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We probably would have been able to contain the wider spread of this virus had politicians shut down all non necessary air travel immediately after WHO/China of

We probably would have been able to contain the wider spread of this virus had politicians shut down all non necessary air travel immediately after WHO/China officially declared a potential pandemic incoming in January 2020. They are all culpable. All but Jacinda Ardern, very smart government that one. The need for speed: “Three days after WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on 30 January 2020, New Zealand began introducing disease prevention measures and continued strengthening them in the weeks that followed.” https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/feature-stories/detail/new-zealand-takes-early-and-hard-action-to-tackle-covid-19 https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/feature-stories/deta...

josephcsible 5y ago
Why do you say "air travel" and not "international travel"? Before COVID got here, domestic air travel was perfectly safe, and a boat from China is just as capable of carrying COVID as a plane from China is.
- musha68k 5y ago
  I agree especially in dense places like Europe (thinking of Italy outbreak) early border shutdown for non essential travelling would have helped in addition down the line. I’m not sure boat travel is comparable to air travel in both mass and interconnection around the globe. It would probably have also been warranted but main driver here was globalization / air travel.
nradov 5y ago
No that wouldn't have allowed for containing the spread. All it takes is one carrier getting through from "necessary" air travel or illegal immigration or whatever and then the exponential spread starts in a new area. Thus uncontrolled spread was inevitable in most countries. The only exceptions are a few isolated places like New Zealand which can actually control all arrivals.
- musha68k 5y ago
  Fewer cases means tracking them is still feasible. Exponential growth can only happen after officials are overwhelmed with cases. Shutting down air travel probably would have relieved pressure enough to follow up on cases - doubling rate tells us beginning of February would still have bought us the necessary time. Beginning of March to mid of March it was game over already I agree.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Case tracking hasn't really been effective even in areas with limited spread. It's a failed strategy. Exponential growth starts immediately as soon as there's one contagious carrier, although it takes a couple weeks for absolute numbers to grow really large.
    - musha68k 5y ago
      What about South Korea? Mask mandates? In addition to lockdowns. I mean it’s multiple things that politicians and officials had to get right of course. Unfortunately >90% really failed us on that practically everywhere.
      - nradov 5y ago
        South Korea has a growing number of cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-kore... Mask mandates can be marginally useful in slowing down the spread on a temporary, limited basis. But they're obviously unsustainable. The virus is here to stay and asymptomatic people aren't going to wear masks forever. Much of the spread takes place inside private homes where no one wears masks.
        musha68k 5y ago
        I thought we were still talking about the beginning of the pandemic? South Korea did fend off the virus through contact tracing, mask mandates and lockdowns early on. Unfortunately most other countries did too little too late which was my original point. The result being that by now we have a full blown ever-pandemic at hand - which includes South Korea by definition.

josephcsible 5y ago

Why do you say "air travel" and not "international travel"? Before COVID got here, domestic air travel was perfectly safe, and a boat from China is just as capable of carrying COVID as a plane from China is.

musha68k 5y ago
I agree especially in dense places like Europe (thinking of Italy outbreak) early border shutdown for non essential travelling would have helped in addition down the line. I’m not sure boat travel is comparable to air travel in both mass and interconnection around the globe. It would probably have also been warranted but main driver here was globalization / air travel.

nradov 5y ago

No that wouldn't have allowed for containing the spread. All it takes is one carrier getting through from "necessary" air travel or illegal immigration or whatever and then the exponential spread starts in a new area. Thus uncontrolled spread was inevitable in most countries. The only exceptions are a few isolated places like New Zealand which can actually control all arrivals.

musha68k 5y ago
Fewer cases means tracking them is still feasible. Exponential growth can only happen after officials are overwhelmed with cases. Shutting down air travel probably would have relieved pressure enough to follow up on cases - doubling rate tells us beginning of February would still have bought us the necessary time. Beginning of March to mid of March it was game over already I agree.
- nradov 5y ago
  Case tracking hasn't really been effective even in areas with limited spread. It's a failed strategy. Exponential growth starts immediately as soon as there's one contagious carrier, although it takes a couple weeks for absolute numbers to grow really large.
  - musha68k 5y ago
    What about South Korea? Mask mandates? In addition to lockdowns. I mean it’s multiple things that politicians and officials had to get right of course. Unfortunately >90% really failed us on that practically everywhere.
    - nradov 5y ago
      South Korea has a growing number of cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-kore... Mask mandates can be marginally useful in slowing down the spread on a temporary, limited basis. But they're obviously unsustainable. The virus is here to stay and asymptomatic people aren't going to wear masks forever. Much of the spread takes place inside private homes where no one wears masks.
      - musha68k 5y ago
        I thought we were still talking about the beginning of the pandemic? South Korea did fend off the virus through contact tracing, mask mandates and lockdowns early on. Unfortunately most other countries did too little too late which was my original point. The result being that by now we have a full blown ever-pandemic at hand - which includes South Korea by definition.