've been following his progress since 2011. I always thought he seemed very intelligent and seemed to really understand what he was doing.

I like Musk, and I've been following his progress since 2011. I always thought he seemed very intelligent and seemed to really understand what he was doing. However I have to agree with the person you are replying to. There has been the sort of myth going around that making rockets is hard. It used to be hard... 50 years ago. That is literally the technology Musk has been using for the last 20 years: 50 year old technology (and yes that includes reusability). He has just been doing it cheaper, which there was no incentive for anyone to do before because it wasn't a free market. The reusable stuff is still misunderstood by most people too. Musk is losing money because of the reusability of his rockets. If he had never pursued reusability he would have made far, far more money from his launch business. Only now, after 10 years, are his reusable rockets just starting to break even with the cost of an expendable rocket (after reuse not before). He is pursuing reusability because it is his passion project, not because there is any money to be made from it. Since Musk, another 4 private companies have reached orbit, or will reach orbit this year (Firefly, Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, and Virgin Orbit). All of them took almost exactly 6 years from founding to orbit, just like Musk did. Furthermore, if you have been following closely, you would have seen the huge and humiliating mess ups he had with Tesla where he literally flushed billions and billions of dollars down the toilet. Any COO from another company would have had no problems setting up these manufacturing facilities without trouble, but Musk though he was smarter than everyone else and proved it was the other way around when it came to a competitive business like auto manufacturing. The man has vision, but this whole AI thing is just Musk getting lost in his own marketing.

cryptoz 5y ago
I'm no Musk fan but this > If he had never pursued reusability he would have made far, far more money from his launch business. Strikes me as short term thinking and not true, also. The plan is to sell tickets at $400,000 each to get to Mars. There doesn't seem to be any way to achieve that without reusability. The money to be made from founding the first Mars colony supplied with reusable rockets completely dwarfs some random launch provider on Earth. SpaceX never was and never will be a simple launch provider. If that is your lens then you are missing the company goals of 1M people living on Mars.
- mrjangles 5y ago
  First, no one denies that reusability is still not profitable. This includes Musk himself and heads of all the other rocket companies who have all made it clear they aren't pursing it because these is simply no business case for it. At best maybe recovering the fairings or engines could be profitable for now. > The plan is to sell tickets at $400,000 each to get to Mars. His Starship is set to hold 40 people on the trip to mars. That would mean he earns 16 million per Starship sent to mars. Each Starship takes about 8 launches to fully fuel. He currently sells 1 regular launch for 50 million each, so your numbers just don't add up. This isn't a money making scheme. In fact, Musk would be the first person to admit he isn't trying to make money by sending people to Mars. This is his passion project. In fact, the whole reason he created his Starlink business was to pay for his efforts to colonize Mars.
  - fogof 5y ago
    > First, no one denies that reusability is still not profitable. This includes Musk himself and heads of all the other rocket companies who have all made it clear they aren't pursing it because these is simply no business case for it. What? Here is "Musk himself" saying in a tweet that Falcon 9 only needs to be reusable 3 times to make sense economically. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295883862380294144?s=20 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295883862380294144?s=20
    - mrjangles 5y ago
      Oh ok, thanks for that. The last I had heard was that it would take 10 launches to break even. It seems spaceX has been working very hard making refurbishing the boosters cheaper and cheaper over the last few years.
  - kolinko 5y ago
    With reusability he can get down to as low as 2mil per launch. So even with 8 launches for refuelling, this is the correct ballpark.
  - panick21 5y ago
notJim 5y ago
> Furthermore, if you have been following closely, you would have seen the huge and humiliating mess ups he had with Tesla where he literally flushed billions and billions of dollars down the toilet. What is this in reference to?
- iloveluce 5y ago
  All those manufacturing woes that happened after Elon tried to automate everything in the manufacturing process https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-admits-humans-are-sometimes-superior-to-robots.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-admits-humans-are-...
  - ayrkm 5y ago
    That is called taking risk and pushing the limit. If it does not work, admit and learn then move on.
    - itsoktocry 5y ago
      >That is called taking risk and pushing the limit Legacy manufacturers have far more automated systems building far more complicated cars. What was "pushed to the limit"?
tigershark 5y ago
SpaceX created the only full flow engine in history that was actually used in a flight. And they are well on track on the first fully rapid reusable rocket twice as powerful as the Saturn 5.
jfoster 5y ago
> There has been the sort of myth going around that making rockets is hard. It used to be hard... 50 years ago. For something that used to be hard, the very well-funded companies in that area besides SpaceX seem to be having a hell of a time achieving anything even remotely near comparable performance.
nixarn 5y ago
> Furthermore, if you have been following closely, you would have seen the huge and humiliating mess ups he had with Tesla where he literally flushed billions and billions of dollars down the toilet. I have been following it closely since 2012. Not sure where he flushed the money down the toilet? And with that he still grew the company well. Without Elon Tesla would never have become the 666B company that is today. > Since Musk, another 4 private companies have reached orbit, or will reach orbit this year (Firefly, Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, and Virgin Orbit) Rocket Lab was founded in 2006 and reached orbit in 2018 (and failed in 2020)? Virgin Orbit's vehicle LauncherOne was started in 2007 (under Virgin Galactic) began operations in 2021. And we'll see how Firefly and Relativity Space succeeds with their launches.
- itsoktocry 5y ago
  >I have been following it closely since 2012. Not sure where he flushed the money down the toilet? You have been following for that long and don't know the company continues to burn cash? That they said they'd never raise money again, and then raised money about 6 times? That if it wasn't for subsidies and funky accounting there is no profit?
  - nixarn 5y ago
    Tesla has had their fair share of hard times. And some mornings have been horrible after having read some Elon tweets xD When it comes to raising cash, things change, I remember once cash raise happened immediately after their value had increased much in a short interval, so it made sense to raise. And looking back, with the company being worth 666B now, they've done a lot of right calls, but of course some wrong ones as well. And it's a myth that Tesla doesn't do any profit. For example last quarter Tesla got around 354M in regulatory credits (this is what the anti-tesla crowd likes to point out) but the net income was 1.14B. And besides the regulatory credit should be counted, not like the oil industry hasn't had it's insane amount of subsides over the years.
    - itsoktocry 5y ago
      >so it made sense to raise It totally makes sense, I agree. Just seems odd to say we won't, and then do, repeatedly. >And it's a myth that Tesla doesn't do any profit. For example last quarter Tesla got around 354M in regulatory credits (this is what the anti-tesla crowd likes to point out) but the net income was 1.14B. It's only a myth if you don't actually examine the underlying accounting. Regulatory credits, realizing deferred revenue on FSD (which doesn't exist), expanding the accounts payable, cutting R&D, bitcoin speculation... All of these things affect the income statement in a way that pumps income that may or may not even be sustainable. All so people will say "look, profits!" Are they marginally profitable now? Maybe, but that's nothing to brag about at a market cap of over half a trillion dollars. >not like the oil industry hasn't had it's insane amount of subsides over the years. So, what's your point here? Did I say oil companies deserve subsidies? Am I looking at the financials of Exxon? Being as how Tesla vehicles have tires, plastics, a supply chain...they also benefit from oil subsidies. What does this have to do with anything?
loceng 5y ago
It's organization that's hard, pulling the trigger trusting your decisions are correct, Musk seems to excel at this; more important are the Boards of Directors and leadership hierarchy that trust his process enough, and arguably he's right enough more than he's wrong.
mmustapic 5y ago
> Musk is losing money because of the reusability of his rockets. If he had never pursued reusability he would have made far, far more money from his launch business. Only now, after 10 years, are his reusable rockets just starting to break even with the cost of an expendable rocket (after reuse not before). He is pursuing reusability because it is his passion project, not because there is any money to be made from it. Spacex can launch more rockets per year because they don't need to keep building a first stage. That's how they could launch almost 2k Starlink satellites already. If you look at the statistics, most of the launches for 2020 and 2021 have been on reused boosters.
inglor_cz 5y ago
"and yes that includes reusability" I think this is where you go astray. Reusable rockets aren't old technology. In fact, they were considered so impractical and complicated that none of the big players even tried to develop one. In fact, even after SpaceX landed their first boosters succesfully, participants of a panel discussion organized by at an American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Forum on Propulsion rejected the idea as being market-unjustified: https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/expendable-rocket-builders-cast-doubt-on-viability-of-reusable-rockets/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/expendable-rocket-bu...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

cryptoz 5y ago

I'm no Musk fan but this > If he had never pursued reusability he would have made far, far more money from his launch business. Strikes me as short term thinking and not true, also. The plan is to sell tickets at $400,000 each to get to Mars. There doesn't seem to be any way to achieve that without reusability. The money to be made from founding the first Mars colony supplied with reusable rockets completely dwarfs some random launch provider on Earth. SpaceX never was and never will be a simple launch provider. If that is your lens then you are missing the company goals of 1M people living on Mars.

mrjangles 5y ago
First, no one denies that reusability is still not profitable. This includes Musk himself and heads of all the other rocket companies who have all made it clear they aren't pursing it because these is simply no business case for it. At best maybe recovering the fairings or engines could be profitable for now. > The plan is to sell tickets at $400,000 each to get to Mars. His Starship is set to hold 40 people on the trip to mars. That would mean he earns 16 million per Starship sent to mars. Each Starship takes about 8 launches to fully fuel. He currently sells 1 regular launch for 50 million each, so your numbers just don't add up. This isn't a money making scheme. In fact, Musk would be the first person to admit he isn't trying to make money by sending people to Mars. This is his passion project. In fact, the whole reason he created his Starlink business was to pay for his efforts to colonize Mars.
- fogof 5y ago
  > First, no one denies that reusability is still not profitable. This includes Musk himself and heads of all the other rocket companies who have all made it clear they aren't pursing it because these is simply no business case for it. What? Here is "Musk himself" saying in a tweet that Falcon 9 only needs to be reusable 3 times to make sense economically. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295883862380294144?s=20 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1295883862380294144?s=20
  - mrjangles 5y ago
    Oh ok, thanks for that. The last I had heard was that it would take 10 launches to break even. It seems spaceX has been working very hard making refurbishing the boosters cheaper and cheaper over the last few years.
- kolinko 5y ago
  With reusability he can get down to as low as 2mil per launch. So even with 8 launches for refuelling, this is the correct ballpark.
- panick21 5y ago

notJim 5y ago

iloveluce 5y ago
All those manufacturing woes that happened after Elon tried to automate everything in the manufacturing process https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-admits-humans-are-sometimes-superior-to-robots.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-admits-humans-are-...
- ayrkm 5y ago
  That is called taking risk and pushing the limit. If it does not work, admit and learn then move on.
  - itsoktocry 5y ago
    >That is called taking risk and pushing the limit Legacy manufacturers have far more automated systems building far more complicated cars. What was "pushed to the limit"?

tigershark 5y ago

SpaceX created the only full flow engine in history that was actually used in a flight. And they are well on track on the first fully rapid reusable rocket twice as powerful as the Saturn 5.

jfoster 5y ago

> There has been the sort of myth going around that making rockets is hard. It used to be hard... 50 years ago. For something that used to be hard, the very well-funded companies in that area besides SpaceX seem to be having a hell of a time achieving anything even remotely near comparable performance.

nixarn 5y ago

> Furthermore, if you have been following closely, you would have seen the huge and humiliating mess ups he had with Tesla where he literally flushed billions and billions of dollars down the toilet. I have been following it closely since 2012. Not sure where he flushed the money down the toilet? And with that he still grew the company well. Without Elon Tesla would never have become the 666B company that is today. > Since Musk, another 4 private companies have reached orbit, or will reach orbit this year (Firefly, Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, and Virgin Orbit) Rocket Lab was founded in 2006 and reached orbit in 2018 (and failed in 2020)? Virgin Orbit's vehicle LauncherOne was started in 2007 (under Virgin Galactic) began operations in 2021. And we'll see how Firefly and Relativity Space succeeds with their launches.

itsoktocry 5y ago
>I have been following it closely since 2012. Not sure where he flushed the money down the toilet? You have been following for that long and don't know the company continues to burn cash? That they said they'd never raise money again, and then raised money about 6 times? That if it wasn't for subsidies and funky accounting there is no profit?
- nixarn 5y ago
  Tesla has had their fair share of hard times. And some mornings have been horrible after having read some Elon tweets xD When it comes to raising cash, things change, I remember once cash raise happened immediately after their value had increased much in a short interval, so it made sense to raise. And looking back, with the company being worth 666B now, they've done a lot of right calls, but of course some wrong ones as well. And it's a myth that Tesla doesn't do any profit. For example last quarter Tesla got around 354M in regulatory credits (this is what the anti-tesla crowd likes to point out) but the net income was 1.14B. And besides the regulatory credit should be counted, not like the oil industry hasn't had it's insane amount of subsides over the years.
  - itsoktocry 5y ago
    >so it made sense to raise It totally makes sense, I agree. Just seems odd to say we won't, and then do, repeatedly. >And it's a myth that Tesla doesn't do any profit. For example last quarter Tesla got around 354M in regulatory credits (this is what the anti-tesla crowd likes to point out) but the net income was 1.14B. It's only a myth if you don't actually examine the underlying accounting. Regulatory credits, realizing deferred revenue on FSD (which doesn't exist), expanding the accounts payable, cutting R&D, bitcoin speculation... All of these things affect the income statement in a way that pumps income that may or may not even be sustainable. All so people will say "look, profits!" Are they marginally profitable now? Maybe, but that's nothing to brag about at a market cap of over half a trillion dollars. >not like the oil industry hasn't had it's insane amount of subsides over the years. So, what's your point here? Did I say oil companies deserve subsidies? Am I looking at the financials of Exxon? Being as how Tesla vehicles have tires, plastics, a supply chain...they also benefit from oil subsidies. What does this have to do with anything?

loceng 5y ago

It's organization that's hard, pulling the trigger trusting your decisions are correct, Musk seems to excel at this; more important are the Boards of Directors and leadership hierarchy that trust his process enough, and arguably he's right enough more than he's wrong.

mmustapic 5y ago

> Musk is losing money because of the reusability of his rockets. If he had never pursued reusability he would have made far, far more money from his launch business. Only now, after 10 years, are his reusable rockets just starting to break even with the cost of an expendable rocket (after reuse not before). He is pursuing reusability because it is his passion project, not because there is any money to be made from it. Spacex can launch more rockets per year because they don't need to keep building a first stage. That's how they could launch almost 2k Starlink satellites already. If you look at the statistics, most of the launches for 2020 and 2021 have been on reused boosters.

inglor_cz 5y ago

"and yes that includes reusability" I think this is where you go astray. Reusable rockets aren't old technology. In fact, they were considered so impractical and complicated that none of the big players even tried to develop one. In fact, even after SpaceX landed their first boosters succesfully, participants of a panel discussion organized by at an American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Forum on Propulsion rejected the idea as being market-unjustified: https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/expendable-rocket-builders-cast-doubt-on-viability-of-reusable-rockets/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/expendable-rocket-bu...

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]