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You have to be kidding. This strategy of lockdown, wear a mask, contact trace and wait for vaccines clearly isn't working. Are you suggesting that it would work

You have to be kidding. This strategy of lockdown, wear a mask, contact trace and wait for vaccines clearly isn't working. Are you suggesting that it would work if the government could track our locations better?

sokoloff 5y ago
It seems like places that actually did “lockdown, wear a mask, and contact trace” did better. (No place in the US did lock downs as far as I know. Several places in China did. When you’re welding steel together to enforce it, it’s probably a lock down. When you’re politely asking people to try to only go to stores once per day, it’s not a lockdown.)
- tazjin 5y ago
  Ah, the no true scotsman fallacy. If only we had destroyed our health and economy harder, it would have worked!
  - sokoloff 5y ago
    It was more an expression of frustration that what we did in the US was economically, psychologically, and socially destructive while not maximizing the possible benefit. I don’t know if the hill on the right or the one on the left had a higher peak, but it sure does seem like we managed to wade through the river in the valley in the middle. “Don’t let some businesses be open, but let some of their competitors stay open, wear a T-shirt over your mouth, and gather in groups of not more than six before dispersing to forage for food in the supermarkets as often as you like.” How could that possibly fail to contain a contagious disease?
  - TchoBeer 5y ago
    That's not what a no true Scotsman fallacy is, GP literally claimed that other countries did in fact take the necessary precautions and did better than us, which is would be a true Scotsman.
    - tazjin 5y ago
      It's exactly what it is, look: "Lockdowns work!" "Lockdowns didn't work in the West." "Those were no true lockdowns!" This is essentially the summary of the parent comment.
      - TchoBeer 5y ago
        Except the lockdowns in china were, according to GP, true lockdowns. Thus, there are true lockdowns. The no true Scotsman fallacy isn't just any time you clarify yourself.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Plenty of things in the world work like that. Half assing something often has worse side effects than whole-assing it. If we had 4 weeks of strict lockdowns and then returned to normal we would have both less covid, a better economy, and better mental health.
    - nradov 5y ago
      That's just wishful thinking. The virus is so highly contagious that as soon as the lockdown ended, the exponential spread would start up again. So forget it, most rational people aren't willing to tolerate more restrictions. At this point we need to focus on vaccinating as many people as possible and otherwise just accept the risk.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        I'm talking about the established reality of what actually happened, not speculation.
- chasd00 5y ago
  "When you’re welding steel together to enforce it" Is it not obvious that doesn't work in a normal, free society? It's painfully depressing to think otherwise.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Free societies do have provisions that allow for such things used with parsimony in times of great need. When you're enforcing an actual lockdown, thankfully it only takes a few weeks and people can go back to normal for the next 2-3 months. The tradeoff to liberty and freedom is more complex than it seems. For example, New Zealand did it successfully, and I'd say there was a lot more freedom thanks to the times with low restrictions despite the brief but strong lockdowns.
    - spookthesunset 5y ago
      NZ and AU have military in the streets to keep people in line. They are barely a good example of anything.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        So you believe that NZ is not a free society, but the US is?
        nsizx 5y ago
        Only the Sith deal in absolutes.
    - chasd00 5y ago
      no, it's not complex at all. A correctly functioning government would be scared to death at even the thought of forcing its citizens into their homes (or anywhere else). A government exists at the pleasure of the governed.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
- spookthesunset 5y ago
  Which is why if you plot the chart of any interesting data and compare it between regions they loom pretty much the same regardless of how “serious” the region took it. You can’t look at any of these charts and point to where mandates started and stopped. It’s almost as if they didn’t do a damn thing and in fact made things much worse.
CorrectHorseBat 5y ago
Not saying we should follow their lead, but China managed to do exactly that with stricter lockdowns, masks and contact tracing without regard for privacy. After the initial wave China was covid free, people could travel freely and the economy was booming.
- kook_throwaway 5y ago
  >After the initial wave China was covid free I don't believe this for one second.
- swiley 5y ago
  China is still locking cities down this year.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Very few of them, and briefly, yes. In total the average chinese citizen would have spent much less time in lockdown.
    - swiley 5y ago
      Considering that no one in my state spent time in lockdown this year (and mostly didn't last year either) I'm not sure I'd agree with that.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        Multiple cities in China didn't spend any time in lockdown this year either, so that's not a conclusive argument.
- kbelder 5y ago
  Nobody can look at the official covid numbers reported from China trended over time and believe they are true.

sokoloff 5y ago

It seems like places that actually did “lockdown, wear a mask, and contact trace” did better. (No place in the US did lock downs as far as I know. Several places in China did. When you’re welding steel together to enforce it, it’s probably a lock down. When you’re politely asking people to try to only go to stores once per day, it’s not a lockdown.)

tazjin 5y ago
Ah, the no true scotsman fallacy. If only we had destroyed our health and economy harder, it would have worked!
- sokoloff 5y ago
  It was more an expression of frustration that what we did in the US was economically, psychologically, and socially destructive while not maximizing the possible benefit. I don’t know if the hill on the right or the one on the left had a higher peak, but it sure does seem like we managed to wade through the river in the valley in the middle. “Don’t let some businesses be open, but let some of their competitors stay open, wear a T-shirt over your mouth, and gather in groups of not more than six before dispersing to forage for food in the supermarkets as often as you like.” How could that possibly fail to contain a contagious disease?
- TchoBeer 5y ago
  That's not what a no true Scotsman fallacy is, GP literally claimed that other countries did in fact take the necessary precautions and did better than us, which is would be a true Scotsman.
  - tazjin 5y ago
    It's exactly what it is, look: "Lockdowns work!" "Lockdowns didn't work in the West." "Those were no true lockdowns!" This is essentially the summary of the parent comment.
    - TchoBeer 5y ago
      Except the lockdowns in china were, according to GP, true lockdowns. Thus, there are true lockdowns. The no true Scotsman fallacy isn't just any time you clarify yourself.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Plenty of things in the world work like that. Half assing something often has worse side effects than whole-assing it. If we had 4 weeks of strict lockdowns and then returned to normal we would have both less covid, a better economy, and better mental health.
  - nradov 5y ago
    That's just wishful thinking. The virus is so highly contagious that as soon as the lockdown ended, the exponential spread would start up again. So forget it, most rational people aren't willing to tolerate more restrictions. At this point we need to focus on vaccinating as many people as possible and otherwise just accept the risk.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      I'm talking about the established reality of what actually happened, not speculation.
chasd00 5y ago
"When you’re welding steel together to enforce it" Is it not obvious that doesn't work in a normal, free society? It's painfully depressing to think otherwise.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Free societies do have provisions that allow for such things used with parsimony in times of great need. When you're enforcing an actual lockdown, thankfully it only takes a few weeks and people can go back to normal for the next 2-3 months. The tradeoff to liberty and freedom is more complex than it seems. For example, New Zealand did it successfully, and I'd say there was a lot more freedom thanks to the times with low restrictions despite the brief but strong lockdowns.
  - spookthesunset 5y ago
    NZ and AU have military in the streets to keep people in line. They are barely a good example of anything.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      So you believe that NZ is not a free society, but the US is?
      - nsizx 5y ago
        Only the Sith deal in absolutes.
  - chasd00 5y ago
    no, it's not complex at all. A correctly functioning government would be scared to death at even the thought of forcing its citizens into their homes (or anywhere else). A government exists at the pleasure of the governed.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
spookthesunset 5y ago
Which is why if you plot the chart of any interesting data and compare it between regions they loom pretty much the same regardless of how “serious” the region took it. You can’t look at any of these charts and point to where mandates started and stopped. It’s almost as if they didn’t do a damn thing and in fact made things much worse.

CorrectHorseBat 5y ago

Not saying we should follow their lead, but China managed to do exactly that with stricter lockdowns, masks and contact tracing without regard for privacy. After the initial wave China was covid free, people could travel freely and the economy was booming.

kook_throwaway 5y ago
>After the initial wave China was covid free I don't believe this for one second.
swiley 5y ago
China is still locking cities down this year.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Very few of them, and briefly, yes. In total the average chinese citizen would have spent much less time in lockdown.
  - swiley 5y ago
    Considering that no one in my state spent time in lockdown this year (and mostly didn't last year either) I'm not sure I'd agree with that.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      Multiple cities in China didn't spend any time in lockdown this year either, so that's not a conclusive argument.
kbelder 5y ago
Nobody can look at the official covid numbers reported from China trended over time and believe they are true.