3 ms·

Lets say that only 1% die. 20% needed high-end medical intervention to not die. Once the infection rate hits a threshhold, the entire 20% die.

josephcsible 5y ago
Source on your 20% number? That sounds really, really high.
- hnzix 5y ago
  Hospitals hit capacity and run out of beds and ventilators. This is a hard threshold. Once you pass it, mortality goes through the roof.
  - josephcsible 5y ago
    My point is even if hospitals were closed completely, it still seems unlikely that 20% of people who catch COVID would die from it.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - nradov 5y ago
    Running out of ventilators would have minimal impact on the mortality rate. Mechanical ventilation is currently only used as a last resort for <5% of hospitalized patients, and even with ventilators many of those patients don't survive. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/nhcs/intubation-ventilator-use.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/nhcs/intubation-ventilator-... Beds can be added on a temporary basis. Availability of trained healthcare providers is the more relevant limit.
- techrat 5y ago
  For every person in the hospital due to covid is another person not able to receive care. Hospital beds aren't unlimited. ICU beds full? Someone has a heart attack? Well, sucks to be them. That's the part of covid everyone is ignoring: it creates an additional burden on the health care system, hospitals that normally are booked solid for surgeries can no longer handle those cases due to the emergency influx from a pandemic spreading like wildfire.
nradov 5y ago
Your numbers are way off. The CDC estimates that since the start of the pandemic the hospitalization rate has been 5% and the fatality rate has been 0.6%. Of the hospitalized patients only a fraction needed high-end medical intervention such as mechanical ventilation. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... The hospitalization and fatality rates are far lower now for vaccinated people.
- rstuart4133 5y ago
  0.6% die, and some rather rubbery number end up with symptoms lasting from 6 weeks, or 6 months, or something. The rubbery number is sometimes quoted as 1/3 of people who enter hospital, which if 5% enter hospital would mean about 2% of the population die or are so incapacitated they can't work for some number of months. By comparison, just about everybody hospitalised for flu is fully recovered in 2 weeks. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/long-covid https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/long-covid 2% is getting up there. Even if 75% avoid that fate by getting vaccinated, incapacitating 2% of the remainder will be enough to send us into a deep recession.

josephcsible 5y ago

Source on your 20% number? That sounds really, really high.

hnzix 5y ago
Hospitals hit capacity and run out of beds and ventilators. This is a hard threshold. Once you pass it, mortality goes through the roof.
- josephcsible 5y ago
  My point is even if hospitals were closed completely, it still seems unlikely that 20% of people who catch COVID would die from it.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- nradov 5y ago
  Running out of ventilators would have minimal impact on the mortality rate. Mechanical ventilation is currently only used as a last resort for <5% of hospitalized patients, and even with ventilators many of those patients don't survive. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/nhcs/intubation-ventilator-use.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/nhcs/intubation-ventilator-... Beds can be added on a temporary basis. Availability of trained healthcare providers is the more relevant limit.
techrat 5y ago
For every person in the hospital due to covid is another person not able to receive care. Hospital beds aren't unlimited. ICU beds full? Someone has a heart attack? Well, sucks to be them. That's the part of covid everyone is ignoring: it creates an additional burden on the health care system, hospitals that normally are booked solid for surgeries can no longer handle those cases due to the emergency influx from a pandemic spreading like wildfire.

nradov 5y ago

Your numbers are way off. The CDC estimates that since the start of the pandemic the hospitalization rate has been 5% and the fatality rate has been 0.6%. Of the hospitalized patients only a fraction needed high-end medical intervention such as mechanical ventilation. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... The hospitalization and fatality rates are far lower now for vaccinated people.

rstuart4133 5y ago
0.6% die, and some rather rubbery number end up with symptoms lasting from 6 weeks, or 6 months, or something. The rubbery number is sometimes quoted as 1/3 of people who enter hospital, which if 5% enter hospital would mean about 2% of the population die or are so incapacitated they can't work for some number of months. By comparison, just about everybody hospitalised for flu is fully recovered in 2 weeks. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/long-covid https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/long-covid 2% is getting up there. Even if 75% avoid that fate by getting vaccinated, incapacitating 2% of the remainder will be enough to send us into a deep recession.