4 ms·

New SARS-CoV-2 variants have changed the pandemic. What will the virus do next?

97 points by lnyan 5y ago

finallyatlast 5y ago
Ah bless you - another COVID-19 fear porn article within 24 hours, this time with the nouveau storyline introduction that takes up 80% of the content before it gets to the point. Thank you OP, we couldn't have done it with you.
jjtheblunt 5y ago
How is the progression of SARS-CoV-2 different from that of every other endemic virus, and how have our vaccine distributions affected its evolution? Very neat article. For instance, are there other viruses which were devastating when they first hit a species, only to evolve to less devastating but eternal as the species collectively gets perhaps not herd immunity but herd resistance?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- addicted 5y ago
  Isn’t this article basically discussing that? Looking at how other viruses have behaved and trying to analyze how COVID-19 may also potentially behave going forward, if it were to take the route of those other viruses?
  - jjtheblunt 5y ago
    Yes, definitely I should have worded my comment more clearly.
- crazydoggers 5y ago
  Viral evolution is one of the primary factors around pretty much all virus progression and disease. It’s a major study in the field of epidemiology. Given that there’s still a lack of belief of evolution in the general public (polls put it around 40-50% in US) it’s not surprising that it’s not more talked about in the media. But in the scientific and medical community it was not even a question that the virus was going to evolve through multiple strains. Viral evolution is why we have yearly flu shots rather than 1 to cover a lifetime. Its also why HIV has been so hard to create a vaccine for. HIV is able to handle lots of mutations and still function, so it means there’s a multitude of strains. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_evolution https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_evolution
  - telotortium 5y ago
    > Given that there’s still a lack of belief of evolution in the general public (polls put it around 40-50% in US) it’s not surprising that it’s not more talked about in the media. Lol - the intersection of people working in the media (especially mainstream media) and creationists is virtually the null set.
    - crazydoggers 5y ago
      If 50% of your market is offended by it you won’t talk about it. For media that caters to the other 50% it’s still a complex subject for media sound bites. Also you don’t have to be a “creationist” to not believe, although I guess it depends on that definition. But creationist makes it sound like it’s a tiny minority extremist group. Year after year multiple studies put non belief of evolution at at least 40%. I can almost guarantee a significant percentage of the media are likewise skeptical or non believers of evolution (they may be rather reserved and personal about it, but still effect their judgement or assessment of reporting on the topic)
  - heartbreak 5y ago
    I don’t think “viral evolution” is a correct way to describe mutations during viral replication.
    - crazydoggers 5y ago
      That doesn’t even make sense. Mutations either will have no effect, or increase or decrease the viruses ability to spread and replicate. It’s basically the definition of evolution. On top of which viral genomes, especially RNA viruses, mutate at such a rapid rate, evolution occurs quickly.
    - nitrogen 5y ago
      Mutation + selection = evolution.
      - crazydoggers 5y ago
- nradov 5y ago
  That's probably what happened with HCoV-OC43, a betacoronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2. The evidence indicates that it caused a worldwide pandemic starting in 1889 and killed a lot of people. Now it's endemic. Most of us catch it when we're young and build up natural immunity. There doesn't appear to be much herd immunity. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/
- prox 5y ago
  Flu ‘la grippe’ : 25000 people died a day in Paris in 1800 Spanish Flu of 1918 Several coronaviruses from cattle (can’t remember the exact name atm)
goldenkey 5y ago
Ah, blessed be another COVID-19 fear-porn article. I love how half of these articles are about the anxiety that the lockdowns cause while the other half of articles induce the anxiety if it didn't already exist within the reader. What a virtuous circle!
jpeloquin 5y ago
"Others are probing SARS-CoV-2 itself. In a preprint published this month, researchers tinkered with the virus to learn how much it has to change to evade the antibodies generated in vaccine recipients and recovered patients. They found that it took 20 changes to the spike protein to escape current antibody responses almost completely." It's great that we have the genetic engineering tech to do these experiments and identify new risks while there is still time to be proactive about them. My best guess for the preprint is [0]. Note that the virus they were using is a vesicular stomatitis virus modified so its replication depends on ACE-2 receptor binding via the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein, a copy of which was spliced in. They're not working with SARS-CoV-2 itself. This technically would count as "gain of function research", as recently popularized, and is an example of how the approach can help us identify and respond to emerging threats. It sounds like we may end up handling Covid exactly like the flu, with annual vaccines tailored to whatever strains seem most dangerous for the upcoming year. [0] https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.214759v1.full https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.214759v1....
- dmix 5y ago
  I’m curious how long it would take to adapt the mRNA vaccines to the new ones, if there was two changes. I’m assuming it’d have to reach quite a wide infection rate for them to tag a particular variant + development/manufacturing time. The other question that comes to mind is if they can package two different variants into one or would they just mix the two and keep building on top of existing ones? Unless the other ones get completely replaced.
  - mlyle 5y ago
    Making the mRNA in volume is the easy part. They can turn that around extremely quickly-- large prototype quantities in days, and begin ramping sharply in weeks. The hard part is the formulation chemistry and microfluidics and nanoparticles, which don't change based upon variant mix. Of course, the really hard part is approval, but we feel we understand influenza viruses and vaccines enough to have developed an expedited approval process each year. We should be able to do the same for COVID-19.
- 5y ago
KhayriRRW 5y ago
Omega variant, by the looks of it, would be 100% immune to current vaccines.
dmix 5y ago
Why don’t they link to any of the papers they reference? Or at least provide some better clues. > Something similar appears to have happened when a new H1N1 influenza strain emerged in 2009 and caused a pandemic, says Katia Kölle, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University. A 2015 paper found that changes in the virus in the first 2 years appeared to make the virus more adept at human-to-human transmission, whereas changes after 2011 were mostly to avoid human immunity. It doesn’t look like Katia Kölle wrote this one and searching keywords gave me a ton of other stuff.
- resist_futility 5y ago
  Phylodynamics of H1N1/2009 influenza reveals the transition from host adaptation to immune-driven selection https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918339/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918339/
mrkramer 5y ago
>What will the virus do next? Evolve that's what he's doing for the last billions of years.

97 points by lnyan 5y ago

Ah bless you - another COVID-19 fear porn article within 24 hours, this time with the nouveau storyline introduction that takes up 80% of the content before it gets to the point. Thank you OP, we couldn't have done it with you.

jjtheblunt 5y ago

How is the progression of SARS-CoV-2 different from that of every other endemic virus, and how have our vaccine distributions affected its evolution? Very neat article. For instance, are there other viruses which were devastating when they first hit a species, only to evolve to less devastating but eternal as the species collectively gets perhaps not herd immunity but herd resistance?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
addicted 5y ago
Isn’t this article basically discussing that? Looking at how other viruses have behaved and trying to analyze how COVID-19 may also potentially behave going forward, if it were to take the route of those other viruses?
- jjtheblunt 5y ago
  Yes, definitely I should have worded my comment more clearly.
crazydoggers 5y ago
Viral evolution is one of the primary factors around pretty much all virus progression and disease. It’s a major study in the field of epidemiology. Given that there’s still a lack of belief of evolution in the general public (polls put it around 40-50% in US) it’s not surprising that it’s not more talked about in the media. But in the scientific and medical community it was not even a question that the virus was going to evolve through multiple strains. Viral evolution is why we have yearly flu shots rather than 1 to cover a lifetime. Its also why HIV has been so hard to create a vaccine for. HIV is able to handle lots of mutations and still function, so it means there’s a multitude of strains. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_evolution https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_evolution
- telotortium 5y ago
  > Given that there’s still a lack of belief of evolution in the general public (polls put it around 40-50% in US) it’s not surprising that it’s not more talked about in the media. Lol - the intersection of people working in the media (especially mainstream media) and creationists is virtually the null set.
  - crazydoggers 5y ago
    If 50% of your market is offended by it you won’t talk about it. For media that caters to the other 50% it’s still a complex subject for media sound bites. Also you don’t have to be a “creationist” to not believe, although I guess it depends on that definition. But creationist makes it sound like it’s a tiny minority extremist group. Year after year multiple studies put non belief of evolution at at least 40%. I can almost guarantee a significant percentage of the media are likewise skeptical or non believers of evolution (they may be rather reserved and personal about it, but still effect their judgement or assessment of reporting on the topic)
- heartbreak 5y ago
  I don’t think “viral evolution” is a correct way to describe mutations during viral replication.
  - crazydoggers 5y ago
    That doesn’t even make sense. Mutations either will have no effect, or increase or decrease the viruses ability to spread and replicate. It’s basically the definition of evolution. On top of which viral genomes, especially RNA viruses, mutate at such a rapid rate, evolution occurs quickly.
  - nitrogen 5y ago
    Mutation + selection = evolution.
    - crazydoggers 5y ago
nradov 5y ago
That's probably what happened with HCoV-OC43, a betacoronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2. The evidence indicates that it caused a worldwide pandemic starting in 1889 and killed a lot of people. Now it's endemic. Most of us catch it when we're young and build up natural immunity. There doesn't appear to be much herd immunity. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/
prox 5y ago
Flu ‘la grippe’ : 25000 people died a day in Paris in 1800 Spanish Flu of 1918 Several coronaviruses from cattle (can’t remember the exact name atm)

goldenkey 5y ago

Ah, blessed be another COVID-19 fear-porn article. I love how half of these articles are about the anxiety that the lockdowns cause while the other half of articles induce the anxiety if it didn't already exist within the reader. What a virtuous circle!

jpeloquin 5y ago

"Others are probing SARS-CoV-2 itself. In a preprint published this month, researchers tinkered with the virus to learn how much it has to change to evade the antibodies generated in vaccine recipients and recovered patients. They found that it took 20 changes to the spike protein to escape current antibody responses almost completely." It's great that we have the genetic engineering tech to do these experiments and identify new risks while there is still time to be proactive about them. My best guess for the preprint is [0]. Note that the virus they were using is a vesicular stomatitis virus modified so its replication depends on ACE-2 receptor binding via the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein, a copy of which was spliced in. They're not working with SARS-CoV-2 itself. This technically would count as "gain of function research", as recently popularized, and is an example of how the approach can help us identify and respond to emerging threats. It sounds like we may end up handling Covid exactly like the flu, with annual vaccines tailored to whatever strains seem most dangerous for the upcoming year. [0] https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.214759v1.full https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.214759v1....

dmix 5y ago
I’m curious how long it would take to adapt the mRNA vaccines to the new ones, if there was two changes. I’m assuming it’d have to reach quite a wide infection rate for them to tag a particular variant + development/manufacturing time. The other question that comes to mind is if they can package two different variants into one or would they just mix the two and keep building on top of existing ones? Unless the other ones get completely replaced.
- mlyle 5y ago
  Making the mRNA in volume is the easy part. They can turn that around extremely quickly-- large prototype quantities in days, and begin ramping sharply in weeks. The hard part is the formulation chemistry and microfluidics and nanoparticles, which don't change based upon variant mix. Of course, the really hard part is approval, but we feel we understand influenza viruses and vaccines enough to have developed an expedited approval process each year. We should be able to do the same for COVID-19.
5y ago

KhayriRRW 5y ago

Omega variant, by the looks of it, would be 100% immune to current vaccines.

dmix 5y ago

Why don’t they link to any of the papers they reference? Or at least provide some better clues. > Something similar appears to have happened when a new H1N1 influenza strain emerged in 2009 and caused a pandemic, says Katia Kölle, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University. A 2015 paper found that changes in the virus in the first 2 years appeared to make the virus more adept at human-to-human transmission, whereas changes after 2011 were mostly to avoid human immunity. It doesn’t look like Katia Kölle wrote this one and searching keywords gave me a ton of other stuff.

resist_futility 5y ago
Phylodynamics of H1N1/2009 influenza reveals the transition from host adaptation to immune-driven selection https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918339/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918339/

mrkramer 5y ago

>What will the virus do next? Evolve that's what he's doing for the last billions of years.