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Agreed. I fear the cold calculus is ... Afghanistan is strategically important for Russia, not the U.S., and making it peaceful is actually not in the best inte

Agreed. I fear the cold calculus is ... Afghanistan is strategically important for Russia, not the U.S., and making it peaceful is actually not in the best interests of the U.S. If Russia wants a path to a warm-water port, then it can deal with it. I have no evidence of this, so just speculating on the actual motives.

SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
I don't think it makes sense to speculate about a hidden calculus here, because the US military leadership and national security establishment were uniformly opposed to withdrawing from Afghanistan. The pressure to withdraw came from the general public.
orange_website 5y ago
I don't concretely know what's happening, but I have an idea. Why didn't the US State Department see the failure of the fledgling and corrupt democratic Afghanistan government? The US should have pulled out 10 years ago, or if it was actually interested in the strategic nature of Afghanistan, it could have arranged to purchase permanent bases independent of the Afghan government, fortify them, install missiles, occupy the Khyber Pass, block China/Russia, shore up rare earths, etc. So why didn't we take these actions sooner if we knew the government couldn't handle it? Incompetence? Too many cooks? My guess is that we were still interested in Afghanistan, but that this is a new shift in geopolitics. It's a chess move, and not one originated by the Trump or the Biden administration directly. My guess is that this is being done to appease Putin. The US is softening up on its approach to Russia as a regional counter against China. This is more important than having forces on the ground in Afghanistan (which have to fly in over Pakistan anyway). And of course it's more important than building and propping up democracies. If it weren't, we'd still be there. The story to look at now is China. This is a chess move in that story. Just my thoughts. I could be wrong.
- wyldfire 5y ago
  > Why didn't the US State Department see the failure of the fledgling and corrupt democratic Afghanistan government? They almost certainly did, but they serve the foreign policy directives of the executive-at-the-time. > The US should have pulled out 10 years ago, Of course, but there's nearly no upside to breaking this status quo. It's all downside. Biden will take this hit because it looks embarrassing to withdraw and leave people worse off than when we found them. I agree with you: his predecessors should have done it.
beerandt 5y ago
China's got plans for one of it's new trade routes going through there, as well.

SpicyLemonZest 5y ago

I don't think it makes sense to speculate about a hidden calculus here, because the US military leadership and national security establishment were uniformly opposed to withdrawing from Afghanistan. The pressure to withdraw came from the general public.

orange_website 5y ago

I don't concretely know what's happening, but I have an idea. Why didn't the US State Department see the failure of the fledgling and corrupt democratic Afghanistan government? The US should have pulled out 10 years ago, or if it was actually interested in the strategic nature of Afghanistan, it could have arranged to purchase permanent bases independent of the Afghan government, fortify them, install missiles, occupy the Khyber Pass, block China/Russia, shore up rare earths, etc. So why didn't we take these actions sooner if we knew the government couldn't handle it? Incompetence? Too many cooks? My guess is that we were still interested in Afghanistan, but that this is a new shift in geopolitics. It's a chess move, and not one originated by the Trump or the Biden administration directly. My guess is that this is being done to appease Putin. The US is softening up on its approach to Russia as a regional counter against China. This is more important than having forces on the ground in Afghanistan (which have to fly in over Pakistan anyway). And of course it's more important than building and propping up democracies. If it weren't, we'd still be there. The story to look at now is China. This is a chess move in that story. Just my thoughts. I could be wrong.

wyldfire 5y ago
> Why didn't the US State Department see the failure of the fledgling and corrupt democratic Afghanistan government? They almost certainly did, but they serve the foreign policy directives of the executive-at-the-time. > The US should have pulled out 10 years ago, Of course, but there's nearly no upside to breaking this status quo. It's all downside. Biden will take this hit because it looks embarrassing to withdraw and leave people worse off than when we found them. I agree with you: his predecessors should have done it.

beerandt 5y ago

China's got plans for one of it's new trade routes going through there, as well.