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Primarily the people holding the ~$137 trillion in US household assets are paying for it (along with the share of all USD-priced assets being held by foreigners
by adventured 5y ago
Primarily the people holding the ~$137 trillion in US household assets are paying for it (along with the share of all USD-priced assets being held by foreigners). Very little of that value is held in cash. Anything priced in dollars is affected, not just USD cash positions. US housing is priced in dollars, as one example.
If they 'print' large sums to fund the forever budget deficits, it also debases the value of US stocks as well (it debases the sales/earnings of the businesses (to the extent their earnings are USD-related), and their share prices). In the case of stocks, there's a chance the businesses can outrun or keep up with the debt monetization destruction to an extent (varying by the growth of the company in question). Cash savings on the other hand, which is presently yielding next to nothing, that takes a near full shot from any loss of value by the dollar.
The present consumer inflationary pressure will recede as US growth implodes back toward mediocrity (this decade the US will struggle to average above 1.5-2.3% annual GDP growth). Then we'll be back to a scenario not dramatically different from much of 2010-2019 (where perma low interest rates and huge budget deficits did not spur dramatic traditional inflation). To keep inflationary pressure elevated in the face of mediocre economic growth, they'll have to keep sending people stimulus checks constantly and there will have to be persistent global supply chain problems. Otherwise you end up with the Japan scenario, where they ran extraordinary budget deficits far beyond anything the US has done so far (relative to the economy in question), and still couldn't spur traditional inflation. That's because the debt being accumulated at low yield rates acts as a heat sink, it essentially eats the capital (the capital goes into the freezer, yields jack squat, and never comes back out; an ever greater share of the nation's supposed wealth ends up in the freezer yielding eg 0.5% per year, it's basically dead at that point) that would otherwise be out there in the economy sloshing around spurring far worse inflationary problems.
- fzzzy 5y agoGood points, thanks. The point I was trying to make is just that cash positions will bear the brunt of the money printing. Outstanding mortgage and other debt still benefits from the low interest rates and the fact that cheaper money in the future will pay back the loan. Do you think inflation will fall back to normal levels because consumers will not have enough money to pay for the inflated prices producers will be demanding? If that causes US growth to implode as you hypothesize, I think that will lead to quite a depression. Interest rates at 0 can't help at that point. If they keep sending people stimulus checks forever, it seems that portends extreme continued inflation, since the govt. is giving out free dollars with no way to reclaim them in the future. So I really feel the most realistic outcome for the US is the Japan scenario unfortunately.