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Fully autonomous cars are already a reality with Waymo in AZ and AutoX, Baidu in China. I don't know how safe the Chinese companies are, but Waymo's safety reco

by ra7 5y ago

Fully autonomous cars are already a reality with Waymo in AZ and AutoX, Baidu in China. I don't know how safe the Chinese companies are, but Waymo's safety record [1] is nothing short of stellar. [1] https://waymo.com/safety https://waymo.com/safety

ocdtrekkie 5y ago
Waymo selected the one state willing to entirely remove any safety reporting requirements for self-driving cars as the place to launch their service. Regardless of what they claim to the contrary, if they had confidence in their safety record, they would've launched it in California, not Arizona. Waymo has lied about the capabilities of their technology regularly, and for that reason alone, should be assumed unsafe. A former employee expressed disappointment they weren't the first self-driving car company to kill someone, because that meant they were behind.
- ra7 5y ago
  > Regardless of what they claim to the contrary, if they had confidence in their safety record, they would've launched it in California, not Arizona. California only months ago opened up permits for paid robotaxi rides. So no, they couldn't have launched it in CA. If you've noticed, they actually are testing in SF with a permit. > Waymo has lied about the capabilities of their technology regularly, and for that reason alone, should be assumed unsafe. What lies? Their CA disengagement miles are for everyone to see, their safety report is open, they have had 0 fatalities in their years of operation. Seems like you just made this up.
  - ocdtrekkie 5y ago
    I recall a particular incident where Waymo was marketing their car being able to drive a blind man to a drive-thru, way before the thing could safely drive more than a mile on it's own. My understanding is that in 2021, it still can't navigate parking lots (which would preclude using it for drive-thrus). Later, they were talking about how sophisticated their technology was: It can detect the hand signals of someone directing traffic in the middle of an intersection. Funny that a few months later, a journalist got an admission out of a Waymo engineer that the car wouldn't even stop at a stoplight unless the stoplight was explicitly mapped (with centimeter-level precision) so the car knew to look for it and where to look for the signal. https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/08/28/171520/hidden-obstacles-for-googles-self-driving-cars/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/08/28/171520/hidden-ob... The article is seven years old at this point, but it's also incredibly humbling in how much bull- Waymo puts out, especially compared to the impressions their marketing team puts out. (Urmson's son presumably has a driver's license by now.) In at least one scenario, the former Waymo engineer upset he had failed to kill anyone yet ("I’m pissed we didn’t have the first death"), caused a hit-and-run accident with a Waymo car, and didn't report it to authorities, amongst other serious accidents: https://www.salon.com/2018/10/16/googles-self-driving-cars-involved-in-unreported-crashes/ https://www.salon.com/2018/10/16/googles-self-driving-cars-i... Said star Waymo engineer eventually went to prison for stealing trade secrets and then got pardoned by Donald Trump. Google didn't fire him for trying to kill people, they only really got upset with him because he took their tech to Uber. I'd say Waymo has a storied history of dishonesty and coverups, behind a technology that's more or less a remote control car that only runs in a narrow group of carefully premapped streets.
    - ra7 5y ago
      > I recall a particular incident where Waymo was marketing their car being able to drive a blind man to a drive-thru, way before the thing could safely drive more than a mile on it's own. How is a marketing video relevant from 2015 relevant to their safety record? They weren't even operating a public robotaxi service back then. > My understanding is that in 2021, it still can't navigate parking lots (which would preclude using it for drive-thrus). Completely false. Here is one navigating a Costco parking lot (can't get any busier than that) [1]. If you watch any videos in that YouTube channel, it picks you up and drops you off right from the parking lot. Yes, you can't use it for drive-thrus, but it doesn't qualify as "lying about capabilities". > Later, they were talking about how sophisticated their technology was: It can detect the hand signals of someone directing traffic in the middle of an intersection. Funny that a few months later, a journalist got an admission out of a Waymo engineer that the car wouldn't even stop at a stoplight unless the stoplight was explicitly mapped (with centimeter-level precision) so the car knew to look for it and where to look for the signal. Here is one recognizing a handheld stop sign from a police officer while it stopped for an emergency vehicle [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5CXcJD3mcU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5CXcJD3mcU [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpDbX1FViWk&t=75s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpDbX1FViWk&t=75s
      - nradov 5y ago
        The workers doing road repairs in my neighborhood don't even use handheld stop signs. Just vague and confusing gestures.
        ra7 5y ago
        I think in those cases a Waymo vehicle would probably require remote assistance. It's a really difficult scenario for a computer to make sense of.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > California only months ago opened up permits for paid robotaxi rides. So no, they couldn't have launched it in CA. Well, yeah, that's the logic of an established business. Disruptive startups flout laws rather than following them.
ghaff 5y ago
Good for Waymo and hopefully Google keeps up this science project. But it's a very limited and almost as perfect an environment as you could have outside of a controlled test area. Those who were saying L4/5 would be decades at least away seem to be those who were on the right track. Kids growing up today are going to have to learn to drive.
- ra7 5y ago
  L5 may be decades away. I think we will see L4 in some major metro areas in the US by end of this decade. SF is heating up with Cruise and Waymo's heavy testing. Their progress will be a great indicator for true city driving.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    >we will see L4 in some major metro areas in the US by end of this decade I think you're far more likely to see L4 on limited access highways in good weather. A robotaxi service in a major city seems much more problematic given all the random behavior by other cars, pedestrians, cyclists, etc. and picking up/dropping off people in the fairly random ways that taxis/Ubers do. (And you'll rightly be shut down 6 months for an investigation the first time you run over someone even if they weren't crossing at a crosswalk.) And for many people, including myself, automated highway driving would actually be a much bigger win than urban taxi rides which I rarely have a need for.

by ra7 5y ago

ocdtrekkie 5y ago

Waymo selected the one state willing to entirely remove any safety reporting requirements for self-driving cars as the place to launch their service. Regardless of what they claim to the contrary, if they had confidence in their safety record, they would've launched it in California, not Arizona. Waymo has lied about the capabilities of their technology regularly, and for that reason alone, should be assumed unsafe. A former employee expressed disappointment they weren't the first self-driving car company to kill someone, because that meant they were behind.

ra7 5y ago
> Regardless of what they claim to the contrary, if they had confidence in their safety record, they would've launched it in California, not Arizona. California only months ago opened up permits for paid robotaxi rides. So no, they couldn't have launched it in CA. If you've noticed, they actually are testing in SF with a permit. > Waymo has lied about the capabilities of their technology regularly, and for that reason alone, should be assumed unsafe. What lies? Their CA disengagement miles are for everyone to see, their safety report is open, they have had 0 fatalities in their years of operation. Seems like you just made this up.
- ocdtrekkie 5y ago
  I recall a particular incident where Waymo was marketing their car being able to drive a blind man to a drive-thru, way before the thing could safely drive more than a mile on it's own. My understanding is that in 2021, it still can't navigate parking lots (which would preclude using it for drive-thrus). Later, they were talking about how sophisticated their technology was: It can detect the hand signals of someone directing traffic in the middle of an intersection. Funny that a few months later, a journalist got an admission out of a Waymo engineer that the car wouldn't even stop at a stoplight unless the stoplight was explicitly mapped (with centimeter-level precision) so the car knew to look for it and where to look for the signal. https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/08/28/171520/hidden-obstacles-for-googles-self-driving-cars/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/08/28/171520/hidden-ob... The article is seven years old at this point, but it's also incredibly humbling in how much bull- Waymo puts out, especially compared to the impressions their marketing team puts out. (Urmson's son presumably has a driver's license by now.) In at least one scenario, the former Waymo engineer upset he had failed to kill anyone yet ("I’m pissed we didn’t have the first death"), caused a hit-and-run accident with a Waymo car, and didn't report it to authorities, amongst other serious accidents: https://www.salon.com/2018/10/16/googles-self-driving-cars-involved-in-unreported-crashes/ https://www.salon.com/2018/10/16/googles-self-driving-cars-i... Said star Waymo engineer eventually went to prison for stealing trade secrets and then got pardoned by Donald Trump. Google didn't fire him for trying to kill people, they only really got upset with him because he took their tech to Uber. I'd say Waymo has a storied history of dishonesty and coverups, behind a technology that's more or less a remote control car that only runs in a narrow group of carefully premapped streets.
  - ra7 5y ago
    > I recall a particular incident where Waymo was marketing their car being able to drive a blind man to a drive-thru, way before the thing could safely drive more than a mile on it's own. How is a marketing video relevant from 2015 relevant to their safety record? They weren't even operating a public robotaxi service back then. > My understanding is that in 2021, it still can't navigate parking lots (which would preclude using it for drive-thrus). Completely false. Here is one navigating a Costco parking lot (can't get any busier than that) [1]. If you watch any videos in that YouTube channel, it picks you up and drops you off right from the parking lot. Yes, you can't use it for drive-thrus, but it doesn't qualify as "lying about capabilities". > Later, they were talking about how sophisticated their technology was: It can detect the hand signals of someone directing traffic in the middle of an intersection. Funny that a few months later, a journalist got an admission out of a Waymo engineer that the car wouldn't even stop at a stoplight unless the stoplight was explicitly mapped (with centimeter-level precision) so the car knew to look for it and where to look for the signal. Here is one recognizing a handheld stop sign from a police officer while it stopped for an emergency vehicle [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5CXcJD3mcU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5CXcJD3mcU [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpDbX1FViWk&t=75s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpDbX1FViWk&t=75s
    - nradov 5y ago
      The workers doing road repairs in my neighborhood don't even use handheld stop signs. Just vague and confusing gestures.
      - ra7 5y ago
        I think in those cases a Waymo vehicle would probably require remote assistance. It's a really difficult scenario for a computer to make sense of.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > California only months ago opened up permits for paid robotaxi rides. So no, they couldn't have launched it in CA. Well, yeah, that's the logic of an established business. Disruptive startups flout laws rather than following them.

ghaff 5y ago

Good for Waymo and hopefully Google keeps up this science project. But it's a very limited and almost as perfect an environment as you could have outside of a controlled test area. Those who were saying L4/5 would be decades at least away seem to be those who were on the right track. Kids growing up today are going to have to learn to drive.

ra7 5y ago
L5 may be decades away. I think we will see L4 in some major metro areas in the US by end of this decade. SF is heating up with Cruise and Waymo's heavy testing. Their progress will be a great indicator for true city driving.
- ghaff 5y ago
  >we will see L4 in some major metro areas in the US by end of this decade I think you're far more likely to see L4 on limited access highways in good weather. A robotaxi service in a major city seems much more problematic given all the random behavior by other cars, pedestrians, cyclists, etc. and picking up/dropping off people in the fairly random ways that taxis/Ubers do. (And you'll rightly be shut down 6 months for an investigation the first time you run over someone even if they weren't crossing at a crosswalk.) And for many people, including myself, automated highway driving would actually be a much bigger win than urban taxi rides which I rarely have a need for.